Johnson doesnt waive his NTC, and Tampa cannot a Ford to resign panarin.

Panarin says he wants to live by the water, and is friends with Kucherov and Vasilevskiy. If he wants to contend for a Cup in Tampa (which probably sounds appealing), he would have to take a massive discount (he would basically have to keep his current salary). If he doesn't, while it would definitely not be ideal to lose Johnson and a 1st and then lose Panarin for free (so we lose several assets for one improved season), it's not the end of the world - it more or less solves our cap problem without forcing us to give up any prospects.

Johnson probably wouldn't want to waive his NTC, but the Blue Jackets are still a good team that has made the playoffs twice in a row, came close to upsetting the Stanley Cup champions, and is on the way up. It wouldn't be that surprising if Yzerman could convince Tyler Johnson to waive and go there.

I highly doubt we get Panarin at all, and if we do, I'm not sure I can imagine Tyler Johnson being the one to move (it would more likely be picks + prospects only, and if the Blue Jackets don't accept, we're fine anyway). But, if the actual value of the trades are about even (which depends on how much the Blue Jackets like Tyler Johnson), this is probably a plausible scenario.