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Forum: Armchair-GM7 hours ago
Thread: What if we kept the core for some reason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafboy101</b></div><div>Well said. My ideology with Adin Hill trade is if u look at the cap situation in Vegas it’s very very tight given all the extension money handed out, Hill is going into final year and $4.9 off the books could surely help them shore up the D core and add depth forwards. JT seems like he wants to be here, and only here, kinda like the Stamkos situation in Tampa. That’s his team now for rest of career. So keeping him on at a $5-$6 million cap hit I wouldn’t hate, cap will be roughly $92-$96 million in 2025-26 if it keeps going up the way it is, so having him as a 2 or 3 centre wouldn’t be horrible. With Matt Roy I may very well be off and I can agree to that, I was just thinking he can be a giveaway machine sometimes, has had 2 healthy years now but before that was a bit injury prone, but RHD are a premium and they tend to get more than we all think. I personally would resign Domi also, the issue, u need to prioritize the D-Core then depth scoring before he comes into play, our D over achieved in the playoffs and just struggling moving the puck and we also just couldn’t score so gotta fill the team before giving out $4M+ to domi, I rather 2 $2M guys who put up 30-40 points each over 1 Domi who’s gonna put up 30-40 points.</div></div>

I think Vegas would just stick with Hill and Thompson and see who they will commit to, maybe they ditch both and go for Saros or Ullmark in the following off-season. Right now they are paying under 6M for their goaltending duo which isn't usually possible for quality goaltending. I think they already got Stephenson/Marchessault's replacement in Hertl, so they are likely to be gone, unless they opt to move Karlsson to save the older Marchessault. They also added Hanifin, which might mean they try to move Pietrangelo or Theodore unless they want to be paying 3 guys on the backend 7.3M+.

If he's still an effective C, then keeping him would make sense. I do think though there is merit in passing on the torch to the younger guys in terms of leadership, and I'm not sure that they would strip him of the captaincy and keep him around. Who knows though, it's happened to Patrick Marleau and he stayed around for a while in SJ.

Definitely do need to prioritize defense, but will likely be a process. If Roy continues to be a giveaway machine, he will have to prepare himself to receive the whipping boy torch from Klingberg as he did from Holl, funny that they are all #3. Speaking of Klingberg, I think Treliving recognizes that this team needs a different PP QB one with a shot, not sure if Montour fills the bill but would be nice to see the Leafs have an effective PP in the post-season for once.
Leafs PP % Regular Season vs Post-Season:

2023-24: 24.0 ----- 4.8
2022-23: 26.0 ----- 25.0 (RD 1: 28.6 RD 2: 18.1)
2021-22: 27.3 ----- 14.3
2020-21: 20.0 ----- 13.0
2019-20: 23.1 ----- 15.4

If Domi wants more than 4M need to let him walk and if he wants 4M, they should only sign him for 3-years max. If he would do 3-3.25Mx7 or 3.5Mx4/5, I'm sure that will end up undesirable but wouldn't be opposed to it.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 hours ago
Thread: What if we kept the core for some reason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafboy101</b></div><div>Maybe, maybe not. It’s hard to say. Matt Roy tends to hit and is a solid puck mover. He’s a good 2nd pair option from the right side. His issues are he tends to give the puck away quite a bit and miss reads forwards attacking the net hard and he can get beat as he’s not a very fast skater and he’s average going backwards. He’s also 29 which I know isn’t old by hockey standards but aside from his last 2 years he’s been injury prone quite a bit. So to me u could very much be right and I’d be interested to see what he gets and how much a team values him. RHD are a premium after all and<strong> I wouldn’t be surprised to see guys get way more than we all think.</strong></div></div>

I know both Orlov and Gavrikov signed short deal terms but I think those deals are a sign that price of UFA defenders is going to go up drastically. Although, even if it doesn't for everyone any top 4 D should be getting above 5M considering the cap is going up and that's what they were already getting. It's been 4 years since Brodie got 5Mx4.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 hours ago
Thread: no cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mortarhead</b></div><div>and ...why not?</div></div>

Because it doesn't make them Cup favorites but more importantly, it leads to a short window to compete. Sooner rather than later, they will need a 2C and secondary scoring will likely be an issue, soon enough Pietrangelo's contract is up/he's not as effective anymore and they would also need a 1RD. Their prospect pool isn't deep enough for them to hope to have potential solutions. At that point, Matthews is 1-year away from FA, and is probably sold as a rental for pennies on the dollar, might as well deal him now for a king's ransom.

If you're trading Marner for older defensive help, better be getting a top 6 F as well, preferably a C. If they could, the Leafs would be better off trading Marner for Theodore + Karlsson or Buchnevich + Faulk than trading him for Pietrangelo.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 8:10 a.m.
Thread: The End of the core 4
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NJTM</b></div><div>Before we get emotional, let’s review what Mitch Marner is.
1. He is a selke trophy capable winger that’s probably making about $3.5M more than he should. That’s not to say he’s a bad player, he just has an inflated salary.
2. He has a no move clause and is a pending unrestricted free agent. Any trade for Mitch Marner has to be compelling enough for any team to overlook the fact that they can just offer him a contract in one year.
3. His history of being difficult in contract negotiations makes it extremely complicated to negotiate in advance of a trade.

Given all of these facts, New Jersey can at best offer a package including a cap dump, B tier prospect(s) and 2nd day draft picks. If Toronto wishes to retain on his salary, the package can be slightly improved. I’m not gonna say Mitch Marner is a bad player, but the devils should only take him on on their terms if they want the player.</div></div>

I agree with a lot of what you said, except Fitzgerald is not going to bother to lowball, he just won't make the offer. The only type of GM that is going to trade for Marner is one that is either open to taking risk or desperate since Treliving won't just give him away. I don't think Fitzgerald is either. I think CAR, FLR, BUF, NYI and VGK could fit the bill in terms of having GMs willing to risk or desperate enough to explore a Marner trade. Maybe STL, PIT, and WSH as well and possibly UTAH and SEA.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 7:55 a.m.
Thread: Nylander Goes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingSalming21</b></div><div>Interesting. The most common theory about the Leafs getting better is that the core must be broken up so a handful of players aren't eating all the cap. I admit I don't have a great deal of knowledge about the Sabres prospects. If they are stacked, you're probably right, this wouldn't make a lot of sense.</div></div>

I think the Core 4 narrative was long over-used and blown out of proportion. If we are being honest, they have been together for 6 years and in those 6 years they had at least 3 or 4 distinct variations of the team, and people have been calling for them to be broken up for at least 4 of those 6 years. The expectation that they had was like they were a core that has one once but can't seem to stay competitive anymore. I do think it's fair to criticize them now and want to see change. That being said just because there's change doesn't mean the results are going to change instantly.

At this point might as well not consider Tavares a core player. Unfortunately, you probably need to wait for his contract to expire though which leaves Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Rielly. If they do shake up the core and end up getting a player like Power out of it (wishful), I don't hate it but I don't see why you would trade Rielly. The Leafs need to add to their defense another big-minute defender, and you did so with Larsson and Skjei, but you also transferred a whole lot of pressure on Power right away.

As far as ACGMs go, I think you did a bit too much with especially with essentially swapping Rielly for Skjei. Probably sign a RHD on a 1-year deal instead of Skjei or could go with someone like Matt Roy at 5.5-6M. Then instead of Brown, use the 4-4.75M left to try getting a temporary top-6 option. Cowan if he makes the team probably doesn't play higher than 3rd line. Maybe they could find enough money to keep Bertuzzi, if you play Tavares at C instead.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 6:48 a.m.
Thread: Nylander Goes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingSalming21</b></div><div>Someone has to go ...</div></div>

Not really. The Leafs need to get better but it's not just going to happen by breaking up the core. Getting Power would help that but might not mean much if they are losing their most consistent playoff performer, and will more than likely become a one-line team in the near future.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingSalming21</b></div><div>I know it was a down year for most of the forwards, but they didn't have a player with 60 points last season. I was wondering if maybe the Sabres might soon feel a cap crunch like Toronto's, only on the blueline. It's hard to fit three legit #1 D-man in the cap. Forgetting all that, do you think it would be a fair trade if it fit both club's needs?</div></div>

Byram has injury issues, so he may never live up to his full-potential, and bringing in a more expensive player in Nylander over Power wouldn't help them cap-wise. Also, worth noting that BUF does have a whole lot of top forward prospects still in their system, much easier for them to end up with a player like Nylander than another player like Power.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 6:27 a.m.
Thread: no cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>He did say that but that never happens. Marner signing an extension post trade holds not merit on a trade itself. Marner is by all definition a full season rental if he were to be moved this offseason.</div></div>

Yeah, I don't disagree that it's not realistic but even then I still think the Leafs would have the option to keep him around.

If Marner did want out and this is was the best or only offer available, I'm not convinced that they would be better off with Pietrangelo. They might drastically solidify their D-core for a run or two or three, but I'm sure scoring will still be an issue. Even if it does work out and they end up winning a Cup, it would likely be a one-and-done. Worth noting that Matthews will be a year away from FA when Alex's contract is up, and they will likely not have much of a future on the back end. Alternatively, they could just rent Marner and sign a UFA defender to try achieve the same outcome.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 5:49 a.m.
Thread: JT and Marner gone
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FoxYou727</b></div><div>

Unless he captains the leafs to a cup he is arguably one of the if not the most overrated player in NHL
history

His uncle on the other hand greatest lacrosse player ever for the Buffalo Bandits</div></div>

Lol, not really fair. You want him to do something no one has done in 58 years to be rated as a player. Don't think it's reasonable to expect him to be like his uncle, when his uncle is the Gretzky of Lacrosse. Makes me wonder if Gretzky could have won a Cup in Toronto

Tavares will go down as one of the elite players of the NHL, but there are plenty of players ahead of him and a whole lot will pass him. It didn't really help him that he lost his legs pretty fast like Ovechkin, but he was never as good as Ovechkin and hasn't really changed anything in his game like Stamkos did when needed in terms of moving to the wing or becoming more of a playmaker. Unfortunately, for him in hindsight it seems like it would be been better for him to stay an Islander over a Leaf, just in terms of the pace the Islanders play at and his role as a leader in the room. If feel like the Toronto locker room was not, nor will it ever be fully his and that he's more like an alternate captain than the Captain. I don't think the Leafs should necessarily abandon him beyond next year, but if they bring him back (if he's good enough), they should strip him of the captaincy and make him and alternate. Don't get me wrong though, I'm not blaming him as a leader but just an observation, considering the amount of ex-captains and veterans the Leafs brought in, and who Matthews and Marner were looking up to when they were young. I also do wonder if Morgan Rielly feels like he got snubbed.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 12:33 a.m.
Thread: Shake up
Karlsson is making almost double what Roy is, if they can afford a 5.9M 3C, they can afford a 3M one. The odd one out would be Karlsson but they can keep both. It just means they lose Stephenson and Marchasseult, but getting rid of Roy alone isn't going to help them retain either guy.

Doing way too much here anyways. Top priority for Treliving shouldn't be trying to disrupt the core, it's building the DCORE. You don't trade a player of Marner's calibre for cap either, assuming he even allows himself to be traded. There likely isn't going to be a trade for Marner that makes sense but who knows we'll have to see. Tavares is more than likely immovable, but he's in his final year anyways, and then his cap could be used towards either further improving the Dcore or getting a replacement 2C if Domi doesn't stick + extensions for the likes of Marner, McCabe, Knies and Woll.