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Eli

Who adds what?
Member Since
Jul 6, 2017
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Washington Capitals
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Once upon a time...
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 8:47 pm
Thread: Assuming we dont win the lottery
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Rocket</b></div><div>Myers also plays 5 more minutes per game, so even if he proportionally gets more O-zone time, he still is out in the Dzone just as much as Jensen. Plus, Myers gets first line match up duty. He is a very overworked defensemen</div></div>

They're both top-10 among RHD in SHTOI. Myers also gets plenty of power play time, though. I agree he's overworked. Could use a supporting cast. I think Jensen plays a key role in reducing Carlson's workload, but under a flat cap, WSH is going to have to make some sacrifices this summer. It's just a question of what deals make the most sense for them. I think they have depth at LHD, and they have no depth at RHD, so for them to deal an RHD, the trade actually has to be a win.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 6:59 pm
Thread: Minimal changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>" who scores more goals and sets up more goals than anyone else Seattle can get? "
this is a false premise.
At almost 6 mil a year for 4 years of cap space, they could use that in many different ways. From FA to collecting a 1st round pick. They just aren't so limited in their choices that their best choice is a guy who is 35 with 4 years left at close to 6 mil per.
As much as you would like to say hockey isn't purely about skating, which it isn't, but if you can't it's very noticeable and it's the first thing that gets older players send down the lineup. Especially as a forward. There is a whole list of forwards who have skill but can't skate. Check out TOR they got a whole list of them. Most of them are 3rd and 4th line guys. It's not like Oshie is a high caliber player like the ones who are. He's not a Bergeron he's not going to give you close to a 60% chance on the dot every night so they can hide him in the OZone where he doesn't need to use his legs. He's not OV with a rocket of a shot who is probably always going to have the best shot on the team he's on. He's a guy who made his bones being a pesky player, an energy player,, using his legs, etc... So aging does not help his game. The play on the ice kind of bares that out. It's one of the reasons WSH fans want to move him. Believe me if he was still playing like he did a few years ago, no one would be suggesting it. They would move so many other players before him.
We'll agree to disagree. But we'll know once the draft happens. Neither one of use is over here trying to convince Francis, he's already made up his mind by now anyway on what he's doing and who he's taking. He's probably already cut deals with several teams.
My guess is , if they do nothing, that Seattle takes a defenseman from WSH. They got guys there who have value, the can always trade them out later for something useful.

If they make a deal my guess is they take Hagelin and get something for doing it. Because the cap hit is far less and only for 2 years.</div></div>

Wow. You actually have no idea who TJ Oshie is. He's on pace for thirty goals this year, for like the fourth time in five years. He singlehandedly beat Team Russian in a shootout for a bronze medal at the Olympics. The Russians sent out Malkin, Kovalchuk, Ovechkin, etc. The Americans sent Oshie, Oshie, Oshie, and more Oshie. And he beat them. He's got hands for days around the net. He's been net-front on a top-five power play since he arrived in WSH in the summer of 2015, but he's not a power play specialist. At 18 minutes a night he leads the Caps' right wings, still, in ice time. He's only on pace for 110 hits this year, down from his usual 120+, but he's on pace for 30 goals and 35 assists if he could play in 82 games this year. Who else is in the expansion draft who is that good at ice hockey right now? Yes, it's possible that Boston somehow fails to sign Hall, but Hall is on pace for 12 goals this year, so I don't see the relevance. I don't think there's any chance Nuge leaves Edmonton now that they're finally in the playoffs, but Nuge is only on pace for 25 goals this year. He is not currently scoring goals as well as Oshie, even though he plays with better centers. So, no. We don't agree to disagree. I'm right. You're wrong. Oshie is the best player who might be realistically available to Seattle this year. Thanks for playing. Have a nice evening.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 5:49 pm
Thread: Minimal changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>grobkenwood</b></div><div>You mean Kuznetsov and Orlov? Backstrom is a far better value than Kuznetsov even at a higher salary and Oshie is 36th in the league the past 3 years in total goals and 16th in PP goals and is a key penalty killer and arguably the heart and soul of the team. Meanwhile Orlov contributes absolutely nothing on special teams and only had 1 point in his first 18 games this season though he has been better lately, outside of not missing games he doesn't offer a whole lot and will be 30 soon.</div></div>

Orlov really has been better lately. Since March 7th he's 2nd to Weegar in EVP by a defensemen,* either side. http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=game&amp;dateFrom=2021-03-07&amp;dateTo=2021-05-03&amp;gameType=2&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=evPoints&amp;page=0&amp;pageSize=100

I think he started out the year as a stay-at-home partner for Carlson, and took that role a bit too seriously. Orlov needs to rush the puck to be productive, and once the new coaches figured that out, he's been himself again.

*I know, I know, there are four other guys with 16 EVP, but Orlov has more goals and fewer games played. Sorry, Letang, Theodore, Fox, and Chychrun.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PENSFAN18</b></div><div>Seattle is taking Oshie. Washington Native and he's too rich for the Caps to keep. Plus he's older. They won't take Hags contract. He's gonna be 33 he's just about at the useless stage of his career</div></div>

I think Hags to get Vanecek is a very MacLellan type of deal. I'm not sure whether Seattle is the best fit for it. There's probably a team that knows it needs the help in net and on PK. I agree Oshie is a natural choice for Seattle.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 6:22 am
Thread: Minimal changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>this idea that they are picking players for marketing reasons is really flawed.
They don't need to "sell" the team. The arena is already sold out.
What they do need to do is build a good team so fans come back. You aren't doing that acquiring over the hill players.
I would also add that Chara is a pylon. He's a statue out there who can't skate in a league this is getting faster and faster.
He can be the oldest guy to get a fighting major all day. The league by far and away is moving past that with fights way down. He's not a top 4 defense anymore, he hasn't really been for some time. Some could argue he's not even one of the caps 6 best Dmen. Mainly due to the fact that he can't move.
Believe me, if he had anything left in the tank BOS would have kept him. But they knew what everyone else does. He can't move.
It's great that you think these "story lines" are what draws fans, but truth is, no fans really care about that, what they want is a winning team. Which is why no one really cares that Marlaue played the most games ever, because everyone who watches hockey already knows he can't play anymore and has been basically wheeled out there with a sweater to break a record.
The job of a GM is to build a good team. Oshie doesn't really do that for Seattle. He just ends up being a bad contract taken in. An older player while the whole rest of the league is getting younger and faster. That doesn't really build confidence in the team. If anything it says they don't get the modern game.</div></div>

Pens fans. Great. The more I talk sense, the more you repeat your one or two points. Yes. Old people usually skate slowly. But no, hockey is not purely about skating, any more than it ever was. They still make the standings based on which team scores more goals. So a guy like Oshie who scores more goals and sets up more goals than anyone else Seattle can get? They take him if he's available. Also, you might want to look up how many points Francis got when he was 40, if you're hoping to convince him that Oshie can't be any good at 38. Good luck with that.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 10:53 pm
Thread: Minimal changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>I don't know where you get the zucker part. I don't have seattle taking zucker.
That really is not the point.
The point is you got a guy who will be 35 with 4 years on a contract.
as much as you want to he's 51st in points and 4th on the caps that isn't really saying much. No one has faith he's going to stay that, not even you.
You look at the list of guys 35+ who are playing well you got maybe 5.
You look at the list of guys 36 playing well
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2021/goals?limits=age-36-46
Maybe 3?
Everyone knows they are not what they use to be and most are playing bottom roles or frankly should be.
Why the hell would Seattle want to bring in 6 million for that. It doesn't make any sense. Which is why that isn't going to happen. Not without WSH bribing them to take him.
The age of the player and contract length make no sense for any team to take that on.</div></div>

Not every player stays great until they're 38. Ron Francis sure did. Lemieux stayed pretty good. Jagr just won a Czech league championship at 43. I think Francis knows that not everybody has that kind of commitment, but I also think he's probably been watching Oshie for years and has some idea of his work ethic. Chara still arguably plays like a top four defenseman and just set the record for oldest guy with a fighting major. He's not gonna make the all star team this year, but he's still a legend. Oshie is a legend for his shootout win with Team USA. If you're looking to build up a hockey fanbase in an American city, that's a story you want them looking at. If you can't get Mike Eruzione, Oshie is the next best thing. And he's from Washington State. Could Francis ask for a pick? Sure. He can ask. But does WSH mind keeping Oshie? Doubt it.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 9:23 pm
Thread: Minimal changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>you are comparing apples to oranges. Panarin's contract ends at 34, not 38 or 39 or whatever it is. Pavelski has one year left on his and was a 2 year deal when it was signed. JVR ends at 33.
Doughty ends at 37 and is a decent comparable, but that falls apart when he's a defenseman and Oshie is a forward. A. you have a much larger need for defense than forwards in the NHL and B. you can get away with a dip in your speed on defense but not so much at forward. Kopitar is another where I would say that's a bad contract. But still it's only running to 36 not 38. Tacking on those 2 extra years is painful. He also has the advantage of being a much bigger bodied forward. Which tends to lend it self to longevity. But even saying that, his game is not what it use to be now, and I think most people realize that. He is not worth that 10 mil price tag.

Point being, it's a bad contract. You can try to justify it, but he's almost 6 million at 35 with 3 additional years next year. It's a bad situation for anyone to be in taking that on.
It's one thing in guys like Panarin where they are signed till 33-34 years old but you are getting really solid years out of them. But after 32-33, especially for forwards, what you are getting isn't all that.
This is a contract that was signed prior to the league making "the switch" in how they handle contracts. Where they are trying to avoid these +33-34 years in any time of long term agreement.</div></div>

The last three years of Oshie's deal, after a summer bonus, he makes 12M over three years. An average cost of $4M. He's 51st in the NHL in points this year. 4th on the Capitals. He's got 67 hits and 25 takeaways in 50 games.

If Seattle takes Oshie, it doesn't mean they can't also take Zucker.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 9:55 am
Thread: Minimal changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>did they already try to replace Oshie with Mantha?
Figuring to move him out next year. I think it takes more than a 7th to move him out. He's 35 with 4 years left next year. There is no part of that contract that says good.
I have no doubt teams have already cut deals with Seattle. The biggest issue is going to be how many other teams want cap space and what is the cost.
With how things are right now, aka no to little fans. I don't think Seattle is worried about filling seats.</div></div>

By age and cap hit, Oshie would have to be top-100 in points to justify his contract. He's 51st right now. I think some other guys in the top 100 who will be paid more when they are older include Panarin, Tavares, JVR, Doughty, Kopitar, and Pavelski? Any of those guys have negative trade value? No? Then Oshie probably doesn't, either. Especially because he, Kopitar, and Doughty are the only guys in that group who can cover a top scorer or play on a top PK unit if asked. If all you got on him is that he's signed until he turns 38, I don't think that's going to dissuade Ron Francis.

The reason it would cost a 7th for Seattle to commit to Oshie is it means they're not taking Schultz. It would cost more if WSH still has two good goalies available, but I think they trade one before calling Seattle, unless Seattle calls first about taking some cap to get a goalie.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 8:00 am
Thread: Rangers adding size and toughness
Realistically, NYR could get Dillon, Zadorov, Van Riemsdyk and two or three of those UFAs, and come back a lot bigger/tougher/more experienced next fall. Hayes is a reach. Rasmussen, Couturier, and Wilson are consistently unavailable no matter what the offer, on here. I don't think these offers change that.

Zach Jones is a good prospect, but he might not be very exciting to WSH right now because they have so many solid LHD prospects. Blackwell is a 28 year old center with 32 career points. There is a 50 contract limit. Those two don't make a great offer for Dillon. So it's Kravtsov and a mid-to-high 1st for Wilson? Decent value. But in a weird draft I don't know how confident WSH is that they can hit on that pick, and Wilson plays pretty well on the Caps' top line, with or without Ovechkin, so... it's not quite there.

Throw in Schneider, and take out the filler.