Absolutely no way Marner takes that.

I'm curious what you think he gets on a 3yr deal then? Or are you saying that he simply won't sign a 3yr deal full stop?

This would be the highest bridge AAV ever ...

Im sure he either wants long term (8 years) or to his first UFA year. Either way he wants Matthews money and he's not going to take 3 million less. His agent already came out saying that he won't be taking no discount. Best bet is 88 Million for 8 years and fine takers for Nylander and Zaitsev ( if even possible) in the offseason.

Well we fundamentally disagree then. lol

If he's demanding $11M AAV, then let him try to find it as an offer-sheet. That way the compensation for the Leafs is: no ridiculous contract and four 1sts (probably from a bubble team). Marner is special, but he isn't Auston Matthews where the offer-sheets would be no-brainers for opposition teams. The Leafs only need to get through the last year of the Marleau contract and then they can re-allocate some of that money back to Marner for the future, if he isn't willing to play ball in the meantime, he can kick rocks. The Leafs should feel much more comfortable giving him the Nylander treatment (i.e. not fearing a hold-out) than they did with Matthews.

Marner is both smart and confident. I'm not saying he'd take this deal...but certainly can't agree there's 'no way'. If he simply stays at his current level of production...in 3 years he knows he'll earn himself a contract richer than what Matthews is making. Hell...he might be better off taking a 1yr extension and seeing where the cap goes again next year + enjoy some of Marleau's expiring contract for himself.

4 years is probably the only term the leafs will absolutely not accept.

true, but the way he's playing now I'm sure he would want his pay day after this season. He can sign a 1-2 year bridge deal and then fall off and miss out on his big pay day. He could even get hurt and be screwed. Im sure he wants something long term or even a 5 year contract at around 10-10.5

Agreed with all of this. Although, I don't think they want a 5yrs term either since it means Marner expires at the same time as Matthews again. Not saying it would be an absolute non-starter, but I think it's really poor succession planning.

Matthews wanted 8 years too. As I'm sure the leafs would prefer 8 years on all these guys....but if the only way to extend them at an affordable AAV is to shorten up the term so that they still have the opportunity to score big on their 3rd contract...then that's the game. Marner is ultra confident in his abilities. If he signs a 1-3 year bridge his mindset will be how much more he'll get next time...not a 'what if I start sucking or get hurt'

Auston Matthews was in a unique tier of RFA that held all the cards. Marner, while still a special talent, is not in the same tier. Other teams would have to think twice/thrice/etc. about whether he's worth an overpay + four 1sts (not so with Matthews). The Leafs ought to be able to make Marner wait through a bridge. The other pinch point for Marner in this logic is that, if he does hold-out ... he's definitely losing more than $8M in real money if he doesn't get an offer-sheet b/c he's lost a year of salary in his prime.

Yep...definitely better to stagger the big contracts. As of now, Matthews and Nylander need to get done at the same time....and you probably want to avoid having Marner come due at the same time as Rielly....but I think these are 'wants' vs 'needs'. The leafs 'need' to fit everyone under next year's cap and that may have to come at the cost of not being able to stagger the contract expiries