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darthsummer

The Usual Suspects
Member Since
Apr. 16, 2019
Favourite Team
Columbus Blue Jackets
2nd Favourite Team
Vegas Golden Knights
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Forum: Columbus Blue JacketsMar. 25, 2023 at 8:54 p.m.
Thread: Elvis Sells Merchandise But…
Cap Hit Calculations
SEASON INITIAL BASE SALARY INITIAL CAP HIT SIGNING BONUS BUYOUT COST POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS SAVINGS CAP HIT (Logo of the Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ)
2023-24 $6,000,000 $5,400,000 $0 $1,812,500 $1,812,500 $4,187,500 $1,212,500
2024-25 $6,000,000 $5,400,000 $0 $1,812,500 $1,812,500 $4,187,500 $1,212,500
2025-26 $5,525,000 $5,400,000 $0 $1,812,500 $1,812,500 $3,712,500 $1,687,500
2026-27 $4,225,000 $5,400,000 $0 $1,812,500 $1,812,500 $2,412,500 $2,987,500
2027-28 $0 $0 $0 $1,812,500 $1,812,500 -$1,812,500 $1,812,500
2028-29 $0 $0 $0 $1,812,500 $1,812,500 -$1,812,500 $1,812,500
2029-30 $0 $0 $0 $1,812,500 $1,812,500 -$1,812,500 $1,812,500
2030-31 $0 $0 $0 $1,812,500 $1,812,500 -$1,812,500 $1,812,500
TOTAL $21,750,000 $21,600,000 $0 $14,500,000 $14,500,000 $7,250,000 $14,350,000
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsMar. 21, 2023 at 8:58 p.m.
Thread: If CBJ gets 1 overall enough or too much
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>budgeteam</b></div><div>Disagree.
They probably would want Slafkovski instead of Hutson. There is no guarantee Hutson signs with CBJ since he can play out his college career and go the UFA route, and CBJ traditionally is not a desirable signing location.</div></div>

Hate that the desirability of Columbus still comes up, but that is a perception. Has been an issue for established FAs weighing a confluence of factors, but save for the occasional Russian (as it has been most everywhere), not a prospect issue that I can recall. Hutson was born just a state away and would join a handful of Michiganders with CBJ.

That said, yeah, CBJ likely would see more upside in the #1 overall pick than the #62 overall pick.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsMar. 20, 2023 at 4:29 p.m.
Thread: If CBJ gets 1 overall enough or too much
What they all said. Columbus has only drafted one star in its history (Rick Nash). They cannot take the chance of missing out on the chance that Bedard is a sliver of McDavid or Crosby.

But to be fair, I’ll answer your question. That is not enough. Actually, that’s the wrong answer to the wrong question. Enough seems to imply quantity. CBJ has had too many mid-first round caliber (tier four) players, way too many tweener picks (late first, early second) and WAY, WAY, WAY too many 50-75 overall players. They can trot out third lines for days and days on end.

Throw in a handful of high-but-not-elite picks/players and you have the Jackets. Or this package. Or both.

This upcoming draft has one franchise player. One more elite player (Fantilli). One final reliably predictable near future impact player (Carlsson). [Michkov brings the typical Russian delay questions, plus the added ones in the 2023 climate. Plus, CBJ have a bad history with top-5 Russians.] The Canadiens 2023 pick would fall outside all of those players, into a tier “Tankathon” classifies as “the rest.” At best, in a different draft, it yields a B+ player (Jiricek, Kent Johnson). This year, the cliff seems to drop after the top four.

The Panthers pick and Caufield fall in the Sillinger/Mateychuk range. You get a 2.5 line forward or 2nd pair defenseman with a deficiency somewhere in his game. You need those players on your team. But if your team is nothing BUT those players, you win just two playoff series in franchise history (one of which barely counts, as it was a bonus COVID round plus a freebie since it was against Toronto).

The rest (unless the Habs 1st ‘24 ends up like top 3) are just lottery tickets. You might get a Sebastian Aho. Or you might get the other Sebastian Aho. Not a sound way to build a franchise. A solid way to add final pieces to a contender, but not the path from last to first.

Bedard is clearly the prize, and any trade discussions are a non-starter. Unless you’re willing to include Shane Wright. Oh wait…
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 3, 2023 at 7:43 p.m.
Thread: (CBJ/MIN) - Nyquist for 2023 5th round pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensonfire</b></div><div>Nyquist will not be available for Minnesota at any point in the regular season due to injury.

He might be available for one playoff round or two.

But even then, he's still a rental.

Fair deal IMO.</div></div>

Yeah, never was a debate if he’s a rental. Most players just traded are, with the express purpose of improving teams FOR the playoffs. Given that, players with skill sets comparable to Nyquist easily went for more than a fifth round pick.

By the way, updates in Columbus for weeks have reported Nyquist to be well on track to return by the start of the playoffs. And after the league memo, I would be shocked if the Wild did NOT activate him during the regular season, if only for the last day or few.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 3, 2023 at 12:02 p.m.
Thread: (CHI/DAL) - Domi, Wells for Khudobin and 2025 2nd
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>Domi isn't worth a second and Khudobin helps them for the tank. CHI wins</div></div>

Leafsfan, eh? This is not a personal attack, but you should know better than most the cost of taking only half-measures to plug any cracks in a squad with the talent to win the Cup (or at least a series). GMs are way too attached to draft picks. It’s like desperately collecting spent sperm because of what it could, might, possibly, maybe become in the distant future.

<em>

The rough math on a second round pick to stick as an everyday NHL player is 50%. If you give an average GM an average draft class and single picks in rounds 3-7, that group has roughly a 50% chance to produce a single everyday NHL player as well. {Really rough estimates here, especially since I’m not putting date parameters on the set, but if someone has more accurate and precise data, please confirm or correct me.}

First round picks have better odds, yet… Even in the first, only the top three tiers are generally considered locks or very safe bets. In 2023, that group currently consists of just eight (8!) prospects. Sometimes a fourth tier will materialize ahead of “the rest” tier. Being generous, the window might open as far as the top half of the round, but no more, if even that. Not saying, by any means, that other players won’t stick. Turn into stars, even. But over the course of time, multiple drafts, sheer numbers….. data will regress to the mean. All the more reason for losing teams to stockpile picks/prospects, in a brute force attack toward finding success. And all the more reason for a team positioned to realistically win now to take all steps and pay all tolls in pursuit of that goal.

Winning is permanent, forever. The Stanley Cup champs will forever be in the history books (or at least that’s the way history USED TO work). They will be permanently engraved on the Stanley Cup. (Well, for ~85 years.) Go for it, and success begets success. Winning attracts FAs at a discount, offsetting many of those lost picks.</em>
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 3, 2023 at 11:33 a.m.
Thread: (CHI/DAL) - Domi, Wells for Khudobin and 2025 2nd
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jr400</b></div><div>With the season he’s having and a solid playoff contribution in Carolina last year, I thought Domi would be one of the more sought-after rentals this year, so a 2nd two years into the future seems like an underwhelming return to me. Including Khudobin was a good idea though, because it makes the cap hit work for Dallas and lets Chicago keep their last retention slot in case they have a chance to make another trade today. There’s no impact on Chicago beyond this season because he’s in the last year of the contract he signed after leading Dallas to the final in 2020.</div></div>

Not as quick myself to heavily discount future (2025 and beyond) picks. Dallas sits well poised to win the Central, pegging its ‘23 picks to the end of the rounds. Now, after Carolina, they might be the top tier team best set up for continued future success, but none of that is guaranteed. Could really improve the value of the pick.

(Off the top of my head, Duchene to Ottawa comes to mind. With that pick bypassing just one draft and moving to the next season, it landed at #4 overall. More recently, MTL went from Cup Finalists to dead last in just one season. Now that first Habs team overperformed while the rest of Division Team Canada: World Police laid an egg in those playoffs, but point is, good things come to those who wait. I know I would be trying to stockpile 2025-27 picks from BOS and TBL rather than their 2023 counterparts.)

Anyway, CHI is already flush with picks in the top two rounds in ‘23, and well-set in ‘24 (even better if Kane conditions trigger). With future picks, they can stagger prospects, avoid clogging the pipeline, and have spare, valuable assets for years to come.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 3, 2023 at 11:16 a.m.
Thread: (CHI/DAL) - Domi, Wells for Khudobin and 2025 2nd
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BCAPP</b></div><div>What makes you say he isn't good "anymore".</div></div>

He might never have lived up to superstar, individual excellence expectations placed on a first round, second generation prospect. But that’s not the only way to be an NHL contributor or even high level player. And an individual style has never been Domi’s game. He performa better with higher level players around him, but more critically, he adds value to the players around him. He raises their game.

Plus, a Jack of all trades, which I will never state as or consider an insult. If likening him to Shawn Marion of the Phoenix Suns is too dated or attenuated (nicknamed “The Matrix” for how he would contribute to every data column of the scoresheet), a Swiss-army knife metaphor also suits. Plus, pressing L1 + R1 together when the meter fills unlocks temporary “Tie Domi” mode. Max’s game is not built around or tethered to his father’s identity, but he learned from pops and can bring the energy, rage, and “pop” of Domi V1.0 when appropriate.

In my assessment, Domi’s game has stayed consistent throughout his career; traditional stats have only fluctuated due to his team, role, and effectiveness of utilization. Good on CHI getting a second round pick—the odds for NHL success drop dramatically for players selected outside the top 60. But he is precisely the player that any team and especially any playoff team should covet. If you’re already destined for the playoffs, you have specialists who can snipe or play-make or run point on a PP. Domi will not carry a team but will make any team better overall.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 3, 2023 at 10:39 a.m.
Thread: (CHI/DAL) - Domi, Wells for Khudobin and 2025 2nd
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>Bettman teams dont tank

Once Athinoseau gets traded Hawks lineup is a yikes and a half</div></div>

Chicago does this, and Kyle D is praised hourly. Arizona and they’re lambasted as a joke of an organization which needs to be forcibly exiled to Quebec.

Not exact apples to apples in all organizational respects, but each have their flaws as well. (ARZ was not the one of these teams with an ugly scandal that was buried for a decade and ruined lives.) And both teams are putting AHL-caliber lineups on the ice for the rest of this season.

I’m a neutral in this; actually, grew up a Roenick/Blackhawks fan before my state/region landed a franchise. Just calling out a double standard as I see it.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 2, 2023 at 11:38 p.m.
Thread: (ARI/EDM) - Bjugstad, Dineen for Kesselring
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dopplsan</b></div><div>You ain’t wrong, objectively it’s hard to say AZ made the wrong move.

It’s more just the propounding effect here. Eating $15M+ on LTIR to get to the floor with Weber, Voracek; refusing to retain on Chychrun and probably costing themselves a valuable add in that trade; ruining revenue sharing for the league, thus damaging the salary cap; generally just being <a href="https://theathletic.com/3187030/2022/03/16/every-other-team-in-the-league-will-be-laughing-imagining-the-coyotes-future-in-arizona/?source=user_shared_article" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">an embarrassment.</a>

If they win the lottery, gonna love all the awkward photos of Bedard being like “yeah…can’t wait to be a coyote. Gonna be making hot plays with Buzz Flibbeck and that guy who was a fourth liner in the AHL.”</div></div>

You ain’t wrong either.

Definitely biased myself, but best to avoid that awkwardness and have CBJ win the lottery. The alternative of Chicago winning and getting Bedard just as Kane steps out the door doesn’t seem like justice. But somehow I feel the Ewing-to-the-Knicks scenario will magically play out.

(If not, watch a long-established franchise with a history of stars and high picks [PHI, MTL, DET] leap to the top of the board.)
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsMar. 2, 2023 at 4:00 p.m.
Thread: Columbus gets another little johnny pal
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Snowhawk18</b></div><div>That’s great that his brother is on the team but the Robinson in the Hawks organization isn’t an NHL calibre player, he won’t become one just because the Hawks trade him to Columbus and his brother plays there. Wait to the off-season and they could probably sign him as a free agent.</div></div>

The acquisition wasn’t my idea. There are a pair of Sherwood brothers from central Ohio quite similar to the Robinson, perhaps a little worse. One is a fringe NHL fourth liner; the other is an AHL talent who can make NHL cameos as an an emergency loan for last-minute injuries. CBJ had one, and rather than trying to pair them, they just let him go.


(Glad “delete” is able to entertain himself. He seems to be the only person that finds his comments interesting.)
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 2, 2023 at 3:52 p.m.
Thread: (ARI/CBJ) - Gillies for Voracek
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hugeballer</b></div><div>Make LTIR players unmovable or at least require the team to retain 50% of the salary , teams shouldn't be able to dump off their trash for a 6th round pick</div></div>

No need for a rule change. The only way teams can do this is because there’s a market for this. ARZ is in a unique, transitory phase, being hit with the real world economic double whammy of (unnecessarily) restrictive COVID restrictions leading to losses and a stadium situation in flux. But striking gold on both ends with players like Ghost Bear makes the Yotes willing to take these chances. Also, remember, it was not long ago that they traded for Taylor Hall in a playoff push.

Nobody chastised Detroit or Chicago when they made desperate, very-short sighted moves to extend their windows in the first half of the last decade. Those bills have come due. Come to think of it, move that window back a few years and you have the LA Kings, leading directly to the hyperbolic Quick fiasco. Wouldn’t be surprised to see other teams likewise suffering long droughts after skipping interest payments, looking to only today and not tomorrow. (TBL is an easy target here, but it would be irresponsible to not include Diamond Sports Group aka Bally Sports as well.)

Arizona is not in an ideal situation, and will not be putting forth an ideal squad next season. That cuts against the spirit of the game. But I do give them credit for recognizing—and admitting—their situation, and taking immediate steps toward correction. It might—it will—get worse before it gets better, but they appear committed to improving the best way they know how.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 2, 2023 at 3:30 p.m.
Thread: (ARI/CBJ) - Gillies for Voracek
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Skyraider112</b></div><div>I thought Arizona didn't want to take back any money in a Chychrun trade, yet the next day they go out and acquire an 8+ mil player? Regardless, big Arizona dub. If Voracek plays next season and plays decently, they can retain 50% and get a mid-round pick. Arizona is stockpiling picks, not sure it will work in their favour but I applaud the effort</div></div>

That’s the gamble. All signs are that Voracek’s career is over. Not like you can rehab a concussion. Can’t even monitor it with blood work, vitals, or an EPT kit from Walmart. Plus, given the sports landscape in 2023, I sure wouldn’t want to be the team even nudging a player w/ concussion concerns to resume his career. Ever.

Perhaps at some point, Jake and Jake alone will come to the decision that he misses hockey, needs hockey, and wants to return to play in the NHL. But he has two young sons (born ‘16 and ‘19) for whom he wants to be present, literally and figuratively, which he will undoubtedly consider in any decision. One would think exile to Arizona decreases the likelihood of his return, but it actually gives him the best scenario personally. He no longer is tethered to the emotional obligations tied to the team that drafted him AND traded a very popular player to reacquire him. (Despite appearances, Cam Atkinson and Voracek are only months apart in age.)

Now, if he wants to return, he can actually go anywhere: Arizona would much rather trade him than play him. That puts him in a location of his choosing, presumptively with a contender. If and only if he wants. In the meantime, he can live and recover in Czechia.

My best bet—most assuredly NOT going out on a limb here—Voracek looks back on his 1000+ NHL games with pride and calls it a career in North America. He’ll probably test the frozen waters back home at some point down the road, with assurances from Jagr that anyone taking a shot at Jake will disappear deep into the Vltava. In that scenario, ARZ does not “win the lottery” and flip him for far more value than they paid. (They have made SOME savvy moves. See: 👻 🐻) But the Yotes real goal is to just kill time while they’re stuck in a peewee rink, hover barely above the cap floor while paying less in real world dollars, and field as bad of a team as possible to maximize the value of their own picks. Jake’s real money variance is nowhere near as great as Weber’s, but it does help the other agendas.

Really overlooked CBJ in this, because the analysis is mostly the obvious combined with the aforementioned. They moved a $8.25M cap hit off the books for next year, a player they were NOT going to push to play. And yes, the dirty, unspoken secret that manifests too apparently to be a true secret: CBJ’s ownership group tends to idolize Scrooge McDuck, particularly since the founder/patriarch passed. So while other teams would have just utilized Voracek on LTIR, that was an undesirable path for this team. Werenski’s LTIR went entirely unused this season (maybe will be a bit now with the Gus and Quick retentions). In fact, had they desired, the Jackets could have dipped well beyond $20M into LTIR with their injuries, but it was never a consideration. How many 3rd, 4th, 5th round picks did they miss out on by avoiding brokering deals? And I never fully believe a story sourced out of Boston, but if they indeed refused to take on Craig Smith (or Jesse Puljujärvi), look at the capital it cost them.

Finally, as for Gilles the goalie, I hope/presume he’s just a space filler in the AHL while CBJ rotate Tarasov, Greaves, and Lalonde through the main roster down the stretch, just to get a sense how unprepared each are to back up the already inept Elvis next season. 🥅
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 1, 2023 at 8:59 p.m.
Thread: (LAK/CBJ) - 1st, Quick for Gavrikov, Korpisalo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mondo</b></div><div>I mean, I don't really care about Quick or him getting traded, but this is one of the reasons why players will forego money in exchange for a NMC/NTC. If they want to stay somewhere or have a say in where they might end up down the line, the clauses give them that ability. Maybe if the Kings were garbage this season he would've been able to play out there - but the best case scenario for him is he gets dealt again to a playoff team.

Also, contracts aren't 100% guaranteed because they can be bought out which entitles the player to either 1/3rd or 2/3rds of the remaining value on it. Signing bonuses are guaranteed which is why a lot of top players are taking most of their deals in that instead of just salary.</div></div>

Good points. Few are affected by the 1/3 but Alex Wennberg is a recent example (still has worked out well for him). And while 2/3 is better than nothing, it is significant enough. The bonuses are not only insulated but jumble the buyout math for teams. Still, I like the system on the whole compared to other leagues.

Also, you put it well, contemplating players foregoing some money in exchange for a NTC/NMC. Give something to get something. I just dislike the blanket notion of players expecting a clause after negotiating for max salary and term.