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BeterChiarelli
Ban Price trades
Member Since
Oct. 29, 2017
Favourite Team
Edmonton Oilers
Forum Posts
5284
Posts per Day
3.2
POSTS
THREADS
LIKES
ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
2 hours ago
Thread:
What is the price of Jordan Eberle
Ryan Strome
Forum:
NHL
Thu. at 12:04 a.m.
Thread:
2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>He's awake!</div></div>
Begrudgingly. I have to be up in about 5 hours for work lol
Forum:
NHL
Thu. at 12:03 a.m.
Thread:
2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
Missed everything up to 6-4. Lordy this one's a game.
Forum:
NHL
Wed. at 11:04 p.m.
Thread:
2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
On the plus side I'm not going to have to be up until some ungodly hour of the night. Alas.
Reset for game 2. GOilers.
Forum:
NHL
Wed. at 9:55 p.m.
Thread:
2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
Pain
Forum:
NHL
Wed. at 10:12 a.m.
Thread:
2021-22 NHL Off-season Discussion Thread - #1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Tintin</b></div><div>It might make sense to consider to quickly rebuild / retool now.
Bergeron leaves, can make a killing from trading Pasta and possibly Marchand.
McAvoy and Swayman are still gonna be elite in two years.
On the other hand, they just signed Lindholm to that extension.
Would also be very harsh on Taylor Hall having him tied to yet another middling team.</div></div>
Marchand yes, Pastrnak no:
You cannot find value in a trade involving Pastrnak that returns the kind of value that builds into a McAvoy/Swayman core because he IS that kind of piece. Any player returned that happens to be a few years younger is most likely a lesser piece. They have a few interesting options on the wing as it is and the Bruins really only lack two top-six pivots to become a truly contending team again. You could easily fetch one of those in a Marchand deal and they could just as easily sign Kadri to bridge the gap while a prospect taken in the 2022-23 draft percolates.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Mon. at 2:44 p.m.
Thread:
Minnesota Wild signed Jesper Wallstedt (3 Years / $1,350,000 AAV)
Hello darkness my old friend
Forum:
NHL
Mon. at 9:37 a.m.
Thread:
2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
Colorado in 6
Edmonton in 6
Florida in 7
Carolina in 5
No logic. No reason. No stats. Nothing but the heat of passion here.
Forum:
NHL
Sun. at 2:09 p.m.
Thread:
2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: Sidney Crosby, game-time decision, was not diagnosed with a concussion.There was some initial concern, with a headache after Game 5, that might be the case. He was tested, negative result. Nothing further developed and belief is he’s remained symptom-free since.</p>— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) <a href="https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1525897255642857473?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">May 15, 2022</a></blockquote>
Playoff hockey baby. Sid (and the pens) risking his career</div></div>
At this point they're risking his life.
Crosby can't do much else in his career to establish himself as one of the top-5 or top-10 players of all time. The numbers don't even really matter anymore. His career could have ended after that hit and the only people to really lose out would have been the fans. We've been robbed of so much of his talent already but he's accomplished everything ever asked of him.
Forum:
NHL
Sun. at 12:48 a.m.
Thread:
2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
It feels so, so, so good to be the team that puts the final nail in Dustin Brown's career. What a dirtbag he was.
LETS GO OILERS!
Forum:
NHL
Sat. at 10:59 p.m.
Thread:
2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>He explained where this is based on in that tweet.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">(Probability based on Dom's playoff probability simulations from each of the past five playoff series. Series in different years treated as independent events, which might be a little iffy but not too egregious</p>— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1525655854581702656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">May 15, 2022</a></blockquote>
</div></div>
So then the math would be:
A^z × B^y × C^x × D^w × E^v = 1/27,778, where:
A is the odds from the series in year 1
B is the odds from the series in year 2
C is the odds from the series in year 3
D is the odds from the series in year 4
E is the odds from the series in year 5
z is the number of games that could clinch in year 1
y is the number of games that could clinch in year 2
x is the number of games that could clinch in year 3
w is the number of games that could clinch in year 4
v is the number of games that could clinch in year 5
Forum:
NHL
Sat. at 10:49 p.m.
Thread:
2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Sorry, I'm gonna need to see the math on that one.</div></div>
The approach I took was to take the base-two logarithm of 27,778: there are two outcomes of an NHL playoff game so if the two teams are evenly matched you could expect any game to be a 50-50. Thus (1/2)^x should equal that 1/27,778 figure of JFresh's, with x being the number of instances the Leafs have been in that situation for either team to clinch.
The result I got was around 14.76. I don't know the specifics of the Leafs' series but I know that x cannot be greater than 20 in this instance as there are only 4 possible games that can clinch a series (I believe the max for this number is actually 16 as I don't recall the Leafs or their opponents being up 3-0 in the series).
This leads me to suspect that JFresh is using odds from his model and that the distribution of who wins the game isn't 50-50.
Forum:
NHL
Sat. at 10:42 p.m.
Thread:
2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>the oilers do not need to trade for a defenseman</div></div>
They could use a more stable RHD over Barrie but that's about it. Not the kind of player I'd eagerly flip JP for.
Forum:
NHL
May 14 at 5:55 a.m.
Thread:
2021-22 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #2 - Free Connor Ingram
<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/583180">New thread </a>
Forum:
NHL
May 14 at 5:50 a.m.
Thread:
2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
The one where demons are exercised or memes live on. Have at.
Forum:
NHL
May 13 at 8:15 p.m.
Thread:
2021-22 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #2 - Free Connor Ingram
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>beterchiarelli new thread?</div></div>
In the morning. Let 'er buck for tonight
Forum:
NHL
May 12 at 11:56 p.m.
Thread:
2021-22 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #2 - Free Connor Ingram
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CoopsTroops</b></div><div>Is this betting advice? And will you cover my losses if they get shutout?</div></div>
I mean he opens the scoring. When I'm right I'm right.
Unless you're down to get paid in nice looming rocks, I assume no liabilities.
Forum:
NHL
May 12 at 10:19 a.m.
Thread:
2021-22 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #2 - Free Connor Ingram
Today feels like a good day to hammer the over on McDavid.
I'm not confident that the Oilers win but I'm sure that the best player in the game shows up tonight.
Forum:
NHL
May 10 at 2:49 a.m.
Thread:
2021-22 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #2 - Free Connor Ingram
Nothing better than being off-your-rocker drunk on the Red Mile being the only guy in a Stars jersey. Absolutely love playing the heel. What a city.
Go Oilers
Forum:
NHL
May 9 at 11:33 p.m.
Thread:
2021-22 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #2 - Free Connor Ingram
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Flames having almost 40 shots in two periods but only one goal.
Otter supremacy.</div></div>
I'm in enemy territory - actually bought a Seguin jersey ahead of game one - this game has been nuts. I'd like to see the Stars make some crisper passes, quit over-passing when they're in the Flames' zone and put Calvary on the brink.
I know I had the Flames getting the sweep but it's win-win for me if the fLames get eliminated.
Forum:
NHL
May 9 at 1:47 p.m.
Thread:
2021-22 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #2 - Free Connor Ingram
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yikes</b></div><div>CSICK
LFG, TROTZ CANNED AND PIERRE.
Today is a good day for the loser teams</div></div>
Then post this in the loser teams thread ffs
Forum:
NHL
May 9 at 1:24 p.m.
Thread:
2021-22 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #2 - Free Connor Ingram
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Introducing … Team Canada! 🇨🇦2️⃣4️⃣ players will wear the 🍁 at the 2022 IIHF World Championship in Tampere and Helsinki, Finland.ROSTER ➡️ <a href="https://t.co/HtfCt890zU" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://t.co/HtfCt890zU</a>NEWS RELEASE ➡️ <a href="https://t.co/gCjdgMd9xP" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://t.co/gCjdgMd9xP</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/IIHFWorlds?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">#IIHFWorlds</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/IIHFHockey?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">@iihfhockey</a> <a href="https://t.co/3dQvhfusAE" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/3dQvhfusAE</a></p>— Hockey Canada (@HockeyCanada) <a href="https://twitter.com/HockeyCanada/status/1523710248627884040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">May 9, 2022</a></blockquote>
This team is going to kick ass</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>3 Devils. Nice. That's a young forward group right there.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Yup very good team.
Dubois-Barzal-Batherson
Johnson-Cozens-Anderson
Sillinger-Mercer-Roy
Comtois-Lowry-Geekie
Chabot-Severson
Sanheim-Whitecloud
Graves-Mayo</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Watch them lose to Finland in the finals with our top player being Joel Armia or some sh*t.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>I'm game. Then trade Armia for 3 1sts</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>SJ re-sign Barabanov, 2 x 2,5</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="und" dir="ltr">2x$2.5M <a href="https://t.co/8291RlQjVO" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://t.co/8291RlQjVO</a></p>— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) <a href="https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1523714329354285056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">May 9, 2022</a></blockquote>
</div></div>
Offseason discussion thread is <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/580586">this way</a>. Thanks.
Forum:
NHL
May 9 at 12:12 a.m.
Thread:
2021-22 NHL Off-season Discussion Thread - #1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DucharmetheDOMinator</b></div><div>Not bad</div></div>
Couldn't fit Allen in for a 4th, maybe next time.
Admittedly, high praise seeing we don't always see eye to eye. The blueline is flawed for sure but everything else is the gold standard across the league.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 8 at 3:19 p.m.
Thread:
Finally Contenders
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TZ11</b></div><div>I doubt Rohrer is available at 128 but if he is, the Oilers should definitely pick him.
Kuzmenko could work out really well... or really bad.
I like the Kuemper singing, could be really good for both sides.</div></div>
Savoie, Tullio, and Petrov were supposed to be gone by the 3rd round. Anything possible!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 8 at 3:18 p.m.
Thread:
Finally Contenders
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>capsfan2121</b></div><div>Do you think if Keith retires which isn’t most likely happening but if it does would you keep Kulak and resign him. Also this is a scary team with great depth. Right side of the d is questionable tho with ceci but hé hé performs well than it’s solid</div></div>
Unless Edmonton wins the cup this spring, they'll be riding the Keith deal out in its entirety. I'd absolutely love to bring Kulak back, there's just too much dead money on this roster. I could maybe justify flipping Foegele to resign Brett and just bringing in a rigamarole fourth line winger but Foegele offers superior forward depth.
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