Eli

FuelFan/CapsMourner
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Older than Orpik. More fun to argue with.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 2:02 pm
Thread: Just below the cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jspenc40</b></div><div>If you think Stephenson is the answer to all of the Capitals woes after the way he played this past year, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.</div></div>

You're right that he's not an impact player. Still, Stephenson at 750k would provide better cap value than, say, Eric Fehr at 1M, or any other apparently available option.... and for the Caps to have three left shot centers in their top nine and three right shots on their fourth line/bench would just be a silly imbalance.

A long term answer is for right shot top six wings who sometimes win over 50% of their faceoffs like Oshie, Wilson, and Vrana to start taking a lot more offensive zone faceoffs, when the puck is on their strong side, and to bring back a fourth line of defensive specialists to take defensive zone draws and neutralize top opponents. Starting with possession doesn't always lead to a win, but it does force the other team to chase you and to skate harder, so it might tire them out, over a seven game series. That's the same thing you can say about other little advantages like checking more and blocking more shots, and the Caps haven't hesitated to sign guys who do those things.

Is Stephenson still a better fit in that spot than AJF or Sutter? I don't know. That's what training camp is for. But is he a good enough 4L to win the Stanley Cup? So far, just about 50% of the times he's tried. :)
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 1:26 pm
Thread: Just below the cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jspenc40</b></div><div>Stephenson has barely played center at the NHL level. He is nowhere near good enough to replace Eller's minutes on any given night. Eller doesn't even play 17 minutes a night usually, so I'm not terribly concerned with his workload. Taking faceoffs is also not the only thing a center does. The Caps signed Dowd for three more years to play 4C. They'll probably keep Boyd as the 13th forward because he can actually contribute some offense, but if the option is between Stephenson and Leipsic, I guarantee they did not go out and sign Leipsic just to stash him in the minors. Stephenson will most likely end up in Hershey or with another team.</div></div>

Well, the good news is, they can't end up 32nd in faceoffs for at least another year. :)

Your reductivist straw man is clever, but Beagle and his linemates really did get put out to win a faeoff, break the puck out, and get off the ice in thirty seconds or less, all the way to the only championship in team history,
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 12:54 pm
Thread: Just below the cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jspenc40</b></div><div>Neither Leipsic nor Stephenson are going to be taking anywhere near enough faceoffs to matter. Panik and Hathaway can kill penalties, so Stephenson is pretty much rendered redundant at this point.</div></div>

The Caps were 24th in PK% last year, down from 15th, the year before. On average, teams playing against the Caps did exactly as well as St. Louis (21.1%).

Their top two defensemen by SHTOI both left, this summer, after they lost their second leading forward, the summer before.

They fell to 31st in faceoffs last year, from 13th the year before. Most of that is also from losing Beagle, but a third of it is from new coaches deciding Kuznetsov should take copious defensive zone draws, even when he fell to about 42% efficiency, just to keep him out on the ice more.

Kuznetsov was a good sport about it, even sharing the coaching staff's optimistic hope that faceoffs don't matter if you can get the puck back later, with the press. But the real test of a new strategy is whether it wins in the playoffs, and that idea didn't get the defending champs out of the first round, so it's time to burn it, bury the ashes pretty deep, and get back to what works.

Do the Caps need a left shot checking center when they have Eller? Not really. But if Stephenson sticks around at a low cap hit, it gives the coaches more freedom to keep Eller rested and maximize his effectiveness.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 11:21 am
Thread: Just below the cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jspenc40</b></div><div>Ditch Stephenson, replace him with Leipsic, and use the extra money to sign Vrana to 2 or 3 years at $3.3</div></div>

If Stephenson costs an extra 200k over Leipsic, this makes sense. They're each 25 with 100-150 games. Leipsic has like ten more career points. Stephenson has taken ten times as many faceoffs, but Leipsic wins a bigger percentage of the tiny sample he's tried. Stephenson can kill penalties and Leipsic is untested there, but both get by with good skating. If the difference means Vrana's contract stays low next year to re-sign Backstrom, Leipsic is good enough, and Stephenson can walk, or head back to Hershey.

Some Van fan suggnested trading Stephenson for Goldobin, but I doubt Goldobin is signing for 700k either, unless he's guaranteed a top line tryout, or something crazy like that.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 5:20 pm
Thread: Tough decisions when piggy bank is maxed
Tough decisions, indeed, and I don't see Minny looking to get any older, unless it's for picks. Trading a 30 goal scoring winger for a younger, cheaper 30ish-goal winger is pretty smart, but the other teams get to check those number, too.

Gusev is supposed to be as good as Shipachyov. Moving a 30 goal winger to make room for the buddy of the first guy the Golden Knights famously demoted to the AHL seems unlikely. Gusev scored about as much as Kovalchuk two years ago, when both were in the KHL (one less point, to be exact). Last year in the NHL Kovalchuk got 34 points, and Gusev improved 25% in the KHL, so maybe he's a 40pt guy in a situation like Kovalchuk came over to? Maybe a little better if he finds a team that really has a great situation for him.

Plenty of teams with older Russian guys to mentor Gusev and help him adjust to the NHL will make good offers for him, eventually. Could easily get a 2nd round pick and a B prospect. Just as easily get an established checking line player who fits the cap, if one is even needed. Plenty of prospects, so it doesn't matter too much. A lot of fans think he's going to come over and magically be Panarin, but Panarin played his first NHL season on a line with a Russian center to help him with the language, and Patrick Kane. The Knights are stacked, overall, but they have no Russians after jumping ship on Ship, and no one who's won an MVP award, just yet? So it's not the ideal spot for Gusev. Some teams that have some decent Russian forwards pencilled into their top six and could make offers might include: NYR, Fla, Car, LA, Dal, or Was. Most of those teams are up against the cap, so taking a little salary back could maximize the return.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 2:10 pm
Thread: Blues twitter said no f-ing way to this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ItWasIn</b></div><div>No thanks. Flames have 2 goalies in case anyone is wondering</div></div>

I don't think any team is looking for a goalie right now. Prove me wrong?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jwg314</b></div><div>I’m focused more on trade value and how Blues fans apparently think this isn’t even a starter. I’m not convinced they would even trade him for McDavid.</div></div>

Since no team is looking for a goalie, they have zero current value. This would be an amazingly great deal, based on that. Caps fans are talking about trading Holtby for a 1st and a prospect, and confidentially I don't even think they could get that, this week. Let the season prove a couple teams have weaknesses, and the market might change, but I think Binnington, who hasn't even won a Vezina, gets you a 1st.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 9:51 am
Thread: Shumakov
I feel bad because I was down on Shumakov on this board, the day before he quit Hershey, so maybe I'm just trying to make myself feel better, which is silly, because Shumakov has earned more from hockey already than I will likely earn in my whole life, but still....

the Caps have three terrific Russian-speaking players and we'd all love to see them add a couple more and build on a strength to make their team even better. We're getting distracted talking about Gusev, but the salary cap would require moving Eller, who we know is a terrific two-way NHL center, making him more valuable than I'd predict Gusev is, this year.

So should the Caps focus on lower risk options like Shumakov, Nikushkin, Scherbak, or Goldobin? If I had to guess, only Goldobin earns more than a million this year. Woul the other three want to play together as a scoring line in Hershey, to salvage their NHL hopes, and help each other rekindle what once looked like promising offensive careers? No idea who plays center, but between two former first round picks and a guy who was top-20 in the KHL in points a couple years ago, they should really get something going. Hopefully they earn their way back to the NHL for next year, and hopefully one or two stick around with Washington, when they do?