Cap squeeze

Very realistic I could see these being the contracts for the leafs UFA’s

Sure. Guys on pace for 28 goals and 51 points sign for 2.5 all the time right? Jack everything up a bit

I know its only 2 years, but think Kapanen will get 3.5 or so, (he'll be offer sheeted in a second anyways).

And that defense? Ugh. I think they need to move a forward, probably kapanen for money to spend on dmen.

Kase basically just did that. He was on pace for 47 points last year



Assuming Kap stays on his current pace, which he has slowed down a bit from, he will end up with something like 60 points in 137 GP for his career. Not bad, but a pretty short track record.

He comps pretty well to someone like Anthony Mantha (3.3 mil at 4.15% of the cap, Elias Lindholm (2.7 mil at 3.78%) and Ondrej Kase (2.6 mil at 3.27%)

2.5 is probably a little low, but expect him to land somewhere between those 3 players. Mantha had more games and better performance so he's probably at the high end, Lindholm had just come off a 39 point season, and kase had just come off the equivalent of a 47 point season, but kase also didnt have the pedigree kap does. Somewhere between 2.7 and 3.5ish, seems reasonable, so I'd ball park something like 3.25 on a 2 year.

link for other comps https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/elias-lindholm-5343

As for offer sheets, sure it's possible, but leafs would likely match any offer under $4mil, as the return is only a 2nd rounder and they can go over the cap in the off-season. This would give them time to move him for a better package, or move other pieces to make room. If a team offers over $4mil the comp is a 1st and 3rd and leafs will probably just take that and run. Offer sheets also require the player to actually sign it, which seems pretty unlikely, they dont happen often. We saw how all that offersheet talk worked out with Nylander. It also drives up the price of RFA's on that team in perpetuity, and not many GM's want to do that.

Also funny how the offersheet talk only seems to come up for the leafs, when the crop of RFA's this summer is pretty outstanding.

Nicely put TML1991, and agree that Kapanen and his 60pts in 137 games is no 4mil a year player, (yet).
I know theres lots of RFAs out there, but Toronto is in a situation with M&M&K all RFAs and two of them at the top end, that's why everyone and their brother think Toronto is there for the pickings.

To me its more about the state of the defense: With 4 top forwards getting 45mil (probably more), theres little left to address the defense, so giving Kapanen anywhere near 4mil to me is a no-go for the Leafs.

So giving Kapanen 4mil seems crazy based on his output so far, but unlike 5 1sts for a Nylander, Kapanen is a steal for a 2nd rounder offer sheet, especially given it could be A 2nd from almost anybody…

I think the best deal is to deal him at the deadline for a better offer than a 2nd for salary reasons. Does TOR want to win this year? Sure. But their defense is suspect to me and will be even more so next year, unless they can move some salaries.

Moving Kapanen at the deadline is in the team’s hands, letting him get offer sheeted for under 4mil or paying him 4mil is not in the teams interest.