Blackhawks Prospect and Youth Pyramid

Dach is the definition of a tier 1 prospect...

I love Kirby, but I really don’t see him on that level. He did make the NHL right away, but he was seen as a reach in his draft class. Tier 1 to me is guys with franchise changing potential, but at no point yet has he been a star level player. I recognize he’s had injuries, but he’s also gotten hurt 3 separate times in 2 seasons in the NHL, so that hurts his pedigree too in my eyes. I’m usually really strict on why qualifies as a tier 1 prospect but if he truly takes the next step and goes from a guy with top 6 potential to solidified top 6 production at only 20-21 years old, he’s absolutely moving up to tier 1.

He's also 20 years old. Dach is all day a franchise talent. The question is, after being rushed last season and injuries this year, when will he put it together.

Mitchell should be up a tier. For one, he had more pedigree then Wyatt Kaiser in the NCAA. Two, keep in mind he's in his first pro season (abbreviated season). Let's see the kid play a full season first.

It seems with your rankings that you are mixing up what a kid shows in the juniors or college versus being rushed into action in the NHL and not being an immediate impact player and shoe-in. Dach as example. For all intents and purposes, Dach is the definition of a franchise player. Mitchell being rated lower then Kaiser is another good example. Mitchell was more recognized in the NCAA as a top defender then Kaiser currently is, so because he was rushed into action and you didn't think he was a stud out of the gate you're saying Kaiser is now higher? Don't you think if Kaiser played this season in the NHL he'd look worse then Mitchell? I think you are missing the entire development piece of a player transitioning to the NHL. Boqvist, a prime example of what happens when a player is rushed...he looked bad last year, had a lot of bad moments this year but some good ones, next season should improve again. Dach and Mitchell should be the same and Kaiser will look out of place when he (if he) transitions to the NHL. Very very few players jump right in and look fantastic, those are the elite ones like Cat, Kane, McDavid, Matthews, etc. but the vast majority take a long time like Keith who didn't look very good his first season or two yet is a HOF elite player.

I’m really not sold on Ian Mitchell, I’ve been watching him for years and the upside really is not there. I don’t see him ever becoming much more than a 3rd pairing guy, but he could play in the NHL for a while in that role. He has very little polish to his game in either the offensive or defensive zone. His only high quality trait right now is his puck moving. It also doesn’t help that when Kalynuk and Beaudin played in the AHL, they absolutely destroyed the league. Meanwhile, Mitchell was far worse in his time down in the minors.
Kaiser has far more potential than Mitchell, he was a major boom/bust prospect coming out of the draft. Truly an elite skater with some of the best endurance in a college hockey player. I’d even say that outside of Boqvist, he has the highest upside of any defenseman in our organization, the likelihood of hitting that ceiling is low which is what caused him to go lower in his draft class and why he’s only a tier 3, but given how great he was in his first college season, I’m expecting a lot.
Also worth mentioning that Mitchell essentially flatlined in his development across his three seasons at Denver, Kaiser still hasn’t scratched the surface of what he’s truly capable of.

As for the Kirby stuff, is he really ever gonna be better than peak Nuge, Duchene, or Johansen? They were 60-70 point players at their best and that’s what I see as the ceiling for Kirby. That’s not a tier 1 player in my eyes if that’s the best you can be. Fringe 1Cs who were really good 2Cs. I don’t see Dach on the level of Matthews and McDavid or even prime Stamkos or Tavares. He’s not that, he’s closer to the Duchene level.


(Btw: The tiers are based on a combo of potential and likelihood to hit said potential. If I was basing it off current quality, the top of the pyramid would be exclusively current NHL players and that’s not fun when projecting the future. I did have Mitchell in tier 3 last year, but after watching him a full season in the NHL, there’s just a lack of Top 4 defenseman skills)