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UnrealDeal14

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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 20, 2021 at 6:18 p.m.
Thread: Scary Good
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Do you have proof of that though? Even McDavid is considered to have signed at a discount.


Here’s an interesting look at UFA targets &amp; their boxcars for each of their last 82 regular season games:

Landeskog: 31-48-79
Nugent-Hopkins: 31-45-76
Hyman: 31-33-64
Tatar: 19-42-61
Hall: 18-38-56
Saad: 30-15-45
Coleman: 23-20-43


There's no pressure on the rookies - I have veteran players in the top-4. Besides, the org clearly likes Broberg, I have Russell as 7th man and Lagesson, Berglund and Kemp in the minors, so I don't think it's accurate to say that there's little backup. There's more backup than many teams have.

They do just need 1 (top-6) winger now that they've got Nugent-Hopkins signed.

x - McDavid - Puljujarvi
Nuge - Draisaitl - Yamamoto

The bottom-6 has holes but those will be cheaper to fill.</div></div>

I'm not sure what else can prove it. Argue semantics on whether McJesus is worth the max salary allowable 12.5 is no hometown discount. Like I said they are few and far between now. Crosby, Tampa guys, and Theodore took discounts for their teams.

Ceci shouldn't be playing top 4 minutes. Bear needs to rebound after a poor year, they played russell ahead of him in the playoffs. Kieth needs a bounce back in a new role. Russell Lagesson are depth the other guys are not able to play reliable NHL minutes yet.

To each their own. I'd just use the 5.5 from saad or 7.5 to have a reliable top 4 man and some bottom 6 depth.

Not sure what the boxcars are but the last two seasons Landeskog is P/G is .89 and Nuge is .82. I would argue Landeskog is better in every aspect of the game with the lone exception being Nuge is on the PK.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 20, 2021 at 3:37 p.m.
Thread: Scary Good
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>What proof do you have of this?


Really? Nuge, Tavares, Spezza, etc - there are lots of players taking discounts to play on Canadian teams.


Maybe Klefbom is doing the Kucherov thing this year... :p

I think this defense is underrated. Samorukov was a fantastic shutdown guy in the KHL last year and could be up for 2nd pairing comp by January, while Bouchard (small sample size) looks like an elite offense creator so far: he was top-20 in P/60 (minimum 150 minutes) and #1 in shots/60 in the league.</div></div>

- The no discounts would be the proof.

- Nuge at 5.125 through his age 35 season is no discount. He got years extra for a lower cap hit. Spezza is a vet chasing a cup not a free agent in his prime; its 750k or retirement. Maybe you can convince me of Tavares because of what SJ reportedly offered. But I have to really squint to see the 5th highest payed player by cap hit (40m cash in 3 years) as a discount.

- That would be quite the curveball :tearsofjoy. I agree I think they have a future but that's a lot of pressure on rookies to be great with very little backup options. Personally I think they decided they just needed 1 winger by doing the Keith trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 20, 2021 at 2:03 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 19, 2021 at 2:46 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 10, 2021 at 1:37 a.m.
Thread: 2022 Improvement through FA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GrinReaper</b></div><div>Still need another top 6 LW as Kahun was a bust in the top 6 this yr
To much for Yamamoto he’ll get the same bridge deal as Bear did 2X2 if the number is closer to 3 mil then it’s a 3 yr deal or longer
McLeod will be staying at centre most likely as the 4th line centre to start the yr
I see Smith getting the same 1 yr deal as last yr 1.5 with 1 mil in performance bonuses
I think Holland brings back Haas over signing Filppula</div></div>

Can agree with most of those. Only one might be Yamamoto. Maybe he signs for less with better negotiating but his closest comparables are Lindblom and Kase who are at 3.0 and 2.6.
Isn't a great market for 1 year reclamations so I just went with Kahun. I would target Coleman if he would come to Edm but he reeks overpayment from someone
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 29, 2019 at 6:45 p.m.
Thread: Point bridge Karlsson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BOLTLOVER1</b></div><div>Amazing all the tax experts on here . Did not think Starbucks was that complicated. Couple points:
1. Tampa has same "home advantage" as Panthers Nashville and Vegas and soon to be Seattle.
2. It is only for home games .. road games you play tax in that state. Also visiting teams in Tampa etc.. dont pay taxes playing here.
3. Not sure all players declare their home arena as full time residence.
4. As for culture.. Europeans like "big cities" .. particuialry the Russians .. big advantage NY LA and Miami .. Tampa kind of a boring place comparably

So when. I hear all the tax and lifestyle crap .. it better than Buffalo but it ain't that big.</div></div>

Good points:
1. Are any of those teams able to sign Point to an offer sheet? Any of those teams have similar discount contracts?
2. Correct, yet still they get 50% of their games with no state tax. Hence tax savings
3. What kind of an agent would not have a player declare his home residence in the location most beneficial to his client?
4. Yet somehow Kuch and Vasy are happy there and Kovalchuk isn't. Winning have anything to do with it?
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 29, 2019 at 6:35 p.m.
Thread: Fast 3rd line
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>Loui Eriksson's regression due to his age is likely already started and unlikely to regress to anything close to his career highs, whereas there is room to argue that a change in scenery for Lucic could result in a year or two of increased production. The narrative of "big hockey" has legs again, as two teams with reputations that lend themselves towards physicality find themselves duking it out for ultimate glory. If the Canucks are looking to contend before Hughes and Pettersson price themselves to massive contracts, is that element of physicality and energy not desirable? Despite Eriksson's deployment, he is fighting a losing battle in terms of goal shares per 60. Every 60 minutes of hockey that features Eriksson on the ice results in the Canucks allowing 0.5 more goals per hour. Lucic has a positive differential of 0.2 goals per 60 in this category, and spent a lot of time away from McDavid this season and near 50-50 usage between zones. Using Eriksson's TOI, that results in 13 fewer goals against over the course of the season for the Canucks. How many one-goal games does that push into overtime? How many overtimes do the Canucks come away with the extra point with 13 fewer goals against? If those 13 goals correlate to 13 more points in the standings, the Canucks would have made the playoffs.

It will cost either team substantially more to dump either Eriksson or Lucic on Seattle. Vegas got the Clarkson contract - with no cap implications - and it still cost a king's ransom. I expect the price to come down a bit, as GMs won't be in such a panic to lose an asset, but the cost will be far greater than a prospect and a 3rd Round pick.

Pysyk's issue in Florida isn't his value. Tallon does not like him. It's up to Quenneville to form a new relationship with the player, but there is existing bad blood. Russell, despite all his flaws, plays a style that Tallon appreciates, and is comfortable on his off-side. There isn't a large market for defencemen this season: if Florida is looking to move Pysyk, replace him with an NHL option, and afford to go all-in on the 2 big Russians this summer, Russell is a fit. Not a sexy one, but the math checks out. If Reimer is at risk of being a dead asset at any point remaining in the final two years of his deal, how is a half-million retained enough to make the value fair? Florida isn't losing a 2nd Round Pick for nothing here: there is a later pick and a prospect coming back, and they're freeing up money for now. Teams don't take cap dumps for free, especially those unlikely to finish their contracts.

I have zero interest in spending 4 assets to acquire a year of Eakin from a team with less than no cap space. Again, Edmonton is in a position where retaining as many picks and prospects as possible is pivotal to sustained success. Unless the trade can be worked out as Benning and a low pick for Eakin, there isn't interest.</div></div>

As you pointed out Lucic spends time with McDavid and any time with McJesus exponentially boosts your stats. Yes he didn't play much this year with him but I'm gathering your on 2-3 year windows because Lucic got buried this year by Hitchcock and he was more 45-55 zone starts. Eriksson's best linemates were the Sedins a year out of retirement, not the best.

In no way am I saying Eriksson is good. I would not touch him but I do think he is better than Lucic and that could be an endless debate.

I like Pysyk - Russell for the Oilers but I think Tallon is above selling him for cheap because he "doesn't like him". Reimer had a bad year and is slightly overpaid but he is a league average goalie over his career. Injury history is concerning hence why I would target a cheaper guy in FA because I don't think Fla pays a 2nd to dump him when a year of Lucic only costs a 3rd.

I think Benning and a 3rd is possible and I would do that but that's me.

As for "heavy hockey", the common thread both teams have is speed and size. Lucic is not fast, he is closer to Maroon and Backes, both of whom detracted from there club success until playoffs. Yes they have a place now but you have to get there first.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 29, 2019 at 4:28 p.m.
Thread: Fast 3rd line
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>Any Lucic-to-Vancouver trade is hard to gauge, but I do not agree with a blatant overpay to make it happen.
- Eriksson has bagged the coaching staff and his usage in recent history. Hasn't directly asked to be traded, but he's damn close to that point
- Vancouver and Edmonton have previously had talks about a Lucic trade, but Edmonton's ask was too high
- The cap balances, but the term does not. However, it's a matter of an extra year, and if Lucic waives his NMC to go to Vancouver, he will not need to be protected during expansion
- Lucic is 3 years younger and has outproduced Eriksson since both signed their massive extensions
- There is an appeal to a percentage of the Vancouver fanbase to replace Eriksson with the physicality of a hometown boy
- Vancouver brings back more value in this trade than a straight one-for-one would achieve

If Edmonton is moving Lucic with something along the lines of a mid-first, prospect and a second, or something of decent value, it would mean that Edmonton is eating a lot less salary coming back than in this case. That scenario represents Edmonton purging that money from their books and starting over, this setup doesn't. I think the 3rd Round pick is ultimately too generous as Safin might get healthy and start producing at the AHL level, but it sweetens the deal for Benning and the Canucks management enough to the point where I don't know how they refuse. What nixes this deal is Eriksson refusing to come to Edmonton (I wouldn't blame him) should he opt to not waive his NTC.

Florida makes that move due to the relationship they have with Pysyk, to dump Reimer, and make big pitches to both Panarin and Bobrovsky this summer. It frees up $3.1M for them this summer while keeping their cap situation relatively the same going into 20-21. The 2nd is payment for taking Reimer, as the Pysyk-Russel swap is already relatively even. Hawkey is thrown in for free as Florida badly needs prospects in every position and Edmonton is unlikely to sign him. Reimer's statline doesn't paint a clear picture of what he is, and his concussion history makes his remaining term incredibly risky for any team to bank on.

Depending on the cost to acquire Eakin, the Oilers should be interested in his services. He's likely a better option than Gagner on PP2, and it would allow Edmonton to run McDavid and Draisaitl together, but Edmonton is in a position where it needs to retain as many of its picks and prospects as possible. Because of Vegas' need to shed salary this summer, I can't see a deal that revolves around Benning and spare parts being enough to make it happen: there will be better deals for the Golden Knights.</div></div>

Unfortunately age has been no benefit to Lucic and he was better 3 years ago but not today. I would argue Eriksson has more upside because he is at least responsible defensively and has a proven PK pedigree. Any hometown bonus will quickly evaporate just like how the fans have turned in Edmonton. That extra year is right as Vancouver is contending and having to start paying young players. If they are going to pay Seattle to take Lucic they might as well just do that with Eriksson now.

Safin and a 30% chance at an NHLer is below what the Canucks would have to pay Seattle to take the contract.

Even at equal salaries Pysyk has more value because of his position. As well Pysyk has had consistently better shot and giveaway differentials playing similar minutes. If he is a free agent this year why would Florida just not wait. Pysyk and a slightly retained (500,000) Reimer for Russell would be closer to fair value.

I think using some combination of Safin, a 3rd, Hawkey, and a 5th or similar assets would be enough to get Eakin.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 24, 2019 at 3:02 p.m.
Thread: Best Contracts To Take On
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>newballcoach</b></div><div>Toronto isn't trading Horton, as he just sits on LTIR and doesn't hurt their cap space.

After July 1st Zaitsev is owed less than 20 million real dollars for the next 5 years. And if you buy him out in 2022 (when you are assuming to be competitive) it's not too big of a hit. If the hope is to just hit the floor, competitive team be damned, he's a guy that helps. Now I would assume Ottawa would want a lot for helping Toronto to get out of that deal. Is it worth Kapanen, probably not, but potentially a young AHL guy right now and/or a draft pick is the right price to pay.

Toronto could even take the Gaborik and McArthur contracts back in kind. To hit the floor, Ottawa needs them to stay on the active roster. But if they are on the active roster, insurance does not pay the 80% of their contract cost, so they're expensive to Melnyk. There's about 11 mil owed to the two of them for the next 2 years, so the actual financial savings over that time is pretty close. I could see Ottawa doing some math and trying to figure out if it's worth it for them.

Plus, Ottawa just hired the Leafs assistant who played Zaitsev a ton of the penalty kill, so he'd be fine abusing Z's icetime while he shelters prospects and players in the organizations longterm future.</div></div>

I would argue Horton's contract will become an issue if Toronto has issues signing players RFA's before they make trades. (Ex trying to sign Kapanen before they can trade Nylander or whoever) Horton's money will restrict how much TO can spend before they trade someone. If they don't have the room to sign Johnsson, Kapanen, or Marner before they trade someone they are really putting themselves in a bind when this is a relatively cheap way to avoid that situation.

I do agree Zaitsev may interest the sens because of Smith but with that many years left how good of a prospect/pick do you feel is acceptable to add in? Then who are your 3 D on the right side?
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 17, 2019 at 3:17 p.m.
Thread: Karlsson Add is Possible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>Cozens isnt on the radar. Turcotte Dach Byram and wild card Pod

Avs have a bigger Russian factor than the Lighting. Look at their roster and draft picks over the past 3-4 years. Avs are very very comfortable with Russians and one of the outside reasons w hy its rumoured Panarin is interested at the Avs as a signing destination

Karlsson said that from the start, he wanted to be paid market value in his next contract, he is done taking home town discounts. And as a future Hall of Fame with his last change to cash in, he's not leaving multi millions on the table</div></div>

Ok but my point was there depth at Center after the draft. Turcotte and Dach are Centers. Podkolzin will likely fall past being a minimum of 2 years away. Russian factor as it pertains to impact players. There are 3 NHLers including Kamenev and Varlamov is not coming back is he? I think it would shock everyone if Panarin went to Colorado.

If highest cap hit for ego is his motivator he will go somewhere else yes. Tough to say he is getting more than the 80 mill. That's 11.5 (cap hit not cash) over 7 years.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zwui21</b></div><div>- Overpay for Callahan's contract. One single 2nd rounder will be more than enough.

- Why would the Bolts want Anisimov? Waste of cap space, he's not a good player.

- Re-signing Stralman would be a massive error, even more if the salary is <strong>3M for 3 years!!</strong>. The guy is done, let's move on.

- If Tampa would really consider signing Erik Karlsson, we'd have to get rid of 2 of Killorn, Palat and Johnson + Miller or Gourde (possibly Miller, as Gourde has a NTC kicking in July 1)</div></div>

That's not a small cap hit to get someone to eat even for 1 year. If it's less that's great but with the jam they are in I would pay two late 2nd's to get out of it. He played solid shutdown minutes again and was a top PKer on a great PK so done is incorrect. He is injury prone but 3M is a discount on what he will get paid this year so hence the extra year but yes it may be undoable if Karlsson signs. The 2nd year they will have to dump a 3rd guy for sure but change seems inevitable after this year. This would be the ultimate shake up.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 17, 2019 at 1:19 p.m.
Thread: Karlsson Add is Possible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>Avs are not taking Cozens. He was very good in his stint before he was injured. So I don't think you follow the Avs at all to make those sort of statements.
Karlsson left Ottawa bc he wanted fair market value. He's not taking sub 9m when he was offered 8x10m in Ottawa. Be realistic</div></div>

Who would be preferred at #4 (Cozens, Turcotte, ?), is a #2 C or wing not a bigger need than D if Byram falls to 4?

Granted I don't watch every Avs game, but I'm not sure what metric or eyeball test made him very good. Again I reiterate if the Avs have a sentiment towards him another bottom 6 ELC could be substituted. Only picked him for the Russian factor with Tampa.

I think it's well known Karl left Ottawa for other reasons than money. Melnyk refusing to spend to be competitive and how the organization handled the Hoffman issue are front and center. This Tampa idea only works if he wants to be in Tampa and money is secondary. I'm sure someone would give him 11 but even then as I pointed out the actual earnings are not that different.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 17, 2019 at 11:49 a.m.
Thread: Karlsson Add is Possible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Spanky227</b></div><div>you are pretty low on some of your salaries here.. and absolutely screwed next year as you have a ton of expiring RFAs you'll want to resign (Sergachev, Cernak, Vasilevskiy, Cirelli, Joseph, etc) and no notable salaries going off the books.</div></div>

See below for salaries, and yes next year is just another year of massaging the cap. Killer and possibly Miller need to go, or Stralman resigning may need to be changed. Main parts can stay though.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>I dont think avs are going to be giving up a good young C and a 2nd for a guy who is still good but Tampa desperately needs to shed Cap....I believe you would have to od that the other way around.

and you are low on the Karlsson. Min is 9.5m. He wont take anything less than 9 regardless fo the state</div></div>

Personally I didn't think Kamenev was above replacement, as he didn't show much in his 30ish games. Could switch with another young bottom 6 but I didn't see much room for him with Mac. Jost, and likely Cozens. And like I said Karlsson would have to take a small hit. If you actually look at salaries Mcdonagh is making 8,400,000 and P Kane at 9,800,000. They're actual take home cash is only 400,000 apart. More of a ego sacrifice on the cap number not his pockets.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hockeyfanatic05</b></div><div>TB has no need for Karlsson and shouldn't sign him. If TB needs a RD, sign a more affordable role guy who does his job and thats all. No need to go out and try and get the best player for every position, because that will never work</div></div>

Perfect debate, does Tampa actually need him.... Probably not, but the Leafs didn't really need Tavares either and they may be interested in shaking it up amidst some let downs. Tough to turn a superstar away if he wants to play for you.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KoneDome</b></div><div>As a leafs fan, I hope you sign Karlsson for 7 years, because I think he is about to take a dive, if it hasnt already started....
And what incentive does Point have to take a short term deal where he has clearly proven he is deserving of an 8 year deal at an AAV that probably starts with a 10...</div></div>

He may because of injuries and age but he is right in their core age group. Risk/reward. And Tampa has a very long history of young star's taking bridge deals and then taking care of them next time. It would start with a 10 in Toronto or most other markets, but Tampa has established a culture of this team first mentality. Maybe he goes against the grain but all their best players have followed that mantra.