10 Game Progress Report

Team: 2023-24 St. Louis Blues

Initial Creation Date: Oct. 27, 2023

Published: Nov. 6, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Recap:
Blues are 5-4-1
4th in the central
19th in the NHL

The Good:
The last 2 games. I waited for 10 games because I remember Ken Hitchcock preaching that it was the correct number to analyze. Luckily they played much better hockey in #9 and #10 because 1-8 were mostly depressing.

Binnington is seeing the puck very well. Depending on perspective, that can be good or bad. But overall, nice to see him going for a bounce back after his numbers have gotten worse each season before this. My favorite criticism of Binner is that he's a one-hit wonder, in a world of mostly zero-hit wonder goalies.

Blues are 7th best in GA/GP at 2.7. The advanced stats don't really support the narrative that the defense is very much improved. But Colton Parayko has bounced back in a massive way - the best d-man on the depth chart. He's still getting tough deployment but thanks to some changes to the system and added commitment to defending the slot, Parayko once again looks like a top pair shutdown guy.

The Bad:
While the system changes have reduced the scoring chances against, the offense has been pretty horrible as a result. Berube has doubled down on the "dumb it down" approach and it has made a lot of the games nearly unwatchable in my opinion. The Blues are one of the worst teams in the NHL in real possession, corsi, xG, eye test... however you want to slice it they cannot hang with good teams unless the goalie stands on his head.

I wish there was a narrative at the 10-game mark that Kyrou and Thomas have taken over ownership of this team, but we are still waiting. However, we may not have to wait much longer because Kyrou was dominant last game and Thomas looks like he's gaining some confidence.

The Ugly:
The powerplay going an abysmal 1 for 27. Just despicable. If you're going to try to play low-event, defensive hockey, you have to win the special teams battle. I think teams are more dangerous shorthanded than the Blues are on their PP.

25 GF in 10 GP is 4th worst in the NHL.

I didn't think getting Kevin Hayes at $3.5m for next to nothing could have been a bad thing. 10 games in it looks like a bad move. He's so slow and he doesn't play with any sort of urgency; he's not useful on either special teams package; and there are 2 more seasons after this one. I liked the other cheap, stopgap pick-ups (Vrana/Kapanen/Blais) because the term avoided commitment and they increased our overall team speed. This one is feels different; seems like Army found himself yet another immovable contract to add to his pile.

I hate to say it but Marco Scandella is no longer an NHL-caliber defensemen and with younger, more able players on the roster who need to prove their worth, it's time he takes a seat in the press box or finds some feel-good value in helping the guys in Springfield.

The Verdict:
I think this is potentially a bottom five team this year. They may "overperform" (hate that term) and get closer to a playoff spot, but I don't take them very seriously. Immediately following the 2019 cup this has been one of the most poorly run franchises in the league. Awful pro scouting has led to some boneheaded decisions with respect to personnel and contracts, and the amateur scouting / draft choices don’t seem like they’re going to bail them out, at least not soon enough. Time for a more committed rebuild in my opinion. Otherwise they run a risk of being middle of the pack for a long time.

Some deadline possibilities are shown here. Thanks for reading!

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