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tweaky

Tweaky
Member Since
Mar. 18, 2016
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Colorado Avalanche
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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 30, 2018 at 2:30 a.m.
Thread: Looking forward to next year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TJTwolf</b></div><div>Look at the cap space: $4.4 mil, even allowing for a rise of 5 for the fact it's done on this year's figures. That makes $9.5 if we're being generous. Plus Compher &amp; Kerfoot will likely be getting more than 1.5.</div></div>

You seem to be figuring the 2019-20 cap space based on the 2018-19 figure($4.4M), and adding $5M for inflation, correct? But then you are stating that all these players will needed re-signing in that amount of cap space. But seemingly, you are not accounting for the fact that the $4.4M figure includes all those players' current salaries, which will not exist by then. The $24M figure I stated reflects that.

The $1.5M for Kerfoot and Compher were averages, with Kamenev and Sven. Not sure JTC gets more than that...his comparable is Sven, who last summer got $1.4M after a 24pt/46gm season....JTC just had 23pts in 69 games...a year of development likely brings him in line with what Andrghetto did prior to his contract. Sven himself is getting a slight raise as he stayed consistent, with 22pts in 50 games. Kerfoot might deserve more depending on how he does next year, but looking doubtful that Kamenev will cost even $1M unless he can stick and produce at least at that level next year. Even so, call it $7M for all 4 players. Still makes it a total of $24M for the 7 re-signed players. Add one ELC to bring it to $25M, added to the $55.8M carried over for a total cap hit of $80.8M.

You may not know about it, but if you look just above the row where it lists Player, Salary, etc. (where I am guessing you got the $4.4M figure), you will see a tab layout, one of which says "Long Term Outlook." If you click that, it shows who all is signed for the next several seasons, the totals and Free Agent types. That says that this roster has 15 players signed for the 2019-20 season, for a total of $55.8M. (And sorry if this comes across as condescending, it is not meant to...I am just trying to explain it in one post rather than go at it more tactfully and possibly take many due to my inability to be clear about it.) That $55.8M figure means there is at least $19.2M in cap space, plus the inflation this summer (assumed to be $5M based on reports from the league), and the following summer (being conservative, say $1M to bring the two year average in line with the historical average of $3M/year...though if we go by average growth by %, it is around 6%, so another $5M figure would be closer). Based on that $81M cap for 2019-20, they would have $25.2M to spend on those 7 players and a new ELC. Or even more if the cap goes up by the average % instead ($29.2M). Fits right in with the previous paragraph.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 23, 2018 at 4:25 a.m.
Thread: Looking forward to next year
My own comments first. Not bad, though I think that is a massive overpayment for Perron, who will not duplicate his career year he is having with VGK. He will revert back to the 45-50 point forward that he is, and $6.5M is too much to pay for that. JVR, on the other hand, will continue to be the 55-60 pint power forward that he is, and will command closer to $7M. I think I would rather pass on Perron, pay JVR, and keep Wilson so the following year, his contract is done and all that money is available for the glut of RFAs the Avs will have.

Speaking of.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TJTwolf</b></div><div>Rantanen, Zadorov, Compher, Kerfoot, Kamenev, Andrighetto &amp; Varlamov all to sign the year after with approx. $9.5 mil space plus whatever the cap goes up by (if it continues to rise) if you planned to sign all of them. The Avs may have cap space at the moment but you just blew most of it on JVR &amp; Perron. Rantanen is going to be at the very least $5mil per year and Zadorov at least $4mil per year if he continues as is, so you're trading Barrie and/or Varly or not re-signing Varly and some of the others the next year? Even if you don't re-sign Alt &amp; Barberio that would still only add another $1.8 mil and you still have to fill their roles.

So as for 'The terms on JVR and Perron might be a little low, but the Avs have the cap space so it wouldn't matter anyway.' Think again!</div></div>

Not sure where you are getting the $9.5M figure, as the Long Term Outlook shows a cap hit of $55.8M for 2019-20. The cap will be at least $80M by then, so that gives them $24M to sign Varly ($5M), Rants ($7M long term), Zads ($5M long term), Compher, Kerfoot, Kamenev and Ghetto ($1.5M each average). Alt and Barbs roles are filled by Meloche and Makar (though that does make for too many RHD) on ELCs ($1M to make it easy). And that is for a roster of 24 players, one over max...bring it down to 23 and they sit right at that theoretical cap.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 18, 2018 at 10:31 a.m.
Thread: Trades with NSH, TB, LA, COL (maybe TOR)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JSG</b></div><div>Yeah not very familiar with COL's defensemen situation but idea still stands. Hopefully a 2nd, but more likely a 3rd.</div></div>

Late getting back on this, but here goes. On the right side, the Avs have Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie, and insert #6D of the day. Gudas could very well fit in the #6D slot....but they are not going to give up a early round pick to fill it. Maybe a 4th or 5th. And moving forward, they have Cale Makar, Conor Timmins (you may have heard of them, the two best D on the recent WJC champs), and Nic Meloche (another young kid that plays a very similar style to Gudas, but is much cheaper and less suspension prone).

They could use a bit of help on the left side though. Say those two picks for Sanheim?
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 18, 2018 at 10:22 a.m.
Thread: Trading some players
As an Avs fan, I would be all for these. But they are not realistic.

Barrie straight up for Miro, maybe but doubtful Dallas would go for even that.

Varly for just the first...maybe. But again doubtful until he proves he can stay healthy and on form.

The Danault trade is close, but a 2nd is too much to add. So far this season, Soda has more points (due to more games...but games you miss still count in the standings) and plays a ton of defensive minutes...losing that would hurt, so I doubt they add much of anything just to get younger at 3C. Soda centers the shutdown line (with Blake Comeau and Matt "waiver pickup" Neito). Danault is younger, possibly more offensively skilled, and cheaper. Soda is more proven, better defensively, and fits on the Avs roster. Not sure Danault would given Jost, Compher, Kerfoot right now, and Kamenev, Bowers, and maybe even Shvyryov in the pipeline.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 29, 2018 at 10:15 a.m.
Thread: this year-TOR/PIT/CBJ/CAR/ARI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HoffmanisKing</b></div><div>No way Arizona gives up DAHLIN for one first round pick (the other one Ottawa is gonna take back cuz Top 10) , and 2 prospects. DAHLIN is tooo good.</div></div>

If OTT gets the 2018 pick back, then they give up their 2019 first. Which in this scenario, would go to ARI. Two firsts, Jost and Timmins is easily worth 1OA, even with Dahlin sitting there. Might even be more than I would be willing to pay. Plus one of those prospects is currently doing fairly well in the NHL this year. The other was the WJC Gold winning Team Canada's best defenseman, and currently the best D in the OHL.

I still maintain that if a pick is involved in a Marner-Barrie swap, it is head TO Colorado. A 60pt D is worth more than a 55pt F. Then add the cap dump Fehr...COL gets the pick. I like Marner, so I might do 1for1, but I doubt GMSJS.

Not really understanding the lover for Lindholm....but this one is predicated on gettign Korpisalo....no way the Avs run with Hamburgler as long term backup.

So it ends up being [Bernier, Wilson, Soda and a 2nd] for [Korpisalo, Lindholm, and JJ] with $1mil retention taking up space. I think CBus wants 50% retention on Soda to give up Korpisalo, and I dont think you have to retain on Wilson....they want rid of Cole and will pay the 4th gladly.

I get what you are trying to work here, and it is a valiant effort. But the damage to the locker room by giving up 4 guys would be huge. Especially Barrie (MacK's bestie and loved by all the guys). Maybe some of it would be better as draft floor trades (the ARI trade would have to be). Overall values do not seem too far out of whack, aside from the cost for Marner.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 29, 2018 at 4:24 a.m.
Thread: nxtyear- a few signings
Dahlen for Jost, Timmins, McIssac* and Hughes**? No. Dahlen is likely to be great, but unless that trade is done after the lottery, it is not guaranteed to be 1OA. And there is also no guarantee Dahlen pans out...should but nothing is ever 100%. Is just too much to give up IMO. Though probably not far off on what it would take for ARI (really, we know it will be OTT to EDM) to give him up.

Marner costs Barrie AND a 1st? No. Rather have Nylander anyhow, and that might cost Barrie and 2nd.

Carolina matches that offer sheet for Lindholm...easily. To make it high enough that they would not, it would cost a 1st and 3rd at the least. Even as it stands, it would cost the Avs a 2nd. All 2019.

Bailey likely will cost more than he is worth unless you play him alongside a Tavares level playmaker, which Kerfoot is not, as much as I love him .

Just as soon keep Wilson. A 4th is a crap shoot for even drafting a Wilson level player.

You have Comeau getting over paid. Maroon too given that he is riding McJesus.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 17, 2018 at 12:29 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 24, 2017 at 8:29 p.m.