Eli

Who adds what?
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Jul 6, 2017
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Once upon a time...
Forum: Armchair-GM1 hour ago
Thread: Neal
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eclipze</b></div><div>Trade doesn’t make sense for either team. Oilers need top 6 scoring so we trade Neal for Panik who has 2 goals? And holtby is gonna cost way too much to resign so he basically a rental. So the Oilers decline. The Caps decline because they are still in contention for another cup run and while he’s showed some potential I don’t think they are comfortable letting Samsonov take the reigns just yet. And mike smith is struggling right now.</div></div>

Thanks. Yeah. I based it on some OIlers fan posts talking about selling high on Neal while he's clicking on the power play with McDavid, and trying to upgrade in goal to contend. I don't think the Caps need Neal.

I'll try to post a more ideal Holtby trade on the Oilers side, to try to see what you're saying about cap space.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 hours ago
Thread: Discussion What is Galchenyuks true value
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMTD</b></div><div><a href="/users/RoyalBlueSabres" target="_blank">@RoyalBlueSabres</a>
<a href="/users/Pharrow" target="_blank">@Pharrow</a>
<a href="/users/Skyraider112" target="_blank">@Skyraider112</a>
<a href="/users/Eli" target="_blank">@Eli</a>
I know Galchenyuk has been traded twice now, once for Domi and once for Kessel. That sounds like he has a lot of value to me or at least in Chayka and Rutherford opinions. But his value seems to have been tarnished in Pittsburgh.
So is he only worth a pocket of lint? Or can he be reclaimed? The answer lies in the middle IMO.
Over the last 5 years he and Reinhart have similar starts. Over that time Reinhart has 12 more goals, and about 20 more pts, about the difference this year alone.
As a Sabre’s fan I would want to give up as little as possible and trade shall we say extra players. Buffalo has 5 second pairing RHD, so I would want to send one of them. Buffalo also has at least 4 good possession bottom 6 forwards (Asplund, Girgensons, Larsson, and Okposo). Okposo is out because his salary is too high and he is too injury prone. Asplund is out because he cheap and IMO Betterall would not want to trade him. That leaves Girgensons and Larsson, either of them have more goals than Chucky.
So I am offering Bogosian and Larsson for Galchenyuk. I patiently await your ever constructive criticism.</div></div>

Larsson is a passable 3C and a decent penalty killer. I think you're being generous. Could Galchenyuk bounce back? Absolutely. Could he also be done? Sure. No way to predict it. He's clearly got potential to be a 30 goal scorer. Bogo also has the potential to be a #2-3 defenseman. Each is a spare part on their current teams. Throwing in a decent defensive forward means the Penguins win on value. It might not be what they're looking for, but it's very fair.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 hours ago
Thread: My prediction if Kovy Stays in NHL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rja</b></div><div>WSH was up against the cap and still sort of is. They moved Stephenson to help with that, but they are still only working with 6 defensemen. I think the Caps should focus on acquiring depth on defense before making an offer on Kovalchuk. I think MacLellan likes the forward depth pieces he has. Also, I do not care if 3 other people predict that the capitals will sign him; that does not take away the fact that with Lindblom out for the season, the Flyers have a need for a depth forward who can still snipe.</div></div>

They were short on cap space before they traded Stephenson.

Now they could sign Kovalchuk and bring up a 7th defenseman without putting anyone on waivers: <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1538800">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1538800</a>
Forum: Armchair-GM16 hours ago
Thread: Just a Backup and sending Ceci to the Moon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Wild aren't trading an NHL goalie with term for an AHLer. If you want to get rid of the Leafs worse RHD, don't trade Ceci, it's been Barrie. This rumour of Ceci being so bad for Leafs started in July and really stand up to the facts.</div></div>

Good point. I think when defensemen score a bunch of points, we all tend to ignore their plus/minus, because we feel the benefits outweigh the risks, but these two have been part of similar risk/reward pairings, with similar career stats. Barrie tends to be the one rushing pucks, while Ceci covers back for some skilled guys. Now that Ceci is not in that role, he seems like just a typical defenseman, and is actually plus a couple. Barrie is still taking risks and getting burned, as ever. Still, offensively gifted defensemen have definite trade value. The guys who cover back for them, unless everything goes really, really well, tend to be overlooked.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 hours ago
Thread: Winger Bertuzzi for stud LHD Alexeyev
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>With AA here on Capfriendly I see several proposals a day for AA and when someone from Detroit says it isn't enough. They go off and say he sucks this year or he can't play D and they are partially right AA is having a bad season but his is only 5 points of pace from last season and its not just him the whole team is playing poorly Larkin is 10 point of last years pace. Yes he is bad at defense but he is still one of the 5 fastest guys in the in the game and he has proven he can score. If you think he sucks or he can't play defense and he is so bad then why keep making proposals for him because it's the same people that are so quick to point out how pad he is that make proposals for him every day.

Eli you are not in that group. I decided to rant about AA and I was responding to your comment.</div></div>

Two years ago, a bunch of Caps fans wanted to trade Burakovsky for him, and I thought Burakovsky was better, which may have been completely bonkers at the time, but today, in 20/20 hindsight, I'll pat myself on the back. :)

Yeah, the whole team isn't clicking, defensively. On the up side, they might get to add a generational talent at the draft, so it seems like a year to make some rebuilding-type trades, rather than point fingers or sweat small stuff. If they did want to add a defensively sound wing, though, I could certainly imagine something around your favorite player, Richard Panik.... But I'd rather hear what you think would make that actually tempting than try to guess.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 hours ago
Thread: Winger Bertuzzi for stud LHD Alexeyev
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Detroit isn't trading Bertuzzi. Just about everybody on the Wings is struggling at the 30 game mark they had 22 less goals than the previous season the only 2 players doing better this year are Bertuzzi and Mantha. At that same 30 game point Larkin was 10 points off last years pace and AA was 5 points off last years pace. Now Alexeyev is probably going be pretty good I read some scouting reports that say he is going to be a top 4 guy and I've read a few who aren't ready to say top 4 until he develops some more. I've seen a few Hershey Bear's games this year and he looks like a guy playing his 1st year of pro hockey. Some mistakes/turnovers and he has made some plays that you're like wow. I say the rest of this season and maybe another half season before he is ready he is ready to make the jump. Detroit can't afford to trade one of the few good players the have for a kid who is about a couple years away and is not a sure thing. Bertuzzi in leading the team in goals, assists and points.</div></div>

Great analysis. Even though you say no to all of Washington's ideas, I always feel like I've learned something and I'm happier for having read it. I think Alexeyev might have led his junior league's defenders in points/game last year (his draft+1) so I am not particularly worried about whether he'll adjust to the AHL and make the NHL. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but he seems to be showing continued improvement after the draft.

I think the Caps could use a middle six forward to get some secondary scoring going, and they have a bunch of depth at LHD. Do you see any fit, there?
Forum: Armchair-GM20 hours ago
Thread: Defensive core Trades with WSH
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>If we are trading Petry, it would mean we aren't making the playoffs hence that Boro trade is useless. I'm confused when you say Petry's points top out at 30 when he's put up 46 and 42 points in the last 2 seasons and he's currently on pace for 41 this season.</div></div>

Sorry. I meant at even strength. Because it's not Jensen's fault nobody puts him on their power play. So, yeah, he's got a third less offense than Petry, in a fair comparison. But he's three years younger at half the cap hit for twice the term. If the Habs figure they're missing the playoffs for some reason, a one for one could be good for each side? Don't know that the Caps really need to mess with their defense right now, but Petry's fantastic, and of course every team would love to try to make him work if he were available.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 hours ago
Thread: Stanley Cup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>markykins1</b></div><div>I also can't see Kovy pushing Vrana down to the 3rd line, he's smokin' it this year so far. Kovy could play 3LW though...</div></div>

Kovalchuk and Kuznetsov can speak Russian together. Vrana and Eller can speak some Swedish together. Also, the third line without anyone to pass the puck has almost no goals this year. Vrana gets Panik and Eller on the scoreboard.

I really like these lines. Nice team. I don't think MTL is allowed to retain Thompson's ultimate cap hit below the current league minimum of 700k, so he's tricky to add unless there's an injury at the deadline. Even if you send Djoos and Boyd to Hershey, you're at the cap with 14F, 6D, 2G. Need cap space for a 7th defenseman. Good checking center, though, and the price is fair.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 hours ago
Thread: Defensive core Trades with WSH
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMs</b></div><div>Petry is a top30 Dman in the league, Jensen is what top 100 ? Petry is an excellent #3 and Jensen #5. You can’t compare those 2, Petry just turn 32 but is a fluide skater + a late bloomer. He won’t decline for the next 4 years. Jensen is just a plug if Petry gets traded for a 1st + 2nd, giving time to Brook to improve in Laval. Petry is worth a 1st + 2nd round pick no salary retained, so retained 2.75M, you are sending Jensen</div></div>

Depending what we're ranking, sure. You can't really compare Jensen's current shutodown role in WSH to Petry's more offensive role in MTL, but the last two years in Detroit, Jensen played the same kind of 2nd pair two-way role almost as well as Petry on a slightly worse team.

At even strength points over the last two seasons, combined, Petry was 15th among RHD and Jensen only 43rd, so that's a difference of an average top pairing guy to a slightly above average 2nd pairing RHD. <a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&amp;report=skaterpoints&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20182019&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=evPoints,points" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&amp;report=skaterpoints&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20182019&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=evPoints,points</a>

Unblocked shot attempt percentage over the last two years (min 100 games played) with the score close, Petry is 13th and Jensen is 28th (both top pair, but still the advantage to Petry). <a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&amp;report=skaterpercentages&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20182019&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&amp;sort=unblockedShotAttemptsPctgClose" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&amp;report=skaterpercentages&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20182019&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&amp;sort=unblockedShotAttemptsPctgClose</a>

Hits and blocks, the edge goes even further to Petry.

Short handed time on ice, Petry is 16th and Jensen is 19th. They're both below average 1st pairing guys, there. <a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&amp;report=skaterpenaltykill&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20182019&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&amp;sort=shTimeOnIce" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&amp;report=skaterpenaltykill&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20182019&amp;gameType=2&amp;leftyOrRighty=R&amp;position=D&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&amp;sort=shTimeOnIce</a>

Jensen is three years younger. Hockey players typically play their best in their 20s. Jensen is signed for four years, and the Habs' window to contend opens in about two or three years. Jensen is more valuable to Montreal than Petry, due to term, even though Petry is a better hockey player right now, and more valuable to Washington right now. When Kotkaniemi, Poehling, and Domi are all on big contracts in a few years, Jensen's cap hit to be a weak 1st/2nd pairing RHD would be very valuable. He's not as good as Petry, but he can eat the same minutes almost as well, at half the cap hit in the years that matter.

edit: Of course, I don't know much about this new ixg/60 stuff, but Jensen's currently about a hundred spots ahead of Petry on that. Is that stuff any good, ixg?
<a href="http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20192020&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=w1&amp;stdoi=std&amp;rate=r&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=D&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=0&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&amp;thruseason=20192020&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=w1&amp;stdoi=std&amp;rate=r&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=D&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=0&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL</a>

Seems too new to put too much weight into, but let's call them even.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 hours ago
Thread: Defensive core Trades with WSH
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>Why would Montreal do that Sens trade? I tthink Montreal could get that without retaining on Petry</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BorisBagel</b></div><div>why would Habs trade Petry now? They still have a chance at the playoffs and he's signed for one more season</div></div>

Good questions. Boro is tough, and playoff teams like to add muscle.

People really underrate Jensen. He was a solid 2nd pair D in Detroit the last two years, putting up good defensive stats on a bad defensive team. He was their best penalty killer by a few measures. Wsh, Tor, and Pit fans were all begging for him at the deadline, on here. The Caps ultimately got him for a 2nd and a recent 2nd who was doing well at the time, in the NHL. Jensen's helped the Caps' PK improve from 26th overall last year to where it's hovering around 10th early this season, and it's risen as high as 6th.

Petry is definitely better, but Jensen plays tough minutes against tough competition in Washington, so their offense this year ins't comparable. When he plays the kind of minutes Petry's getting, he can get 20 even strength points. Petry tops out at 30. Jensen is three years younger and signed for two years longer, at the same total price. If MTL were giving up on this year's playoff race, a straight up one for one could be win-win.

If the goal here is for MTL to add a 1st in a deep draft, then I think Petry is definitely worth one even before retention but Jensen isn't far behind. Someone I could see the Caps making a cap casualty of, based on a slow start to the season, is Richard Panik. If you want to do Petry for a 1st, retention for a 2nd, and take back a contract, that's your guy. Then if you wanted to balance depth charts with a minor swap of Johansen for Vejdemo? Great.