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Jul. 4, 2019
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum: Armchair-GM21 hours ago
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 7:30 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 2:50 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 1:30 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>The Blues constantly outperforming analytic projections (again, this is a SUBJECTIVE model) tells you what you need to know about the soundness and completeness of the projections. If I got something badly wrong so many times about the same teams (no, it's not just the Blues this happens with), I'd probably check my damn formula at some point.

As for the Blues scoring acumen, they shot high percentages because they play for high percentage shots by policy. There's a very good contextual reason for why they shoot a high percentage, and that's on top of the fact that they just have a lot of good shooters and several very clever passers. That isn't suddenly going to vanish. But we can always circle back next year after they shoot a high percentage and "outperform expectations" yet again. :tearsofjoy</div></div>

The blues do constantly outperform analytic projections but last year was even more than they normally do. Even if that shooting drops down to their normal results of 1-2% better than expected, thats a big drop in goals. That's also only at even strength. Somewhere around 75% of goals scored on the Blues PP went through Perron at some point, a full 20% more than the next highest player. Its a unit that ran through Perron and should be expected to decline as well without him.

The Blues do play for high percentage shots but they aren't the first team to do that and they won't be the last. None of those teams have sustained the kind of performance the Blues put on last season. Between that and the expected weakening of the PP without Perron, that's where the Blues are expected to lose a good amount of offense this season. Between that loss of offense and not having a Vezina candidate show up out of nowhere, this season could be night and day for the Blues.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 12:30 p.m.