I like the trade ideas, individually, but you're right that this team needs to sign Gusev and Karlsson, and then hope for good chemistry to contend any time soon. Signing those two is much easier with Ovechkin and Backstrom than without them. Cap moves can be made at a loss afterwards, if necessary, since both will be UFAs next summer.

Of course, if Galiev is still an RFA, his .79 playoff ppg this Spring were about as good as Gusev's .80 (https://en.khl.ru/stat/leaders/472/pts/). I have no idea whether Reirden left a better impression on Galiev than Trotz did, but it's worth noting that for all of the year and a half Galiev spent on the Caps roster, he got four points in just 209 minutes of icetime. That's how much John Carlson play in eight games, but it took him 26. Definitely better to leave him in Ak Bars this year where he plays top line and develops, and then consider signing him next summer if/when one of DSP/Connolly walks. Gusev has had three years of ppg regular seasons in Russia. Galiev, at the same age, has done his best work in the AHL, and on the Caps' practice squad. He definitely needs to stay where he can get icetime, but I don't see either of them signing up to join the Caps right after Ovechkin leaves. I could definitely see both of them signing up to play next summer if Connolly and DSP are too expensive and the Caps convince Ovechkin to call them up and ask nicely.

Karlsson wants to win. He wants to be a big star. Joining a medium market team like the Caps would be a push except that they just won the Cup and they have arguably the best group of Swedish players in the NHL (for now. Buffalo will hold the honor in two years, whether or not it signs EK). Keeping Backstrom, Burakovsky, Djoos, and AJF in the fold gives Washington pretty good odds to convince Karlsson that, for the same money, he'll have a better time playing in DC.

Nice analysis!

And for the trades, value wise, I think Ovy and Carlson are worth more than what you're obtaining for each of 'em. I think that both McPhee and Shero are laughing hard right after you offer them those deals because they're easily getting the best of them. Maybe rework them a little bit? Also, MIN is giving away too much for what they're receiving. Spurgeon & Granlund have tremendous value. Maybe you underestimated them a bit

How many pucks we talking for Orpik?

Originally I had the 2nd be a 1st in the VGK trade and now 3rd from us in the NJD trade. Severson is really underrated. He's not that far from Carlson but gets paid a lot less.

I think that's a solid cap-savings trade to make as soon as Karlsson signs in Washington.

I see where you're valuing Gusev as a likely superstar in the Vegas trade, but it's worth noting that because Ship didn't stick in Vegas, there (a) precedent for the possibility that Gusev is a bust and (b) almost no chance Gusev signs with McPhee this summer. Trading for Gusev's rights this late in the offseason probably costs a 3rd. Not trading for them means you have to give him the most bonuses allowed on an ELC next summer to outbid STL and TB. I'd give up the third, plus Barber, and try to get him over now at 1M