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BeterChiarelli

Hey Beter
Member Since
Oct 29, 2017
Favourite Team
Edmonton Oilers
Birthday
Oct 9, 1995
Forum Posts
4295
Posts per Day
2.94
Forum Threads
490
Forum: NHLThu at 8:01 pm
Thread: 2021/22 NHL Season Discussion thread #2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>So Lambert who most people had as the #2 OA pick for the 2022 Draft is potentially gonna leave Liiga and go to the WHL

Honestly, he should go for it as like Raty if he continues to play in Liiga his value could drop fast as rn 10 gp 1 goal and 1 assist and a -2 aint good for his development or confidence and could result in him dropping down.

Got a feeling playing amongst peers his age will greatly increase his value towards the draft and solidify his #2 position.</div></div>

I fully believe that too many kids are trying to play a league or so higher than they should be - specifically some of the European kids - for the exposure and I completely agree that it's arguably one of the worst things they could be doing for their development. Be it their parents, agents, or their own foolishness, they saw Matthews take it to the NLA and have the same illusions of grandeur as top-rated prospects of their draft class without recognizing the canyon between their talents (and size to an extent) with Auston's. Raty struggled with this, Lundell did up until last season, and I'd be unsurprised if a lot of prospects coming out of the KHL would have fared better in their draft years if they got the ice time to play alongside their peers as opposed to 6 minutes per night against men.

To Lambert's credit, I don't think he should have been in the U20 Sarja last season: he was among the top of the crop in his Draft-2 season and some form of progression should have been expected. Using NHLe as a very rough tool for estimating league strengths, I don't think the WHL is a terribly appropriate place for Lambert to ship off to: it's only about a 33% increase in league strength from the SM U20 league and Lambert has squared off against men for over a season now. I would personally think the Slovakian league or the Allsvenskan would be a more developmentally-appropriate place for someone of Lambert's skill: they factor in as middle grounds between the SM-Liiga and U20 Sarja and would still keep him relatively close to home.

I'd expect Lambert to probably post some ridiculous number above 2 points per game in the WHL and I'd take pause with that as a scout: unless you're seeing strides in his conditioning, maturity, and other intangibles, it really just looks like stat padding for draft position and he may require an extra season or two of development before being NHL ready. I'd have a hard time passing up McGroarty or Savoie if I'm in desperate need of the high-end skill sooner rather than later.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BuFfaLOFaN</b></div><div>So just saw the athletic redrafting 2018... I still have Dahlin #1, not sure what they have if someone knows pls lmk, also what's ur lists?</div></div>

I hate redrafts that happen within 5 years of the actual draft, especially their 2019 and 2020 ones, and even more so in the context of Dom's model. There's been hardly enough time to justify any form of hindsight and a lack of data to substantiate any of their claims. If their draft models were actually good, teams would abide by them.

I get that it's for fun and for clicks, but wow do I really not like such empty-calorie articles.
Forum: NHLThu at 3:49 pm
Thread: 2021/22 NHL Season Discussion thread #2
A handful of days back I proposed Vegas should sell on McNabb and Smith given the step back Vegas is going to be forced into taking with the injuries to Pacioretty and Stone. I think for a team damned to try and win it all every year has to look at this potential down year as a chance to recoup some assets or acquire assets in order to bring in someone like Eichel. I still stand by this but I want to propose throwing another Brand Name team into the retool bin for the season:

The Pittsburgh Penguins.

While I understand that in the twilight of the Crosby-Malkin era that the Penguins should be trying their best to win annually, I can't help but look at their depleted roster and wonder if the absences to their key pieces are giving their depth pieces more of a highlight and bumping up their value. Carter was a dead man walking before departing the Kings and I truly believe his is a name that could fetch a handsome return on the trade market. Letang instantly becomes one of the best defencemen available at the deadline if the Penguins commit; he can always re-sign next offseason, is there more value in getting futures for him than the sentiment of Letang having been a forever-Penguin?

The 2022 and 2023 drafts are some of the more prolific drafts since the monster 2015 draft and I can't help but think if the Penguins can find three, four, or five really good pieces from those classes that they won't have to endure a long rebuild. I can't help but look at Carter, Letang, Rust - possibly even Malkin - and wonder if they couldn't turn 5 quality pieces just from those men before having Kris and Geno head back to Yinzerville for another run or two.
Forum: NHLThu at 3:31 pm
Thread: What’s your teams biggest what if?
What if Roloson had stayed healthy?
What if Chris kept it in his pants so he and Lauren could have had a healthy relationship?
What if they didn't have to trade Smyth over hundreds of thousands of dollars?
What if they had drafted better in 2007?

Would we have still had the decade of darkness?

What could have been if Katz hadn't gotten in the way of the 2013 draft and they selected Murray?
What if they kept Nugent-Hopkins and Schultz down an extra season? Or insulated them properly?
What would they look like if they hadn't have traded any of their 2015 picks?

Could they have been more competitive already?

What happens if Tippett is extended?
What happens to the long-term sustainability of this team if Holland's moves this summer <em>work</em>?
What if Wallstedt truly becomes a top-tier goaltender?

Why does this team hate me? Should I hate it?
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 2:34 pm
Thread: Make the moves early
Broke the reply into two parts because Radu brought up some points that I wanted to stand out more.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Radu47</b></div><div>I like the methodology but the returns trouble me

If Gavrikov was RFA ending then maybe a 1st

But why not use the 1st to package for a top D

Suggesting Gavrikov &gt; Barrie is really bizarre

Especially given the use of analytical models here</div></div>

The list of "top d" that can be had this deadline is currently a name and a half long with Ekholm having just extended and next year's crop isn't much better either as I suspect names like Orlov and Sergachev aren't going to be moving in the near future. Thus it became a matter of just acquiring a solid defender - recognize that Keith probably isn't retiring next year and Samorukov needs to be NHL bound next season - with term in order to both improve the roster and justify the cost. I don't think Leddy or Giordano are names that any team should be looking to send a first for. There's a current market scarcity in quality defenders, results of the best men having already signed to max-term deals.

Gavrikov plays a lot like a left-handed Larsson and it's no secret that such a skillset is something this team needs. The price is a bit high but I find it more constructive to suss out value from other teams by exceeding that initial expectation. The only reason I have him (and Pysyk) over Barrie is based on the math that JFresh's model does to calculate WAR. Reality is Tippett would never split Keith-Ceci and the Oilers would run a Gavrikov-Barrie pairing. Barrie's skillset doesn't lend to playoff hockey in the slightest and I've been less than impressed with his results dating back to last season.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Radu47</b></div><div>Barrie is the 29th highest scoring D in NHL history (ahead of Gonchar, Rafalski, etc.) how on earth could he possibly warrant being scratched on this D core

Only 1/2 of his career beside elite forwards

Many of the 28 ahead of him had that throughout</div></div>

Because Barrie <em>cannot</em> play defense: with penalty rates evaporating over the course of the postseason, those scoring rates drop substantially.

The Oilers do not have the proper roster construction in order to gain positive value out of Barrie beyond the regular season: if Keith could have been replaced by a genuinely defensively-capable partner then having Barrie on the playoff roster makes sense. Managing shots against becomes exponentially more important in the playoffs given the smaller sample size the games leave you to work with: you can't rely on shot metrics from the regular season to always translate into those isolated seven-game series. The only thing you can truly control in that moment is by minimizing the CF% of the team you're matched up against.

I like the idea of a Samorukov-Barrie pairing next season and oh how wonderfully a Klefbom-Barrie pairing could have been: such pairings should be able to manipulate CF% in the manner you'd expect offensively-natured defenders to do so (overwhelmingly in their favour) because of how the two pieces mesh together. We don't have one of those on this roster (maybe he works with Gavrikov, Jack's math suggested otherwise). This is why you saw me ask Avalanche and Leafs fans only days ago if he'd work as a forward: there isn't a good spot on that blueline for him until we can get Keith off the roster. Otherwise the old man is playing too high up the depth chart or the bottom pair is at substantial risk of being exposed.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Radu47</b></div><div>The only possible way to sell high on a floundering player is if you somehow knew their career was entirely downhill from here on... so... 🤨

Obv not the case here ​so it's perplexing to see that

Also with Strome floundering in ways too (neither are really but anyhow) and he and Yams having almost the exact same career points per game so far...

Why do the Oilers add a quality prospect there

Benson is an elite AHL scorer and still has potential, with Yams more cost controlled too it's very arguable he's the better asset for CHI trying* to contend

*emphasis on trying

Lol stan bowman</div></div>

I'm suspect of Kailer's ceiling and I believe that he's probably peaking as a decent third-line option. Less DeBrincat more Gerbe? The Hyman acquisition and lack of any effective long-term spot for Kassian (early results promising however) leave me looking at Yamamoto as a piece that if Tippett isn't going to support with proper roster utilization, should be moved on from. Bourgault is pushing very hard from the QMJHL (I'm starting to think his AHL audition will run short: games this summer, maybe to start next season) and Lavoie could still emerge as an NHL option as early as the New Year.

Given the Oilers cap situation next year - ignoring for a second I used him to acquire a more expensive player - I don't think Yamamoto is long for this roster. My gut feeling from how his negotiations went this summer to how Tippett has been benching him or failing to adapt the roster to get the most value out of Kailer lads me to think that Holland will trade him for a roster piece of need. I'm uncertain as to where however, as it's contingent on when the trade happens and how other pieces of the roster manage the rest of the year. If Skinner falters and the Oilers actually aren't rumoured to have a Khudobin trade set, then I can see a real deal for Driedger (auxiliary pieces may vary). If Keith really struggles this year or gets into injury trouble, then I would be wholly unsurprised to see Yamamoto traded as part of a package for a quality LHD. If the trade happens before or on the deadline, then I think something in this neighbourhood to give Edmonton overwhelming forward depth is likely.

I don't think Benson should qualify as a prosect anymore. A fair shake would be to see what he does on the current roster but I think it's a moot point at this point. I have him with the likes of Ho-Sang or Jeremu Bracco. Greatness at the AHL level isn't always going to translate, and it's yet to do so for Tyler. I think he has more value as a trade piece than a roster player the organizatio has to jump through hoops with in order to avoid losing him to waivers.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 2:34 pm
Thread: Make the moves early
Thanks for the feedback boys!

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FilthyMitts05</b></div><div>As an oilers fan I would do that kessel trade but then keep him not trade</div></div>

The machinations of CapFriendly make it difficult to see, but it's a three-way deal: Kessel for two seconds is probably fair value, I don't think Edmonton (or any team) is getting Phil for anything less than that. I'd like Kessel too but I think Khudobin might be the greater priority until Koskinen can demonstrate otherwise.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>O_O

Let me try this another way. One cannot sell high if nobody will pay high. Nobody is paying high for Yamamoto these days. Obviously.</div></div>

There was a quote here before Yamamoto extended re: the Flames possibly offersheeting Kailer. He wasn't worth paying $4M but his value was clearly north of a second round pick. That's still where I see his value. He just hasn't clicked beyond one hot streak; he's still a young player and a change of scenery could show that he's more than just a third-liner. I think most of that sentiment could be shared with Strome's namesake.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_Habs_fan</b></div><div>I'm not sure Gavrikov is worth that much, but Jarmo has been good at selling high on guys</div></div>

Aim high lest I get a wave of Jackets fans angry that I bought too low on their suddenly-favourite player. I reckon the first is an absolute given the term and the quality of the player but I suspect Kemp is excessive.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LGuy54</b></div><div>He's probably not, but think of it this way

Savard and Foligno got a 1st
Jones got a top prospect and two 1st

He is gonna get top value for Gav if he trades him, and it would definitely include a 1st</div></div>

I think a big part of that conversation is less "should Gavrikov be worth a first" and more is Gavrikov worth a 1st+? I wanted to err on the side of caution - I tend to find people easier to deal with on this site if they're the ones talking you down as opposed to fighting about whether the fan's perceived value is more accurate than the external POV. My guess is taking out Kemp solves the issue.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmah007</b></div><div>If Arizona is willing to retain that much on kessel I would assume 20 other teams would top that offer.
I really don’t see this obsession with strome completely fine with packaging yam even benson who I really like but would hope they can land a better player than strome. Top line I just don’t see the point we have better options currently on the team. I think scratching the guy who lead all d in points is just as odd as putting Strome on top line.</div></div>

The Coyotes only owe Phil $850k this season: them retaining 50% is strictly for the cap hit involved, in reality it's less than half a million dollars. The Coyotes retaining 50% on what's left of Kessel is a given in any trade for him.

I find the obsession with Barrie's counting numbers - especially in the context of playoff games - to be just as bizarre as how some of my roster decisions appear to have been interpreted. Perhaps I should have specified, but of course I'd play him throughout the regular season. Playing Strome with McDavid is no more bizarre than the outpouring of support the fanbase had for the Kahun-Draisaitl duo last season: the two players have a history that could lead to something at the NHL level. Strome may be a bit of a passenger, but his style is akin to a lankier Maroon. CD282 - like him or not - did a lot of thinking and investigation into the idea and I believe proposed a Keith-Strome for Jones-Koskinen deal prior to the general public learning that the Oilers don't understand what a negative asset truly is.
Forum: NHLOct 19 at 1:36
Thread: 2021/22 NHL Season Discussion thread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>It's 2 years of Toews</div></div>

Incorrect, the AGM was for 2022-23. It was a one-year rental of Toews.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>a near point per game (60 pts in 70 gp in 19-20, <strong>didn't play last year</strong>), Selke calibre 1st line centre, at only 5.5mil, and you make (most) of the cap room by also giving up Kassian in that deal.</div></div>

I bolded the part that concerns me the most. Toews was showing signs of a drop-off before going down for so long. I think a third line role, especially on like a shutdown line, would be the ideal role for someone of his skill and point in his career, but those kinds of pieces don't get the A-prospects in return. Perhaps a first and a third as we saw in the Foligno deal, but with how much of a cap hit Toews actually brings with him and that it's blatantly clear he'd only be the third-best pivot in Edmonton, why should he cost more than the aforementioned Kassian and a 2nd? Why must the Oilers keep doing the Blackhawks favours?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Kassian would cost more than a 2nd to dump imo.</div></div>

I think this might be false during next summer. I think any team looking to keep itself close to the cap floor would take his remaining $5.8M across two years. Edmonton could even retain upwards of a million per season. I think the Coyotes solve this problem quite handily to be honest.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>So you're giving up less than Holloway's value for 2 years of Toews 5.5. It's an absolute steal of a trade and to suggest otherwise is foolish. I like Holloway, but bringing in a capable 2-way leader like that with championship pedigree (who unlike Keith is actually still good) is worth far more than part of Holloway's value.</div></div>

What kind of galaxy brain math is this? The Oilers are giving up - by definition - more than Holloway's value. Kassian and the 2nd are still assets with varying degrees of value and you're forgetting the part where Edmonton TRADES AWAY Holloway.

And how much of a leader can Toews (or Keith) be for that matter if both players were playing such roles in an environment that permitted the sexual assault of another player?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>He immediately would give Edmonton the best top 9 in the league, allowing Drai+McD to play on the same line all the time while still icing a good 2nd line (Hyman-Toews-Yamamoto?) and then a good 3rd line (Foegele-Nuge-literally doesn't matter these 8 are already the best top 9).</div></div>

Edmonton already has one of the best top-9 units in the league, adding Toews isn't going to do anything but enable Tippett to park his head further up his own ass by continuing to run Draisaitl with McDavid. Earlier you agree that he'd be a third-line shutdown center and now you're doubling back on that to finagle in some greater value than what the man can actually provide? Pick a lane and stick with it please.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Edmonton's problem of course remains terrible defense and streaky at best goaltending, but Toews would definitely improve their team defense.</div></div>

He's a forward, and an old one at that. Toews will only do so much. If he's in a third line role at 5v5, then he's probably seeing no more than 12 minutes at even strength and maybe he gets the PK workload. Less than a third of the game. That's not going to be a substantial impact, especially for the cost paid to acquire him.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>In the end it's a moot point because it's a horribly lopsided trade without the cap dump (Kassian) and the retention, and Chicago wouldn't entertain trading him anyway, but it instantly and significantly improves Edmonton's chances of winning the cup in the next 2 years while McDavid is at his most dominant with next to no downside. Plus you still have your 1sts, Bourgault, Lavoie, Broberg, etc. to go after immediate improvements on defense. Not that I think Edmonton is gonna do anything, because they've committed to their mediocre top 4 and are capped out but hey, dreaming is nice I suppose.</div></div>

I think you touch on two key points here which ultimately defeat the idea of this trade:

1. The Blackhawks maintain a degree of sentiment to Toews and will enable him to retire as a Blackhawk.
2. The Oilers front office is life-threateningly allergic to math and other forms of sound, logical decision making and would never get out of their own ways to improve the team.

I really appreciate the gusto in which you approach the idea in general, but there needs to be some time to pause and consider the other side of the equation: Edmonton is in a disastrous cap situation next season and Holloway is going to provide supreme value in terms of his skill and his ELC. A nearly $6M third line center cannot be an option for the Oilers next season unless Keith retires, and in any case that money should be thrown at upgrading the blueline as much as possible: Smith's term and the organization's increasingly obvious projection of Skinner as next year's backup is going to leave even more question marks in net.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 18 at 9:15
Thread: Oilers Prospect Team
I'd personally take Safin off this list: I don't think he'll be with the organization much longer. I wouldn't consider Soderlund a prospect either. Filip Engaras could be on this list, he's having a half-decent season in the NCAA thus far. Maxim Denezhkin should be here too. Siikanen probably warrants a position on this list over Lindewall.

If we were to organize this roster by floor/how far along each prospect is, I think it would probably look a lot more like:

Savoie - Holloway - Bourgault
Lavoie - Denezhkin - Tullio
Petrov - Brind'Amour - Berezkin
Siikanen - Chiasson - Engaras
Lindewall

Samorukov - Berglund
Niemelainen - Kemp
Broberg - Kesselring
Munzenberger

Skinner
Konovalov
Rodrigue

I know the organization is trying their damnedest to develop Holloway as a center and Lavoie as an off-handed forward. I think Bourgault is playing as a RW in the QMJHL right now too. The Oilers' brass is super high on Skinner right now to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if they run Smith-Skinner as next year's tandem. Broberg isn't a failed prospect but is going to arrive far later than the rest of his draft class: Samorukov should be a lock for the NHL next season but Nemo has been surprising over the past season and a bit.

The five Russian prospects the Oilers are currently employing under this setup are very much worth keeping an eye on. I think all of them could be in the NHL one day.
Forum: NHLOct 16 at 7:24
Thread: 2021/22 NHL Season Discussion thread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yikes</b></div><div>As Beter said getting D is the most important imo. I think their depth is fine on F but they should move Kassian and bring in two depth pieces that would provide better use of the cap space Kassian takes up.

I say Gibson solely because;

If I’m John Gibson, a former top 3 goalie, who’s not old; and I get told I’m going from the Dumpster Dwelling Ducks to McDavids team im pretty ****ing pumped. Guy - he just needs a smaller workload (which Smith provides) and then to get to the playoffs. Where he can get a chance to prove himself. And I think the chance at a cup by playing with McDavid, Leon, Nurse, RNH, Hyman is too good to pass up. A improved D, maybe move Kassian, and Gibson would make me bet on EDM this year.

No team is a lock for the cup imo. Tampa needs a new third line or they’re not 3-peating (they could by trade or internally but we need to see it). Colorado is strong but they didn’t really address what lost them their last series; they’re the favourite tho imo. And the east is so deep. Vegas is crippled without Patches and Stone - they could free fall tbh. The isles may be my second favourites but again, the East is deep.

The <strong>Rangers</strong> are super tempting to make some headaches in the Metro and the <strong>Sens</strong> in the Atlantic. For example; those two teams WILL NOT make the playoffs (but never say never IG lol) - but Ottawa and the Rags are gonna be causing problems I think.</div></div>

I'm not as anti-Gibson as a few Oiler fans are and I've learned to read between the statlines a touch. I think he's still very much a quality netminder and would be in the upper echelon of goaltenders if the Ducks ever had the virtue to find him a new home. Part of the problem is I'm also not near as anti-Koskinen as most every other hockey fan either for the inverse of why I'm not anti-Gibson. The math shows that Mikko can be <em>phenomenal</em> for stretches, and like you point out with Gibson just required better tandem management and a competent blueline in front of him.

I understand that the Oilers are going to need to send assets out in order to improve *something* on their roster. Given the current cap setup and especially with the next two years of financial juggling the Oilers will have to undertake, I'm staunchly against $9M spent on two goaltenders. The Oilers are already going to be spending over 50% of their cap on their forwards, possibly upwards of 67%. There is a far greater need to upgrading the blueline - especially in consideration to next season - than there would be to acquire a really, really good goaltender. A consistently average goaltender can take a team to the cup finals if the team in front of him gives two damns hand over fist in their quest for glory. Khudobin did it in very recent memory. Every bit of math and in-depth analysis shows the overarching difference between a .917sv% and a .927sv% netminder is borderline negligible over the course of a season. Math and analysis go out the window once the postseason arrives. If Vasilevskiy was such a game-changer for the Lightning, we'd never seen them busted apart by the Blue Jackets; the Vezina trophy would always coincide with the cup-winning netminder.

If Holland hadn't wildly pissed away his cap space this summer on the corpses of Ceci and Keith, I'd be far more into acquiring Gibson. The money just isn't there for it to mean sustainable success for Edmonton.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 16 at 6:20
Thread: Avs or Leafs did yall ever try Barrie up front
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ragsandbluesfan</b></div><div>With Foegele Ryan Perlini likely being the 3rd line, that really keaves you Kassian, who needs other play drivers, and Benson who doesn't really work in a 4th line role</div></div>

You quote the need for a play driver in reference to the fourth line for Kassian but contend that Benson doesn't work in a fourth line role, I'm guessing because he's a skilled player lite? Is the goal a traditional fourth line or a super sheltered skilled-ish line that isn't going to get caved in at even strength? What team has the kind of fourth line you're looking for, just so I have a reference?

In acquiring Getzlaf, I tried for the traditional fourth line approach with Sceviour, Ryan, and Kassian. They probably aren't scoring much but they aren't going to bleed chances against. If we're strictly looking at the fourth line now, Kassian is going to be skating with Foegele and Ryan tonight. I believe the fourth line is Perlini and Turris centered by McLeod.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 16 at 6:13
Thread: Avs or Leafs did yall ever try Barrie up front
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ragsandbluesfan</b></div><div>Well outside the top 9 theres 0 good players so maybe get him some linemates</div></div>

I don't think you're being completely honest with that assessment and until you're willing to reach something more realistic. I've seen you make this claim a couple times and I don't know how to continue this conversation with you if you aren't willing to entertain the idea of a middle ground.

Ryan is a decent bottom-six piece, I'm not thrilled with him being penciled into the third line this season, but on the fourth line he's a gem of a player. The math suggests that any of Benson, Kassian, and Perlini <em>should</em> be over performing in fourth-line roles, and Sceviour is at minimum not going to cost goals against. Granted the Oilers religiously employ dinosaurs at every level of management and won't get out of their own way to allow those on-ice results to show.

I'd agree that Archibald and Shore were employed to penalty-kill and offer nothing else above replacement level. The less they play the better this team does.