As eroded as this roster looks compared to what Chicago has now it's still too optimistic IMO. I think Richards signing for so low was a one-year "I need to prove myself" contract. He'll easily get twice what you've got. Saad might sign for that little but I wouldn't be surprised if it's at least $500K more and if he really wanted to be a dick his agent could probably find a team to offer sheet him $6.5M but it sounds like he knows he's in a good situation and won't do that. And while Panarin's cap hit is only $812,500 if he reaches his bonuses it'll be closer to $3M.

I'm mostly nitpicking. It's possible that Saad & Richards could come to a combined $7M but I think it'll be more like $10M. I think Chicago will land Mike Reilly. It just makes too much sense for him to go there.

I think Richards is absolutely a wildcard at this point. He doesn't need money - he's still getting paid. The question is, what the hell does he want next? Another decent contract. Another chance at a cup here? Somewhere else? After his comments re: Kane and the Hawks, I'm not sold he doesn't stay.

I have every reason to believe Saad takes a 3 yr bridge. 5.5M is totally possible (we just wouldn't call up Danault in that situation, and would keep a 22 man roster.

If Panarin hits every bonus, that overage counts against 2016-17's cap anyway (per the CBA) - so we don't have to worry about that here. I'd be more than happy to lose excess cap in the face of Panarin turning into a 30G scorer.