Possible 1 year outlook

Doubt the Leafs target Provorov and they probably don't give up Knies for him either. That off-season they will be too busy trying to sign Matthews and Nylander to an extension, and resigning whoever they want from their pending ufas/rfas. Maybe you meant at the trade happens at the trade deadline this year and not before the 2023 draft, in that case it's possible if they think they need defense upgrade, I still don't think Knies would be on the table.

I also don't think Phi is going to retain 3m on him. Usually teams try moving players without retaining even if it's only two years, if they have to like ~1m. If he's good enough to land a top prospect+ a 1st, he should be worth at least 5m if not the full 6.75m. 2m at most if they want to compete with ARZ.

Get hayes out of here

There's a number of reasons I'm not totally convinced that's plausible right now.

1) With Couturier's injury, it's good to have a backup that can play top-9 C.

2) I don't think you'd get much for him without significant retention, and since you can only do that with 3 at a time I'd rather they use it on Provorov for a haul

3) With Gauthier being fairly new at C, I think having Hayes be able to take Faceoffs/help be a mentor on his line could be of value.

I would have to agree top prospect who's possibly another Matthews for a top 6 that like a 75pt player (I think)