Doughty might ask for more. But 11 is fair value for him. As is Matthews (depending on his year next year, he might ask for closer to 12).

I think you're underpaying for Nylander and Marner though. They're gonna use Pastrnak's deal as a base. Very similar numbers, and he got 6 year 40 million. Marner should get at least that, Nylander a little less.

I don't see them signing more than 6 years though as an 8 year deal would be a bad thing for them. Making less than 7 million as one of the best players on their team in their prime while the cap will probably be over 100 million. Not the best idea for them IMO.

I don't know if Matthews deserves mcdavid money.. Yes he can sure put the puck in the net. But he is often injured and hasn't won anything. Of course I'd love him on my team. But do I think he should get 11-12.. No I don't think so. Toews and kane had to earn theirs after their 3Rd cup. Mcdavid came off the triple crown winner. Kopitar has had to put in steady years of service to get their. I hope Matthews for tml sake gets a lighter deal.

And doughty definitely deserves that money.. It'd be insane to see that squad with him.

I say this on here a lot, but 1 more time wont hurt...
Pastranak has put up 70 and 80 points the last 2 years (with 35 and 36 goals) and makes 6,666,666 / year
Nylander 61 points each year, 22 & 20 goals
Marner 61 & 69 points, 19 & 22 goals
Nik Ehlers 64 & 60 points, 25 & 29 goals and makes 6,000,000 / year
So when people say they deserve 7+ million, you need to look at the numbers closely. Pastranak is a much better goal scorer, and puts up more points so theres no reason Nylander or Marner should make more than him. So look for them to make something in the low 6 millions. I love them, but no reason to overpay

On another note, I like this post, although I still think this team would benefit from signing a 3rd line centre in the 3-4 million range (Paul Stastny?) and keep Nylander on Matthews wing

I don't think your numbers are far off in any way! As JC says above for every Pastrnak comparible, there is another dozen that likely applies to Willie currently (Marner maybe with another year changes the equation) that would suggest anything from $5.75 to $6.50M. You are also dealing in the Leafs system, and with Lou who traditionally signs his players to team friendly contracts. See recent deals for Reilly, Zaitsev, Brown, Hyman. In addition I also think that Leafs have no intention of moving Nylander to centre, and would like to see Leafs go out and get a solid top 6 centre, using picks, prospects and even one of the non core young wingers.

Pasternak is a pure goal scorer playing on the line with one of the best set up centers in the league with Bergeron. Marner has bounced around the top 3 lines. If Babcock kept Marner Matthews Nylander together they would all be 80+ point getters. Marner was drafted in a top 10 heavy class, I if was drafted in 16 instead of 15 he would have been a top 3 picks - he has just as much skill as Matthews and could command close to 7-8 mill on the open market. If they aren't willing to pay, he probably won't sign a long term deal.

The 2019 UFA draft class poses some interesting challenges for the Leafs, especially with so many good quality, and great quality, defencemen available. Personally, I would love to see the Leafs make an aggressive play to draft Jared McIsaac. Both him and Liljegren should be ready for a real shot at the NHL in 2019-20. That lineup could realistically look something like Reilly - Star UFA, Dermott - Borgman? (maybe) and McIsaac-Liljegren. As such, the odd D out would be Zaitsev with the Leafs not resigning Gardiner. If EOL costed us less, say more than $3 million per season, less than Doughty, it might be worthwhile for the Leafs to explore. Finally, I know the man likes to talk and speak his mind, but based on some of his more recent comments, Doughty might be a tough signing for Toronto.

I understand he plays on a amazing line, but goals are worth more than assists, and its not like he can't dish the puck. For starters Marner and Nylander can't go to the open market so no point bringing that up. Second, why did Ehlers sign long term if he (presumably) is worth more? You can't assume if players don't get the max amount of money, they're unhappy and will leave. Its called fair value. Same reason Matthews won't get 13 million, although I'm sure other teams would pay him that.