Quoting: justaBoss
To be fair it's not like they've been in a hurry to do any sort of trade. I think they've just been waiting for the right offer, but it has yet to be manifested. No question Chychrun's injury-proniness is one of the reasons to that. That being said, the value here is fine for Chychrun in my opinion - just not with a retention.
This offer is similar to what the reported ask is for Chychrun - the ask that NOBODY is willing to pay. So in order to move him they either need to reduce the ask or somehow sweeten the pot to entice buyers to meet the ask. This trade explores the latter idea.
Quoting: justaBoss
Also almost two million dollars worth of retention has been worth around a 3rd or 4th round pick in the past. SJ got a fourth for retaining $1,375M of Foligno's salary, and a fifth for retaining $1,125M of Janmark's salary. Plus we've seen throughout the season that teams value the cap more than in the past - there is multiple trades to prove that point.
Expecting a retention of $1,875M being worth only a 7th is hella optimistic.
The cost to retain is based on actual dollars though, not cap hit. That's where you erred, you're calculating the wrong thing. O'Reilly's actual salary this year is $1M, so if you're asking someone to retain 25% of that for 25% of the season, that works out to just $62,500 in actual dollars, the compensation for which a 7th round pick is reasonable.
Let's look at your own examples:
- in 20-21 Janmark's salary was $2.25M. San Jose retained 25% for 25% of the season which cost them $140,625 in real dollars, and received a 5th round pick.
- Foligno was earning $5.5M that year. San Jose retained 25% for 25% of the season which cost them $343,750 in real dollars, in return for a 4th round pick.