Atlantic: I think everyone in existence has predicted Toronto, Tampa, and Florida to be the Atlantic's three non-wildcard playoff teams this season, and for good reason. I think Tampa and Florida will be worse-off than Toronto, having lost much more substantial pieces (McDonagh and Palat/Weegar, Huberdeau, Marchment, and Florida's deadline acquisitions vs Mikheyev and Cambell), along with the fact that I don't think Murray/Samsonov will be as bad as people think, and the Leafs just finished 4th in the league with a sv% of 900 so I'm pretty sure they can win with poor goaltending.
For the wildcard, call me biased but I do think Ottawa has what it takes; almost all of their key players missed significant time last season, and they now have the depth to deal with injuries like those. Boston, on the other hand, will be missing McAvoy until at least December, and it remains to be seen if Marchand can still be an elite player coming off double hip surgery a quarter of the way through the season. No team is more poised to fall off than Boston,
Detroit and Buffalo, while better than they were last year, are still probably not that close to a playoff spot. I could easily see one or both of them passing Boston, especially if the Bruins decide their season is over and start selling. Montreal is Montreal.
Metro: The top three are easy to predict. Carolina finished third in the league, then upgraded DeAngelo to Burns and added Pacioretty for nothing. The Rangers will likely regress a little, if Shesterkin puts up Vezina numbers instead of Hart numbers, and the Penguins are nearing the end of their window but are still dangerous.
I really wasn't sure for the wildcard spot; it could end up being anyone but Philly, really. Washington is incredibly old, and in the same position as Boston where two key players (Backstrom and Wilson) will miss a good chunk of time to start the season, with Backstrom recuperating from hip surgery. Columbus could enter the playoffs if their kids play well and Gaudreau plays like he did last year. New Jersey might also make it, if their goaltending is sound and key players like Hughes and Hamilton don't miss significant time. In the end, I went with the Islanders. I'm not nearly as high on them as most seem to be (I think losing Barry Trotz hurts more than starting with a home arena helps them) but I think they're the most unpredictable of the Metro division. They might be great and prove themselves a serious cup contender, or they may crash and burn without Trotz and his system. At the end of the day, I think they have a better track record of success than NJ or Columbus, and are less susceptible to injury than Washington.
Pacific: The Oilers being strong and the Canucks improving are just about the only thing I'm sure of. The Flames will likely be good, but nowhere near their incredible (and miraculously injury-free) 2022 season, and I'm interested to see how Huberdeau will adapt to the Darryl Sutter system. The Canucks, on the other hand, are all but guaranteed to see an improvement from last year. They were easily a playoff team under Bruce Boudreau, but were held back by their terrible start to the season. Quite frankly, I'm surprised by how many people have them outside the playoff picture; it seems like people are looking at the standings, seeing their quiet offseason, and deciding they'll be the same without thinking all that hard about it.
I do think Vegas will make it in, if only because they can't possibly have worst luck than last year. Eichel will start the year healthy and with the team, and while I don't think they're a top contender with Pacioretty given the Fleury treatment and Lehner out for the year, I do still think they make it to the wildcard. Seattle, San Jose, and Anaheim are all pretty clearly out, though I wouldn't put it past Anaheim to be surprisingly competitive, but the real question is LA. Their younger players are gaining age and experience, but their old stars aren't getting younger. I'm really not sure if they make it in or not, and at the end of the day I think it's a tossup between them and Dallas.
Central: Something tells me Colorado might be good. Losing Kadri, Burakovsky, and Kuemper hurts, but their insane core remains intact. St. Louis and Minnesota will likely take steps back, both having lost a top 6 forward and backup goalie, but remain playoff locks. Chicago and ASU will be cursing the heavens if they make the playoffs, and Winnipeg acquired nothing but more locker room drama, but the real question lies with Dallas and Nashville. The Preds got better, but they just barely limped into the final wildcard spot thanks to career seasons from all their stars.
Likewise, the Stars should theoretically improve, but made the wildcard with a negative goal differential, suggesting some degree of luck to their season. With Robertson still unsigned and Seguin and Benn not getting any younger, they may very well miss the playoffs. That being said, I would not be at all surprised if they did make it; they certainly have the tools to be a good team, but I'm not sure they can put it all together.
At the end of the day, It's going to come down to which teams avoid injuries to key players. Vasilevsky getting hurt could very well push Tampa into the wildcard or beyond, Corsby or Ovechkin missing significant time may very well close the curtain on their dominance of the metro division, and Vegas is already missing their starting goaltender. Likewise, an otherwise mediocre team like New Jersey or Columbus might be able to squeeze out important wins if they're the only ones fully healthy.
This is why I always turn off injuries in franchise mode, goddamit.
The Bruins still have the pedigree, structure, experience, and depth to be a playoff team. This team the last few years has always been good even when they’re missing players. At this point, they have the best roster they’ve had in many years, though that could fall apart next year without Bergeron or Krejci. But for right now, it’s their last dance, and with the team they’ve built, along with their expectations, they’re not missing the playoffs. Besides the injuries and other teams behind them getting much better, there is no reason they shouldn’t easily make the playoffs. And I confidently say this because, with a healthy lineup, they have gotten better so why shouldn’t they still be a 100 point team. Of course anything can happen, but falling off doesn’t seem to be realistic with the roster they have built, at least for this year. I would think the Ottawa Senators finish the spot behind them, but I don’t think the 34 point gap between them gets closed in 1 year.
I like it. I too think there’s a decent chance 5 pacific teams make it. Who’s your president’s trophy pick? I’m going to go outside the box a bit and pick the Rangers.
McDavid, Connor
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