Here's my take. Trying to be realistic. I tried to include the fakt that you usually have to overpay (top) FA on the free market (see explanation below).
UFA: I don't think Holland wants to spend crazy money (since he will have to sign JP and others soon) plus the Oilers won't get all the players they're potentially in on (like for example guy like Coleman, Hoffmann, Armia and other top or middle 6 wingers). I think its an overpayment of Saad (term and money) but thats what you have to do on the FA market. Then again, I think Saad is a more complete player than for example Hoffmann and he has more upside than for example Coleman. Tatar would be another option instead of Saad (and probably a bit cheaper). Same goes for Martinez, slight overpay (considering the flat cap) and ideally you'd want him for not more than two years. Another option I'd prefer over Martinez woudl be Oleksiak but I don't think the Oilers will get him at a better price (since everybody in the NHL loves big guys and thus overpays them like crazy [looking at you Tyler Myers]). Larsson is almost fine I guess, but in order to keep him for sure you have to give him what he wants (term and money). Plus there is no better option in FA of which you can be 100% sure to sign. Koekoek ist useful and cheap. Plus you need someone to fill in for Jones (Seattle) and injurys. Maybe Holland wants to sign a goaltender (Mrazek for example). Ideally they find a middle 6 forward (that is not too hyped like Coleman. For example Janmark, Haula, Armia, Marinook, Bjugstad). I picked Haula because I think he'd have the most upside. Then again, I think you have to slightly overpay in terms of money and term (2x2-2.5 would be better).
RFA: I left out signings of potential AHL/fringe players (Marody, Benson, etc.) because I don't think they'll really make an impact and crack the lineup. Yamamoto gets a short bridge deal. I'm not sure about the numbers (could be higher) but he didn't perform as good as expected last season, so I made it on the lower end. You keep Khaira, he's useful and you give Turris another shot. If he fails, you try Holloway or another AHL guy and see if something sticks.
Trades/other changes: I don't think the Oilers will buy out Koskinen or Neal because it's just not worth it, especially with Koskinen. Yes, he wan't exactly good but he's still useful as 1A/B with Smith and his contract is up after next season. Only if they sign a FA goaltender they probably think about buying out Koskinen. You could buy out Neal but I think you could still use him as a bottom 6 guy and on the PP like Chiasson. Which will be more economic long term than buying him out. In general I'm almost sure the Oilers won't pay assets to get rid of these guys. I could see a "bad contract for a bad contract" kind of deal (but with whom? Maybe Chicago and Keith, but the Hawks don't need more forewards and Keith's still the way better player).
I think the Oilers should stay away from guys like Barrie, Goodrow, Hamilton and Hall.
Yes, I know this team didn't get much better but you can't do it all in one off-season.
Like it or not this is probably what the off-season will look like although I do think Neal gets bought out. Martinez would need more money I think which you don’t wanna pay an aging dman yes he had good stats but often wasn’t playing against elite competition and plays on a strong team. I don’t doubt Duncan Keith would do well on the Oilers and I think Ken kicks the tires on him but I doubt they’re willing to give up a ton or at least they shouldn’t be
Like it or not this is probably what the off-season will look like although I do think Neal gets bought out. Martinez would need more money I think which you don’t wanna pay an aging dman yes he had good stats but often wasn’t playing against elite competition and plays on a strong team. I don’t doubt Duncan Keith would do well on the Oilers and I think Ken kicks the tires on him but I doubt they’re willing to give up a ton or at least they shouldn’t be
Like I said, I'd prefer a guy like Oleksiak (or similar fringe top 4 D) but they're all going to be even more expensive. On the other hand there is a definite need of another proven top 4 D. Don't know if Keith wouldn't fit. I could see him as a good 4/5 guy to mentor Bear/Jones/Bouchard, who all need more mentoring. And he's still capable of big(ger) minutes. But yes, it'd have to be a bad contract vs. bad contract.
Like I said, I'd prefer a guy like Oleksiak (or similar fringe top 4 D) but they're all going to be even more expensive. On the other hand there is a definite need of another proven top 4 D. Don't know if Keith wouldn't fit. I could see him as a good 4/5 guy to mentor Bear/Jones/Bouchard, who all need more mentoring. And he's still capable of big(ger) minutes. But yes, it'd have to be a bad contract vs. bad contract.
Yea that’s kind of how I see him too, I think the second pairing left side he still played over 23 minutes a game for Chicagoast year so a drop down to 20 or so might keep him fresher too. My only thing is what happens with Jones if we bring in someone for that left side, I see the lines something like this: nurse-bear, _____-bouchard, russel-Larson, and then laggesson and think koekook played well enough he deserves a 1 million one year deal.
McDavid, Connor
$250,000)
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