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BeterChiarelli

Hey Beter
Member Since
Oct 29, 2017
Favourite Team
Edmonton Oilers
Birthday
Oct 9, 1995
Forum Posts
4183
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3.05
Forum Threads
484
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 2:45 pm
Thread: Net Adds
Forum: NHLFri at 12:49 pm
Too early standings predictions:

<strong>Pacific</strong>
1. Vegas Knights (y)
2. Calgary Flames (x)
3. Edmonton Oilers (x)
4. Los Angeles Kings
5. San Jose Sharks
6. Vancouver Canucks
7. Anaheim Ducks
8. Seattle Kraken

I'm still super high on the moves the Kings made and I think they're going to really surprise this upcoming season. Vancouver's blueline is in shambles and I don't believe their forwards will have the ability to outproduce their mistakes. The Sharks with goaltending won't be a slouch but likewise their blueline still has cement for legs. Vegas runs away with the division and Calgary offers the next "most complete" team, Markstrom bouncing back a bit won't be a surprise. McDavid and Draisaitl will outscore the Oilers' woes on the back end but this'll be another season where the Oilers won't make noise during the playoffs. Francis has pissed away Bruckheimer's money as far as I'm concerned.

<strong>Central</strong>
1. Colorado Avalanche (P)
2. Minnesota Wild (x)
3. Winnipeg Jets (x)
4. St. Louis Blues (x)
5. Chicago Blackhawks (x)
6. Dallas Stars
7. Nashville Predators
8. Houston Coyotes

I don't like a damn thing that either the Preds or Stars did this offseason. Obligatory Coyotes in 8th. The Avalanche are going to run amok in the Western Conference and once Kaprizov resigns in Minnesota they'll follow suit. I think this will be another "Hellebuyck is a freak" year and the Blues and Hawks will make the playoffs late. I think Chicago ends up on a PDO bender to take that last spot from the Stars, which will trick Bowman and the Hawks management into doubling down on the rebuild being "over" and set them back another decade as Jones continues to regress.

<strong>Metropolitan</strong>
1. New York Islanders (y)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (x)
3. Washington Capitals (x)
4. New Jersey Devils (x)
5. New York Rangers
6. Pittsburgh Penguins
7. Philadelphia Flyers
8. Columbus Blue Jackets

What a bloodbath of a division. I think the Isles and Hurricanes are set to emerge as the true powerhouses of this division for the next half-decade. Carolina did a lot of silly stuff this summer but in all honesty goaltending is the only true question mark they have and I think their blueline still strong enough to mask some of those issues. I only believe one of the Capitals or Penguins to make the playoffs next year: the decline has to begin eventually and I think the Capitals have fewer roster issues than the Pens do. I want the Devils to surprise this year, I'm a massive Blackwood fan and the numbers he was hitting last season coupled with a revitalized blueline suggest that everything is trending up for New Jersey. I think Hughes goes off this season. The Rangers are right there in that fight but I reckon that until they get another top-6 centerman they won't be able to truly get over the hump. I think time is running out on the Penguins and without some drastic moves they should genuinely start preparing to bottom out. The Flyers decimated their back end and Columbus is entrenched in an impromptu rebuild. If they get Wright at the draft they won't finish last next year.

<strong>Atlantic</strong>
1. Boston Bruins (z)
2. Florida Panthers (x)
3. Tampa Bay Lightning (x)
4. Toronto Maple Leafs (x)
5. Ottawa Senators
6. Detroit Red Wings
7. Montreal Canadiens
8. Buffalo Sabres

The Bruins are going to be a nightmare to deal with in the Eastern Conference next year. Their forward depth surpasses anything they've had in a while and I like Ullmark as a Rask stand-in. The sun never sets on their empire. Florida went and made the right moves this offseason and I think moves across the division will allow them to sneak into that second place. Knight wins the Vezina. Tampa's departures and routine LTIR shenanigans will falsely show them take a "step back" when in reality it's just the bow pulling back for another long playoff run. Toronto makes it on merit and simply so we can get another game 7 collapse against the Bruins. Sideways moves at best this offseason and the players will continue to prove their refusal to find another gear. Jack Campbell gets ran out of town. The Sicko Sens are going to surprise. Not enough to threaten playoffs but enough to cause some seeding stress come March. Norris will take a huge step forward this year and Chabot could threaten to finish as a Norris candidate. Detroit rising has more to do with Montreal sliding: the Danault departure and goaltending regressing back to the norm will have the Habs take a step back. Buffalo remains more invested in Rochester than it does the NHL.
Forum: NHLThu at 3:02 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 2:34 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Windjammer</b></div><div>Alright. Clearly you view everything with a heavy Oiler bias. Koskinen is horrific, probably among the 3 or 4 worst goalies in the league with a sub 900 save percentage. I understand you're trying to troll everyone in this thread, but at least try to keep a tiny bit of realism in your posts.</div></div>

If we look to hockey-reference, over the span of January 13th to February 6th while Smith was hurt, Koskinen was an .889sv% goaltender. This was bad yes but also saw him play 12 games in 24 days, a workload he's not known to handle. Once Smith returned, over the span of February 9th to May 15th (13 games), Koskinen sported a 0.929sv%. Had it not been for Holland's inability to keep a goaltender to play with Koskinen, it's increasingly likely that both of Edmonton's goaltenders would have been in the Vezina conversation.

If we turn to naturalstattrick, over the past three seasons Koskinen has maintained a 0.916sv% (re: league average) at even-strength play. For goaltenders over this span that have played 1900min or more (such that there are 62 goalies to look at, two per team over this window) Koskinen ranks 43rd with that same save percentage ahead of names like Demko, Georgiev, Korpisalo, and Hart. If we assume that there are three tiers of goaltender - starter, tandem, and backup - with natural jenks every 20 some-odd goaltenders, Koskinen is either a poor man's tandem goaltender or the peak of backup netminders. This is the exact value I want to extract out of him.

I recognize that he's paid like a starter and cannot perform in that role. That's the point of the retention. He has ONE year left on his deal and I've shown that the Jets can make the cap work in a trade for Koskinen. What hasn't happened in this conversation is any rational sort of reply from any of Koskinen's detractors about how or why he "sucks". Koskinen is at minimum a league average goaltender who's only genuine downside is his cap hit.

It's not bias. It's not trolling. You simply don't have a point to make and resort to name-calling.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 2:03 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMThu at 1:36 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jetman</b></div><div>Winnipeg is going for either Comrie or Berdin as their backup as we only have space for a 750K goalie...not a 3.5M one</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>IconicHawk</b></div><div>Koskinen is way too f*cking expensive for the Jets to afford I’d go the cheaper route and play Berdin (I mean he would barely play any games because Hellebuyck is like a top 2 goalie in the nhl)</div></div>

The Jets have exactly $13.87M in cap space: assuming a cushion of $1M,
-Logan Stanley can/should be bridged for no more than $1M as he doesn't have the GP to justify a substantial raise and lacks arbitration rights
-One of Niku or Heinola will start the season (at minimum) in the AHL
-Copp comes in at the $3.5M ballpark
-Pionk comes in at the $4M ballpark
-4 more sub-$1M forwards, assume an average of $800k
-Beaulieu's inclusion in the deal gives us an extra $1.25M to play with

This leaves the Jets with a maximum of $2.42M to spend on a backup goaltender. Little not coming off of LTIR over the course of the summer (if I remember correctly) may make his cap available for the Jets to spend before the start of the season. Worst case scenario the Jets can wait up to the first day of the season to sign Pionk and do a paper transaction with Heinola.

This trade works if Edmonton or another team retains another $600k. I can adjust the trade if you want but the more likely course of action is a third team retains that sub-league minimum amount (or more) on Koskinen at the Jets' expense. I suspect the cost to do so will be substantially less than during the deadline.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>arafay</b></div><div>The jets don’t have cap space to make any moves to add another backup. Yesterday, in his interview, chevy said the backup job was comrie’s to lose. That said, the above who said berdin is no good clearly hasn’t seen him play. He had a bit of a down year last year (very good middle half but slow start and tough finish) but he’s still very good.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MisstheWhalers</b></div><div>Berdin is pretty good, I've watched a lot of Moose games and he looks solid, not sure if it'll transfer to the NHL but he's good at the AHL whether the numbers show it or not.</div></div>

The transition from the AHL to the NHL is one of the hardest in sports. It typically takes KHL goaltenders to break the .920sv% mark to turn out to be league-average or slightly below it in the NHL. Berdin needs a run in the AHL, not even an entire season to be honest, of solid &gt;.925sv% to justify his place on an NHL roster. It's simply a bad gamble otherwise.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 4:58 pm
Thread: Whats next