Working hypothesis: Dubas acquired a first because he is negotiating for a high-end RHD and potential trading partner has said that a first would be needed.
Considering that (according to Lebrun in the Athletic) Dubas shopped Kapanen to Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Nashville, Anaheim, Minnesota, Chicago and Carolina looking for a #1 pick and that the #1 seemed necessary for any deal to be made, I think that it likely that Dubas is working on a deal for a high-end RHD and requires a 1st for those talks to progress.
As Dubas can't take on much cap in a trade for a high-end D there would obviously need to be players going the other way to almost balance the cap. Because of the front-loaded and signing bonus heavy contracts, many Toronto forwards are owed less cash than their cap hit which would be appealing to many teams.
I would assume that the teams listed above make no sense for being the target of the D as trying to negotiate Kapanen for a first would then mean trading them back their own first - so that removes teams like Nashville, Anaheim, Carolina, Minnesota etc in my opinion.
Obviously there could be many other Ds that Dubas is targeting, and many of those D's would not require Nylander. However, due to cap considerations, they would require something along the lines of Johnsson and/or Kerfoot. Mirtle indicated that Andersen, Kerfoot, Johnsson and Engvall are being shopped for small returns/cap relief. That leads me to think (hope) that Nylander is being traded for a high-end D.
As I said, there are plenty of other candidates, but Ekblad remains very high on my list. Big, physical 24-year-old all-around RHD with 5-years left on his contract. Ekblad is owed 31M in cash over the remaining 5 years of his contract. Nylander is owed 20.5M over the remaining 4 years of his contract. Does, Florida have any reason to want Nylander? No idea. Many may feel that Nylander and a first is too much for Ekblad. I have a tendency to agree. Something would be added on from Florida.
Dermott is traded somewhere in my scenario, as I think he needs to go to a team where he can challenge for a top-4 spot. I think that it is likely that some combination of Andersen, Kerfoot, Johnsson and Engvall are also traded. Gudas is signed because of rumours and Sandin needs that kind of partner. Lehtonen is still an unknown commodity, but could obviously win a spot.
maybe but Dubas said he wanted to give the core 4 1 more year
What else would he say in public forum? Never believe what a player, coach or executive says in public. They have an agenda and telling the truth to the masses isn't it.