Ok here is a link to the low down on the LTIR. https://slappersandstats.com/2016/03/01/clarifying-the-long-term-injured-reserve-ltir/

And I am in error Horton would not be on the LTIR right now because if they did they would not get any CAP relief as the article explains since they were-are so far under the cap.

oops computer problems ended up posting the above twice so removed this one

Ok....mostly yes to your comment...and a little no...but only because the Leafs are a unique kind of case.

Actually...that whole article pretty much speaks to the genius that is Lou Lamouriello....

But the general premise (and this website used to account for it when making ACGM teams but since moved away from it....remember when placing someone on LTIR you had to choose between 2 options?)....sorry...the general premise is that if you place someone on LTIR, you can exceed the cap ceiling....but only if you don't have enough cap space to replace the player.

So if a guy with a $4m cap hit goes on LTIR...and the team is operating $1m below the cap ceiling....they can exceed the cap by $3m ($1m of the LTIR contract goes to the unused portion of the cap limit and the remaining $3m can go over the limit).

That article gives the great example of how Lou maximized the amount the leafs could exceed the cap by waiting until he called up a reserve that put the leafs within $100k of the cap ceiling...that way almost the entire amount of Horton's $5.3m was available to the leafs. Further...since everyone knew Horton was never playing hockey again...Lou could add significant, permanent pieces (not just an AHL callup) because he didn't have to account for the possibility of Horton returning from injury and coming off LTIR.

Now on to this season...it's absolutely right to say the Leafs haven't put Horton on LTIR because they haven't needed to...putting him there when they had more than $5.3m in available cap space would have had 0 impact on raising their cap ceiling. Even now, it wouldn't make sense to add him unless they filled their roster as close to $79.5m as possible.

The one wrinkle...and the reason I think they won't add him at all under any circumstances...is that in order to get close enough to the cap ceiling to utilize LTIR, you effectively remove any cap space available to pay for performance bonuses...so they all have to roll over to next year's cap.

Here's the one thing I am uncertain of... Let's say the leafs fill out their cap to exactly $75.8m (this is the cap ceiling less their performance bonuses of $3.7m). If they place Horton on LTIR at that exact time, do they gain $1.6m in cap space? ($75.8 + $5.3m = $81.1m...which is $1.6m over the limit).

My understanding is 'no'...which is why I believe using LTIR on Horton forces all performance bonuses onto next year's cap.

If you are using LTIR cap relief for salaries then yes 100% of the performance bonus will be carryover. If you put a player on LTIR and do not get into the releif you have some cap to apply to bonuses.
Example.
79.5 million cap
76.5 million cap hit when you put a 6 million cap hit player on LTIR.
76.5 million + 6 million = 82.5 million max cap hit with the LTIR relief of 3 million (6 million - the difference between 79.5 cap hit and 76.5 mill cap when put on LTIR.
If the replacement players only need 1 million of cap hit that will make the teams total cap hit 76.5 + 1 = 77.5 million for the year and there is still 2 million that can be applied to performance bonuses.

ok...but in that scenario why put the player on LTIR at all? You only need $1m in space for your replacement player and it still gives you $2m to pay bonuses...that's the case whether he goes on LTIR or not.

I agree you probably wouldn't

Trades during the year could also effect this. Say at the beginning of the year the team cap was 79 million and you put the 6 mil player on LTIR to generate 5.5 million possible LTIR relief to be able to get that 1 million replacement player (.5 cap + .5 relief). Then later you trade away a 3.5 million player for a 1.5 million player. That will open up 2 mil of cap space so now that 1 million replacement player no longer needs to go into the LTIR relief and there will be some room to apply to bonuses