small changes

If the Caps were willing to solve Edmonton's complete lack of goal scoring wings that cheaply, Edmonton would have made this trade months ago. Connolly was a UFA two years ago, but so was Eric Staal, and the Wild traded a couple great young players to avoid losing Staal (okay, or some other guys, but I would've picked Staal) in the expansion draft. Player value fluctuates with performance. Connelly has back to back 15 goal seasons and a Stanley Cup ring. He would be the Oilers' best goal scoring wing right now who isn't actually a center. Definitely fits into the Oilers' top six, somewhere.

I'm not opposed to the lineup above, but I think Connolly is worth Dracacula (https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/CGY/2018.html). I'd even throw in Barber for a 4th round pick to get it done.

The down side of bringing up Gersich right away is that then you have one less replacement ready to come up from Hershey after next summer's salary cap crunch, in case Vrana, Burakovsky, and Djoos each has a big year, offensively. If Gersich also scores 20 goals... half those guys are gone. But if Gersich scores 30 goals in the AHL, he still comes up to the NHL next year, at less than 1M. Yes, moving them up early will give someone else time to develop in the AHL, but the Bears missed the playoffs last year. They need more help than the Caps right now. I mean.... unless all those UFAs they added this summer are enough to put them back in the postseason alone?

theres only so many goals that an nhl team can score

assume ovia gets 35-40 (he partied hard down year......worst case)


ovi 35-40
oshie 20-25
backstrom/ kuzy 18-25 each
vrana 15
bura 15-20
wilson 15-20 depending
bottom guys 12 or less

those guys won't see pp time I doubt they produce more then 40-45 points (bura and vrana)

gerish might get 30 points

dojo will bridge deal for 2-2.5

they trade hotly it won't matter frees up a ton of cap

I think Gersich, after 30 points, gets the same salary next year that Connolly gets after 30 points. Makes more sense to keep Connolly until the trade deadline when he's worth a 2nd and a prospect, and then bring up Gerisch then, to get eight points, and re-sign under a million for a coiuple more years. I mean, it makes more salary cap sense, and more trade value sense. If you think Gersich develops more playing 10 minutes a night in Washington than playing 22 minutes a night in Hershey, then maybe you ignore the cap math and the trade value math.... but I'm pretty sure there are offers out there for Connolly at the deadline if he doesn't want a cheap extension to stay with the first team that gave him a chance, and the one he won a Cup with. I don't see a 3rd round pick as worth anything close to BC. I'd rather have both of BC and Gersich available next Spring for the playoffs, and have Gersich at a rookie salary for two more years, than add a mid-3rd round pick.

Now, if the Oilers want to trade Pool Party, they can have Connelly and Burakovsky, and the Caps can role the dice with a bunch of young middle six wingers. But for a 3rd... it's not worth it to them.

id b willing to be bc doesn't break 10 goals next season and has maybe 20 points and will be moved to 4th line.....id rather get a 3rd b4 he's worth nothing.......also a 3rd round pick isn't terrible and most teams don't give away 2nd round picks for guys like bc. just my opinion on it

I agree that his production depends on where they play him. Last year BC, AB, and TW were basically within the margin of error of each other on esp/60. With fewer minutes, BC got fewer points, but not for lack of talent. They could stick BC or AB on the 2nd line to showcase either one for a trade, and keep the other in the bottom six to keep costs low. If they're looking to end up with a younger team, then they move BC up and keep AB down. If they're looking for a big return in a trade, they move AB up and give BC a cheap extension right now. If they're looking to just totally blow up the cap for no good reason, they move Oshie and Wilson down to the bottom six and put three pending free agents in the top six. I think Trotz the last couple years was happy to give guys trying to earn big contracts a lot of opportunities to do so.... and now Oshie and Wison are each going to get paid like top line wingers for a long time. Doing the same with AB or Vrana in a contract year will cement the Caps' position in cap hell in a few years. Better to keep both on the third line, move BC up, and trade him for a 2nd at the deadline, with 20 goals in a partial season. I'm pretty sure Backstrom and Oshie could set anybody up for that many, and have fun doing it.