Massively overrating him in some of these

Thanks for your input. That's pretty exciting if you thought some were close. I know his value was lowered because Trotz scratched him all the time, and some Caps fans even think Jakub Vrana is better now, with two more points in 11 more playoff games, and two more points in 20 more regular season games. If you but Vrana as 2nd line left wing after eight points in 24 playoff games, then why not Burakovsky with six points in a baker's dozen? One key difference is that, before the trip to the doghouse, Burakovsky played up to 21 minutes in one game in the playoffs. I'm not sure Vrana has played 15 in any game yet. Both are very talented young players, and I'd prefer to keep both.

Oh, and I left off a Flyers offer of Hagg and a decent right handed center prospect, that seemed good to me a month ago, on here, but other Caps fans panned as overrating hits. More recently, with Orpik clearing waivers and Gryba clearing waivers, I decided they were right. Then Lamoriello goes out and signs Komarov for 3M and I'm like..... hmmmmm. Maybe?

Which ones do you think look fair?

I like Burakovsky because, in spite of being a frequent scratch, he's made it past ten even strength goals and ten even strength assists in each of the last three seasons. None of the guys I'm proposing trades for can say that. Stralman and Lindholm are consistently there in assists, but not goals. Faulk made ten goals and ten assists two years ago, ten assists at evens three years ago, and neither last year, in his fourth consecutive year at -18 or worse. McNabb hit ten assists last year and three years ago, and finally passed ten career goals this year, at 29, but brings other skills, defensively. Stralman is very good defensively but will be 32 when the next season starts. Burakovsky will be 23 Trading that much youth and skill to a team you hope to see again in the playoffs is kind of scary. In his own, quiet way, Burakovsky has already shown some remarkable consistency on offense.

In my opinion, the best places for Burakovsky to end up for him to flourish would be in Edmonton, Philly, Toronto, or Dallas. The thing that I feel complicates trading Burakovsky is that I really don't know what we want for him. He's a very valuable trading asset, but there's no NEED to trade him right now. His value is also likely lower than what it truly should be after a very down season. He will bounce back, no doubt about that.

Before I comment on what I would suggest to trade Burakovsky, I'm just gonna go down the line with your trades. I'm gonna speak directly on value, disregarding team needs.

Tampa: Disappointing return for the caps, especially considering Stralman is a UFA after this season.
Anaheim: Fair, no clear cut winner
Vegas: Want a little more in return from them. Maybe a second round pick.
Carolina: Might be more fair if a pick was added from the caps. Faulk is a very good RHD who could potentially put up Carlson-esque numbers this year.
Calgary: Calgary probably wants more in return. Switch out Boyd for an early pick (2nd maybe). They don't need Boyd truly. Monahan, Backlund, Bennett, Derek Ryan, Jankowski can all play center.

I think Burakovsky would be best utilized as a piece of a larger deal. One including a roster defenseman like Niskanen, Orlov, Djoos. I'd wanna see an elite player coming back. Otherwise, we're filling holes that aren't there. Trading Burakovsky for a defenseman is fine, it can work out with the cap and the trade value, but we don't need a top four defenseman. We don't need a center. There's no reason to trade him for another middle 6/top 6 winger (depending on where you see him on the depth chart right now).

Make Burakovsky a part of a larger deal, and it makes a lot more sense to trade him. Putting him next to McDavid, or Seguin and Benn, or Tavares and Marner, or Giroux and Voracek would make for some nasty top lines. Those GMs would love a guy with the skills that Burakovsky has and would give up a very good package back if they're receiving Burra and a top four defenseman.

I’ll give you BOS 2019 2nd and a conditional 2020 4th that turns into a third if he resigns

Thank you so much!!! This is exactly the kind of response I asked for and I really appreciate your explanations!

Yeah, I'm kind of writing in response to a couple other Caps posts, I thin by @BetterBrianMaclellan (?) where he's willing to give more to get a defenseman who's had some power play success. But then looking at the Caps, I see Carlson, Niskanen, and Bowey who were the power play point guy on their junior teams and Carlson and Niskanen have some experience there in the NHL.... so I'm trying to look more at defensive stats and what value guys would have on the Caps' 3rd pair and penalty kill. That's why I'm overpaying for a minute eater like Stralman, even on a short, high-priced contract (on which he hopefully doesn't want a raise?). McNabb just about replaces Orpik's toughness. At that point, I don't care that he's six years older than Burakovsky with less than a third of the offensive ceiling. If Orpik isn't coming back, he's the next best thing. The Islanders went full Hansen Brothers this July, and the Caps need to stay pretty tough to keep up.

Carolina: pass, then. Faulk's even strength assists have nose-dived over the last four years, from 21, to 16, to 11, to 7. Two years ago he broke out with 13 even strength goals, but in his other six seasons he's averaged four even strength goals per year, with a hgh of six, and a mode of three. So, yes, he could break out like Carlson somewhere, most likely in Edmonton. If they get that offer, Carolina should take it. Last year Faulk had six more even strength points than Bowey. Next year, on a third pair together, Bowey could outscore Faulk.

Burakovsky and a 2nd for Lindholm? Yeah. I'd still do that one, first, just to replace Beagle's faceoffs, but also to add a very talented playmaker and keep the team young.

I wouldn't trade Orlov or Niskanen at all, though. They're a pretty good shutdown pair, together, and their total lack of power play time in Washington leaves them with disproportionately low trade values, for how talented they each are as two way players. That leaves Kempny, Bowey, or Djoos. The team is short on developed prospect depth at right defense, but could still hopefully fill that out in free agency with someone who, at even strength at least, is as good as what they'd get in trade, but either way, trading Bowey for a right defenseman is like pulling yourself up by your boot straps. The other "hole" is for a crease clearing, nasty, mean defenseman. Schenn's off the market, but Orpik's available. McNabb is eight years younger, though, and faster.

To my mid, Djoos and Kempny are interchangeable talents. One is younger and less expensive, but the other is signed long term. Teams might want one over the other, and that's fine.

I don't particularly want any of any defensemen from Edmonton in Washington, I'm undecided on just a couple from Toronto, and the ones I'd want from Philly and Dallas are probably still out of that price range. No?

Hi, Larry....... us.

Obviously Burk shows flashes of great talent, but he has been a really frustrating player because he cannot seem to make that jump to consistent 2nd line play. You point out that Burk had more points per game than Vrana did in the playoffs, but if you were watching the playoffs (which I'm sure you were) you could see vrana being a force almost every shift. High-end speed, and he was flying all over the place and was ringing the post again and again. He was playing out of his mind but just was not showing up on the stat sheet. Things can change obviously, but Vrana has (as of now) surpassed Burk on the depth chart. Burk could turn that corner, don't get me wrong, but I believe the emergence of Vrana has made Burk expendable. Yes, Burk came in clutch at times during the playoffs, but he also was incredibly predictable on the puck. He flys down a wing, takes it 3/4 of the way into the zone and slams on the brakes. He often would get the puck poked or would actually slip. Stats are important, but looking at the tape, Vrana was in a different gear than Burk. Side note: Vrana knows how to get a shot on net, which Burk has not been able to do consistently.

Bowey had 12 even strength points, but most of them were secondary assists that resulted from him just dumping the puck off to someone else who passed to the goal scorer. I do remember he had one incredible stretch pass to Chandler Stephenson that set up a goal. But, he has not looked great in wall play and often times will get beat in board battles. So that is why I feel that pointing out the number of ES points he had compared to other players might not actually reveal a whole lot in his favor. I'm sure we can all agree his shot looks great and he has great size, but I'm not sure the talent is there to become a top 2 guy. I do think he could sneak into the top 4 of a d-core, but I must admit, I am not confident. I think now is a time to maximize his trade value. But, he is still young, and I hope I am proven wrong. I'd love to see the guy succeed, but I also don't wanna lose out on getting value from him. Going into last season, I was really down on Wilson (and I loved being proven wrong by him). Let's hope something similar can happen.

Ultimately, looking at the stats for both Burk and Bowey can tell a story, but I am not sure it is the most accurate story that projects where their careers could be going. If you just watch the tape and see how Burk and Bowey play compared to say, Vrana and Djoos, there are major differences that set them apart, despite all being young. The way Bowey generated points was merely from him being on the ice Burk has those flashes and that is awesome, but inconsistency has always been the problem. When you look at V and Djoos, you can see those are guys that could have gotten way more points, but were robbed by the post or limited because of ice time.

That's my two cents on Burk and Bowey.

I think the Caps' need on defense after winning the Stanley Cup and returning everyone but Brooks Orpik is Brooks Orpik. If Orpik's coming back, they're fine for a year, and if they don't like Burakovsky, then they should play Bura in their top six all year, introduce him to the power play, and get him thirty goals. If they like him, they should just give him a cheap extension so we can stop speculating. But if they don't like him, then I'd want to see him traded, after they quit sandbagging and let him break out for 30 goals and 60 points, for a Zadorov or a TJ Brodie; someone who hits almost as much as Orpik and scores as much as Orlov or Niskanen.

Philadelphia might be developing a similar guy in Sanheim or Hagg, but neither is there yet. Edmonton aren't moving Nurse. The difference between Burakovsky and Klefbom is that Burakovsky has spent a third of his career as a *healthy* scratch. Dallas certainly has one great offensive defenseman, but he ain't moving. Who might be available? Toronto has Zaitsev, who is intriguing because he hits a lot and speaks Russian, but who isn't much of a puck mover. Still, if you find a cheap Russian speaking right wing.... for instance, Stan Galiyev, who was 4th in the KHL in playoff points this Spring.... and put together a unit of all Russian speakers, maybe you get even more out of Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, and Orlov? Zadorov is younger and better than Zaitsev (and Orlov has shown he can play either side, so in spite of handedness, Zadorov), but Colorado probably aren't moving him cheaply. I wonder if Kempny, Burakovsky and a 1st could change their minds.

I like these trade ideas, which I think are all largely beneficial to the Caps for a guy they are most likely going to have to let walk next year. I think McNabb is the guy I'd most like to see out of the group you've listed here - as you mentioned, he's a (relatively) young, gritty, guy, can eat minutes, with assistant captain level character (as recognized by VGK), and will chip in a handful of points on the bottom pairing. Plus, he is signed to what I would view as a team-friendly deal for his level of contribution both in terms of length and cap hit. I actually view him as far more of an asset to this particular Caps organization than Faulk or Stralman. Faulk would demand top-four minutes and time on the PP, which is likely justified, but a difficult position for a Caps team that already well-stocked in the top-four-right-handed-two-way defenseman department. Stralman is solid as well, but you run into some of the same positioning issues and, in my mind, why not take somebody that is younger, on a better team deal, with a more clearly-defined role in McNabb?

I like the idea of trading out of conference - from Dallas, what about Stephen Johns? He's not their best/most coveted RD, so I think for the right package, so he's possibly on the table, although the Caps definitely have to give up more than any of the deals you've outlined. I'll create a roster called "Stephen Johns" with my trade idea plus the rest of the lineup. I think he's just barely unproven enough to be able to swing him into a 3rd pairing this year, and he still brings a decent amount of toughness (21st in hits last year - McNabb was 12 and Orpik was 16). Then, you can let him and Niskanen battle it out for the top four role next year, and possibly use the other one as trade bait to recoup any assets lost during free agency next offseason. I will admit that this idea probably creates a problem with Bowey, though.

The big x-factor in that salary cap puzzle is how much they have to pay Tom Wilson. If it's 3.5M or so, long term, they they can keep Burakovsky. If it's 5.5M, they're already pushing the limit.

Yeah, it's funny that we're calling 29 young in hockey years, but compared to Orpik, McNabb skates around like a spring chicken in the wind. If you could hire Orpik as assistant coach to run the defensive pairings, and teach everybody a little bit more about how to safely and comfortably finish checks (and maybe teach Wilson how to hit a bit lower, so that he mostly just knocks guys flat, without injuring so many), then I think McNabb could be a bigger asset this year on the ice, and stay "young" for as long as Ovechkin does, so he can keep the Caps competitive right now.

Johns' hit totals are great. The Dallas fans I asked on here a month ago wouldn't name a price, just said he's going to be in their top four for a long time. Zadorov got 275 hits last year, though, and 17 even strength points. That puts him in top four territory, about even with DeMelo, except also tough. I mean, for offense and minute eating depth on the right side, I'd sign DeMelo. But in terms of actually replacing what this team loses if Orpik retires, Johns, Zadorov, or McNabb might be great pickups. I think they could get Johns or McNabb for Burakovsky and a 3rd. Zaitsev might cost Burakovsky and Kempny. Zadorov, or Provorov might cost Burakovsky, Kempny and a 1st. I posted an offer almost that good to Colorado (I added Travis Boyd, but took back a 2nd from Col). No answer yet. Everybody's on vacation.

Or they can sign Orpik for one more year, play Burakovsky in the top six, and on half their power plays, get him to thirty goals, and sixty points, and trade him for Zadorov or Provorov, straight up. Orpik was weak all season but straight fire in the playoffs. If he can be that good again in next year's playoffs for a million bucks, they don't need to rush, and there's a chance Lewington moves up in another year..... also, Matt Read is still in the UFA bargain bin. Team toughness can come from any spot, and Read, in the press box, at 650k, or in the AHL at no cap hit (which means for him that he's back in Pennsylvania), can still come up in the playoffs if they draw the Islanders, and can still pummel one of their goons a couple times.

So none of these seem like huge needs. Just possibilities.

But if they did trade Kempny, Boyd, and Burakovsky for Zadorov, Zadorov's current cap hit of less than 3M leaves them with a bunch of cap space to sign WIlson and chase UFAs.

All very, very good points. In all likelihood, I think GMBM probably does nothing at all in the trade department. Sign Wilson & Bowey, then go after Orpik or DeMelo, depending on where the new coaching staff wants to take the defense. Hell, sign them both if they can.

Yes. Both. And a backup goalie who . And can help keep Holtby fresh if the transition to the NHL stresses out the kids. Then still trade Djoos, Barber, and Vanecek for Stephen Johns or for Nikita Zadorov, or add a 2nd and try to get McNabb. And then let Burakovsky swing for the fences, and if they can't afford his contract after he scores seventy points, trade him for a Zadorov or a Provorov, and a pick.

Buy low. Sell high. Lewington and Obrien might supply enough team toughness in 2019-20, so one year at one million for Orpik to stay on as player/coach, and, yeah, maybe 1.2x2 to DeMelo?

I agree with everything you saw out of Vrana. In playing cards, he's a 9, with his speed and decent shot, but the Caps have a team of 8s. Not as high in quantity, but bigger, fatter numbers. In the playoffs, when teams hit more and fewer penalties are called, some reporter pointed out that this was the first time in a long time that the Caps iced a bigger team than the Pens. So I do think those size and weight stats count, but if you want to talk about primary points, I don't even remember where to look those up for comparable rookies. I do know how to check the goals scored in juniors, where Tom Wilson's best year of 23 is about even with Madison Bowey's best year of 21.
On a team with a whole bunch of big, slow, tough checking guys, someone who skates fast enough to dodge checks and take a shot is going to stand out like a breath of fresh air, but trading Burakovsky doesn't just mean making room for one guy like that on the left wing behind Ovechkin, who is getting to be more of a tough checking guy with a great shot..... between Vrana, Walker, and Gersich you've got three guys on the left wing ready to play that same Zednik/Krygier role. Trading BUrakovsky means that depending where some of the three 5C guys slot, you could get up to three speedy wingers a night playing behind Ovechkin. I think there's some value to having another left wing with some size to keep wearing down other teams' right defensemen.

I agree that Vrana, Gerisch, and Walker look fast against good NHL teams. But when they're at top speed, they aren't looking for passes, so they arne't scoring much because they are predictable. I do remember the playoffs, but I also remember watching a quick line with Hossa and Heatley come into the phonebooth back in the day, all moving faster than any of the Capitals, and still thinking about where each other were, staying in a triangle and not a straight line, and keeping the lines of that triangle in the seams between the Capitals. They didn't just skate into the zone at 30mph and ring a weak wrister off the post. They blew past the defense and made three crisp passes at speed so Kolzig fell over, and they could shoot into an empty net.

I remember Trotz coming in, meeting Ovechkin, and promising to teach him new ways to play defense and not tell him anything about offense. I think he kept both promises, team-wide. So now I'd rearrange the assistant coaches and get another offensive tactician in there. From a sentimental standpoint, I'd suggest Bondra, who grew up speaking Russian, and transitioned his own game in Washington from a speed game to one involving getting open at the top of the circle for a one timer, or Nikolishin who may have helped Bondra change his game a bit, and then went on to coach in Russia. But really, if you just find someone whose junior team gets a whole lot of assists, and who can show a few books of basic whiteboard plays to explain why.... It ain't rocket surgery. Walker is no longer waiver exempt, but Vrana and Gersich should spend a year together, playing 20 minutes a night, with a tactician coach who rewards them for every pass they complete before they shoot, and helps them brainstorm ways they could get more passes across to each other, when they sit down and watch game tape. They can still come up as injury replacements, or whatever, but I'd rather see them each develop into a Hossa than a Krygier. The sooner they learn to pass and to get open at their top speed, the more they can live up to their potential.