It seems Montreal may be looking to get another young top 6 forward this summer, same idea as Dach and Newhook the past 2 offseasons, and while there’s plenty of people who think guys like Necas, Zegras, Boldly, etc. would be available for a package of picks/prospects that could become something, I highly doubt that’s the case, but rather than giving up what could be a piece of our core going forwards for a different possible core guy, I’m taking the approach of targeting lower-value guys that may not have the same upside as the players mentioned above, but could be very good 2nd/3rd liners, and for a way lesser price.
I expect our top 6 to look something like this in a few years, so whoever we do acquire may not even be on the team, but also could be the missing piece in the top 6. (note: Dach may be 2C or 2RW, depending on who we draft and acquire).
To acquire Dach Montreal traded picks 13 and 66 in the 2022 draft, and traded Alexander Romanov and pick 98 to acquire pick 13, at the time of the trade Dach was about to be a RFA, having 65 points in 161 games (playoffs included), which is 0.40 points per game. Dach is a former 3rd overall pick too.
To acquire Newhook Montreal traded picks 31 and 37 along with Gianni Fairbrother, a defensive prospect who just missed an entire season due to injuries and has barely played since the trade for the former 16th overall pick that was a pending RFA, who had 73 points in 186 games, 0.39 points per game.
The Canadiens hold the Winnipeg Jets 1st round pick this season, which is currently 25th overall (per tankathon), and they have an abundance of later picks, prospects, and roster players who could all be moved to acquire a forward.
The vague criteria I’m looking for as a comparison to Newhook and Dach is a pending RFA with a career points per game around 0.4 who is a former 1st round pick, and is under the age of 23
The “bigger” names that meet the above criteria include:
- Anton Lundell, 0.495 points per game, 12th overall pick in 2020, 22 years old
- Dawson Mercer, 0.546 points per game, 18th overall pick in 2020, 22 years old
- Kent Johnson, 0.454 points per game, 5th overall pick in 2021, 21 years old
- Kaapo Kakko, 0.376 points per game, 2nd overall pick in 2019, 23 years old
Those 4 are options, but I don’t expect any of them to be the guy that ends up coming to Montreal
The more realistic options include:
- Arthur Kaliyev, 0.363 points per game, 33rd overall pick in 2019, 22 years old
- Barrett Hayton, 0.396 points per game, 5th overall pick in 2018, 23 years old
- Jakob Pelletier, 0.270 points per game (only 37 career games), 26th overall pick in 2019, 23 years old
- Peyton Krebs, 0.311 points per game, 17th overall pick in 2019, 23 years old
- Alex Turcotte, 0.125 points per game (only 32 career games), 5th overall pick in 2019, 23 years old
- Lukas Reichel, 0.303 points per game, 17th overall pick in 2020, 21 years old
- Oliver Wahlstrom, 0.355 points per game, 11th overall pick in 2018, 23 years old
- Dylan Holloway, 0.157 points per game, 14th overall pick in 2020, 22 years old
- Vasily Podkolzin, 0.266 points per game, 10th overall pick in 2019, 22 years old
Barrett Hayton, Oliver Wahlstrom and Arthur Kaliyev would be my picks out of the group, but I wouldn’t say that any of them are particularly bad options.
Wahlstrom was rumored to be available at the deadline, with the Islanders wanting a scoring forward for him, and while I don’t think Montreal have anyone that they’d be willing to trade and fits that criteria, but at this point Wahlstrom is being healthy scratched more often than not for the Islanders, and I can’t really see anyone giving a player that good for him without the Islanders adding. My guess is Minnesota’s 2024 3rd (currently the 79th overall pick) and Pittsburgh 2025 2nd, which could be anywhere in the 2nd round, Pittsburgh could be anything next season.
Kaliyev has been on the Kings 4th line as of late, although has spent most of the season on the 3rd line, and hasn’t been able to replicate his production from last season. His name came up in rumors around the deadline, I don’t remember if there was a specific asking price for him, but I would guess his value is similar to Wahlstrom, he’s had better stats in the NHL but wasn’t drafted as highly and that might lower his value slightly (not that it should this long after the draft). I’m gonna guess the same package as used for Wahlstrom would be enough for Kaliyev.
Hayton is a different profile to the other 2 targets, he’s a center that specializes defensively, and could have some offensive upside, whereas the other two were projected to be great goal scoring wingers, and have yet to truly become that. Also unlike the other 2, Hayton has been playing 17 minutes per game this season when healthy, and averages 16 minutes per game over his career, but the offensive production hasn’t been there consistently for him. It looked like he finally put it all together at the end of last season with Keller and Schmaltz but now he has 10 points in 33 games and seems like he’s lost again. I feel like the price for Hayton would be a bit more than the others because centers are generally more valuable, Hayton was a 5th overall pick, and he’s shown just how good he can be, but consistency and health have kept him from being that guy again this season. My guess is the Winnipeg Jets 1st (currently 25th overall) and Detroit’s 2025 4th would be about enough, but I’m not a GM, I have no real clue
Such an overpay for Wally. MTL 3rd this year might even be paying to much considering how high it will be. Plus a 2nd? I will drive Wally or pay for his plane ticket is that's the case
Such an overpay for Wally. MTL 3rd this year might even be paying to much considering how high it will be. Plus a 2nd? I will drive Wally or pay for his plane ticket is that's the case
jeez, if that's all it costs I'd do it. I was judging value off of the Dach and Newhook deals but if you say he's not worth that I'll take your word
The Kings have a history of being very patient with their forwards as opposed to defensemen (Walker, Durzi, Faber, Grans); sometimes that works (Byfield), sometimes the jury is still out (DuBois, Kaliyev, Turcotte). If they decide to make either of those youngsters available (which I doubt because they're both coming off their ELC's and will still be cheap), then I think the package you suggest would be fair.
McDavid, Connor
$250,000)
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