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Forum: Armchair-GM1 hour ago
Thread: Neal
Forum: Armchair-GM2 hours ago
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMTD</b></div><div><a href="/users/RoyalBlueSabres" target="_blank">@RoyalBlueSabres</a>
<a href="/users/Pharrow" target="_blank">@Pharrow</a>
<a href="/users/Skyraider112" target="_blank">@Skyraider112</a>
<a href="/users/Eli" target="_blank">@Eli</a>
I know Galchenyuk has been traded twice now, once for Domi and once for Kessel. That sounds like he has a lot of value to me or at least in Chayka and Rutherford opinions. But his value seems to have been tarnished in Pittsburgh.
So is he only worth a pocket of lint? Or can he be reclaimed? The answer lies in the middle IMO.
Over the last 5 years he and Reinhart have similar starts. Over that time Reinhart has 12 more goals, and about 20 more pts, about the difference this year alone.
As a Sabre’s fan I would want to give up as little as possible and trade shall we say extra players. Buffalo has 5 second pairing RHD, so I would want to send one of them. Buffalo also has at least 4 good possession bottom 6 forwards (Asplund, Girgensons, Larsson, and Okposo). Okposo is out because his salary is too high and he is too injury prone. Asplund is out because he cheap and IMO Betterall would not want to trade him. That leaves Girgensons and Larsson, either of them have more goals than Chucky.
So I am offering Bogosian and Larsson for Galchenyuk. I patiently await your ever constructive criticism.</div></div>

Larsson is a passable 3C and a decent penalty killer. I think you're being generous. Could Galchenyuk bounce back? Absolutely. Could he also be done? Sure. No way to predict it. He's clearly got potential to be a 30 goal scorer. Bogo also has the potential to be a #2-3 defenseman. Each is a spare part on their current teams. Throwing in a decent defensive forward means the Penguins win on value. It might not be what they're looking for, but it's very fair.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 hours ago
Forum: Armchair-GM16 hours ago
Forum: Armchair-GM19 hours ago
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>With AA here on Capfriendly I see several proposals a day for AA and when someone from Detroit says it isn't enough. They go off and say he sucks this year or he can't play D and they are partially right AA is having a bad season but his is only 5 points of pace from last season and its not just him the whole team is playing poorly Larkin is 10 point of last years pace. Yes he is bad at defense but he is still one of the 5 fastest guys in the in the game and he has proven he can score. If you think he sucks or he can't play defense and he is so bad then why keep making proposals for him because it's the same people that are so quick to point out how pad he is that make proposals for him every day.

Eli you are not in that group. I decided to rant about AA and I was responding to your comment.</div></div>

Two years ago, a bunch of Caps fans wanted to trade Burakovsky for him, and I thought Burakovsky was better, which may have been completely bonkers at the time, but today, in 20/20 hindsight, I'll pat myself on the back. :)

Yeah, the whole team isn't clicking, defensively. On the up side, they might get to add a generational talent at the draft, so it seems like a year to make some rebuilding-type trades, rather than point fingers or sweat small stuff. If they did want to add a defensively sound wing, though, I could certainly imagine something around your favorite player, Richard Panik.... But I'd rather hear what you think would make that actually tempting than try to guess.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 hours ago
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Detroit isn't trading Bertuzzi. Just about everybody on the Wings is struggling at the 30 game mark they had 22 less goals than the previous season the only 2 players doing better this year are Bertuzzi and Mantha. At that same 30 game point Larkin was 10 points off last years pace and AA was 5 points off last years pace. Now Alexeyev is probably going be pretty good I read some scouting reports that say he is going to be a top 4 guy and I've read a few who aren't ready to say top 4 until he develops some more. I've seen a few Hershey Bear's games this year and he looks like a guy playing his 1st year of pro hockey. Some mistakes/turnovers and he has made some plays that you're like wow. I say the rest of this season and maybe another half season before he is ready he is ready to make the jump. Detroit can't afford to trade one of the few good players the have for a kid who is about a couple years away and is not a sure thing. Bertuzzi in leading the team in goals, assists and points.</div></div>

Great analysis. Even though you say no to all of Washington's ideas, I always feel like I've learned something and I'm happier for having read it. I think Alexeyev might have led his junior league's defenders in points/game last year (his draft+1) so I am not particularly worried about whether he'll adjust to the AHL and make the NHL. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but he seems to be showing continued improvement after the draft.

I think the Caps could use a middle six forward to get some secondary scoring going, and they have a bunch of depth at LHD. Do you see any fit, there?
Forum: Armchair-GM20 hours ago
Forum: Armchair-GM22 hours ago
Thread: Stanley Cup
Forum: Armchair-GM22 hours ago
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMs</b></div><div>Petry is a top30 Dman in the league, Jensen is what top 100 ? Petry is an excellent #3 and Jensen #5. You can’t compare those 2, Petry just turn 32 but is a fluide skater + a late bloomer. He won’t decline for the next 4 years. Jensen is just a plug if Petry gets traded for a 1st + 2nd, giving time to Brook to improve in Laval. Petry is worth a 1st + 2nd round pick no salary retained, so retained 2.75M, you are sending Jensen</div></div>

Depending what we're ranking, sure. You can't really compare Jensen's current shutodown role in WSH to Petry's more offensive role in MTL, but the last two years in Detroit, Jensen played the same kind of 2nd pair two-way role almost as well as Petry on a slightly worse team.

At even strength points over the last two seasons, combined, Petry was 15th among RHD and Jensen only 43rd, so that's a difference of an average top pairing guy to a slightly above average 2nd pairing RHD. <a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&amp;report=skaterpoints&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20182019&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=evPoints,points" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&amp;report=skaterpoints&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20182019&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=evPoints,points</a>

Unblocked shot attempt percentage over the last two years (min 100 games played) with the score close, Petry is 13th and Jensen is 28th (both top pair, but still the advantage to Petry). <a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&amp;report=skaterpercentages&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20182019&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&amp;sort=unblockedShotAttemptsPctgClose" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&amp;report=skaterpercentages&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20182019&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&amp;sort=unblockedShotAttemptsPctgClose</a>

Hits and blocks, the edge goes even further to Petry.

Short handed time on ice, Petry is 16th and Jensen is 19th. They're both below average 1st pairing guys, there. <a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&amp;report=skaterpenaltykill&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20182019&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&amp;sort=shTimeOnIce" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&amp;report=skaterpenaltykill&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20182019&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&amp;sort=shTimeOnIce</a>

Jensen is three years younger. Hockey players typically play their best in their 20s. Jensen is signed for four years, and the Habs' window to contend opens in about two or three years. Jensen is more valuable to Montreal than Petry, due to term, even though Petry is a better hockey player right now, and more valuable to Washington right now. When Kotkaniemi, Poehling, and Domi are all on big contracts in a few years, Jensen's cap hit to be a weak 1st/2nd pairing RHD would be very valuable. He's not as good as Petry, but he can eat the same minutes almost as well, at half the cap hit in the years that matter.

edit: Of course, I don't know much about this new ixg/60 stuff, but Jensen's currently about a hundred spots ahead of Petry on that. Is that stuff any good, ixg?
<a href="http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20192020&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=w1&amp;stdoi=std&amp;rate=r&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=D&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=0&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20192020&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=w1&amp;stdoi=std&amp;rate=r&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=D&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=0&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL</a>

Seems too new to put too much weight into, but let's call them even.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 hours ago
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>Why would Montreal do that Sens trade? I tthink Montreal could get that without retaining on Petry</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BorisBagel</b></div><div>why would Habs trade Petry now? They still have a chance at the playoffs and he's signed for one more season</div></div>

Good questions. Boro is tough, and playoff teams like to add muscle.

People really underrate Jensen. He was a solid 2nd pair D in Detroit the last two years, putting up good defensive stats on a bad defensive team. He was their best penalty killer by a few measures. Wsh, Tor, and Pit fans were all begging for him at the deadline, on here. The Caps ultimately got him for a 2nd and a recent 2nd who was doing well at the time, in the NHL. Jensen's helped the Caps' PK improve from 26th overall last year to where it's hovering around 10th early this season, and it's risen as high as 6th.

Petry is definitely better, but Jensen plays tough minutes against tough competition in Washington, so their offense this year ins't comparable. When he plays the kind of minutes Petry's getting, he can get 20 even strength points. Petry tops out at 30. Jensen is three years younger and signed for two years longer, at the same total price. If MTL were giving up on this year's playoff race, a straight up one for one could be win-win.

If the goal here is for MTL to add a 1st in a deep draft, then I think Petry is definitely worth one even before retention but Jensen isn't far behind. Someone I could see the Caps making a cap casualty of, based on a slow start to the season, is Richard Panik. If you want to do Petry for a 1st, retention for a 2nd, and take back a contract, that's your guy. Then if you wanted to balance depth charts with a minor swap of Johansen for Vejdemo? Great.