Why would Florida add a 2nd to get Russell even at 3M? It will take more than that to dump Lucic, like a mid first in some previous posts. Other than that I agree that 3rd line would be effective and your thoughts on managing the 3rd pair. Even Eakin instead of Connolly to C that 3rd line would make it an even better energy/forecheck line.

Any Lucic-to-Vancouver trade is hard to gauge, but I do not agree with a blatant overpay to make it happen.
- Eriksson has bagged the coaching staff and his usage in recent history. Hasn't directly asked to be traded, but he's damn close to that point
- Vancouver and Edmonton have previously had talks about a Lucic trade, but Edmonton's ask was too high
- The cap balances, but the term does not. However, it's a matter of an extra year, and if Lucic waives his NMC to go to Vancouver, he will not need to be protected during expansion
- Lucic is 3 years younger and has outproduced Eriksson since both signed their massive extensions
- There is an appeal to a percentage of the Vancouver fanbase to replace Eriksson with the physicality of a hometown boy
- Vancouver brings back more value in this trade than a straight one-for-one would achieve

If Edmonton is moving Lucic with something along the lines of a mid-first, prospect and a second, or something of decent value, it would mean that Edmonton is eating a lot less salary coming back than in this case. That scenario represents Edmonton purging that money from their books and starting over, this setup doesn't. I think the 3rd Round pick is ultimately too generous as Safin might get healthy and start producing at the AHL level, but it sweetens the deal for Benning and the Canucks management enough to the point where I don't know how they refuse. What nixes this deal is Eriksson refusing to come to Edmonton (I wouldn't blame him) should he opt to not waive his NTC.

Florida makes that move due to the relationship they have with Pysyk, to dump Reimer, and make big pitches to both Panarin and Bobrovsky this summer. It frees up $3.1M for them this summer while keeping their cap situation relatively the same going into 20-21. The 2nd is payment for taking Reimer, as the Pysyk-Russel swap is already relatively even. Hawkey is thrown in for free as Florida badly needs prospects in every position and Edmonton is unlikely to sign him. Reimer's statline doesn't paint a clear picture of what he is, and his concussion history makes his remaining term incredibly risky for any team to bank on.

Depending on the cost to acquire Eakin, the Oilers should be interested in his services. He's likely a better option than Gagner on PP2, and it would allow Edmonton to run McDavid and Draisaitl together, but Edmonton is in a position where it needs to retain as many of its picks and prospects as possible. Because of Vegas' need to shed salary this summer, I can't see a deal that revolves around Benning and spare parts being enough to make it happen: there will be better deals for the Golden Knights.

Unfortunately age has been no benefit to Lucic and he was better 3 years ago but not today. I would argue Eriksson has more upside because he is at least responsible defensively and has a proven PK pedigree. Any hometown bonus will quickly evaporate just like how the fans have turned in Edmonton. That extra year is right as Vancouver is contending and having to start paying young players. If they are going to pay Seattle to take Lucic they might as well just do that with Eriksson now.

Safin and a 30% chance at an NHLer is below what the Canucks would have to pay Seattle to take the contract.

Even at equal salaries Pysyk has more value because of his position. As well Pysyk has had consistently better shot and giveaway differentials playing similar minutes. If he is a free agent this year why would Florida just not wait. Pysyk and a slightly retained (500,000) Reimer for Russell would be closer to fair value.

I think using some combination of Safin, a 3rd, Hawkey, and a 5th or similar assets would be enough to get Eakin.

Loui Eriksson's regression due to his age is likely already started and unlikely to regress to anything close to his career highs, whereas there is room to argue that a change in scenery for Lucic could result in a year or two of increased production. The narrative of "big hockey" has legs again, as two teams with reputations that lend themselves towards physicality find themselves duking it out for ultimate glory. If the Canucks are looking to contend before Hughes and Pettersson price themselves to massive contracts, is that element of physicality and energy not desirable? Despite Eriksson's deployment, he is fighting a losing battle in terms of goal shares per 60. Every 60 minutes of hockey that features Eriksson on the ice results in the Canucks allowing 0.5 more goals per hour. Lucic has a positive differential of 0.2 goals per 60 in this category, and spent a lot of time away from McDavid this season and near 50-50 usage between zones. Using Eriksson's TOI, that results in 13 fewer goals against over the course of the season for the Canucks. How many one-goal games does that push into overtime? How many overtimes do the Canucks come away with the extra point with 13 fewer goals against? If those 13 goals correlate to 13 more points in the standings, the Canucks would have made the playoffs.

It will cost either team substantially more to dump either Eriksson or Lucic on Seattle. Vegas got the Clarkson contract - with no cap implications - and it still cost a king's ransom. I expect the price to come down a bit, as GMs won't be in such a panic to lose an asset, but the cost will be far greater than a prospect and a 3rd Round pick.

Pysyk's issue in Florida isn't his value. Tallon does not like him. It's up to Quenneville to form a new relationship with the player, but there is existing bad blood. Russell, despite all his flaws, plays a style that Tallon appreciates, and is comfortable on his off-side. There isn't a large market for defencemen this season: if Florida is looking to move Pysyk, replace him with an NHL option, and afford to go all-in on the 2 big Russians this summer, Russell is a fit. Not a sexy one, but the math checks out. If Reimer is at risk of being a dead asset at any point remaining in the final two years of his deal, how is a half-million retained enough to make the value fair? Florida isn't losing a 2nd Round Pick for nothing here: there is a later pick and a prospect coming back, and they're freeing up money for now. Teams don't take cap dumps for free, especially those unlikely to finish their contracts.

I have zero interest in spending 4 assets to acquire a year of Eakin from a team with less than no cap space. Again, Edmonton is in a position where retaining as many picks and prospects as possible is pivotal to sustained success. Unless the trade can be worked out as Benning and a low pick for Eakin, there isn't interest.

As you pointed out Lucic spends time with McDavid and any time with McJesus exponentially boosts your stats. Yes he didn't play much this year with him but I'm gathering your on 2-3 year windows because Lucic got buried this year by Hitchcock and he was more 45-55 zone starts. Eriksson's best linemates were the Sedins a year out of retirement, not the best.

In no way am I saying Eriksson is good. I would not touch him but I do think he is better than Lucic and that could be an endless debate.

I like Pysyk - Russell for the Oilers but I think Tallon is above selling him for cheap because he "doesn't like him". Reimer had a bad year and is slightly overpaid but he is a league average goalie over his career. Injury history is concerning hence why I would target a cheaper guy in FA because I don't think Fla pays a 2nd to dump him when a year of Lucic only costs a 3rd.

I think Benning and a 3rd is possible and I would do that but that's me.

As for "heavy hockey", the common thread both teams have is speed and size. Lucic is not fast, he is closer to Maroon and Backes, both of whom detracted from there club success until playoffs. Yes they have a place now but you have to get there first.