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BeterChiarelli

Ban Price trades
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Forum: NHLWed. at 10:12 a.m.
Thread: 2021-22 NHL Off-season Discussion Thread - #1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Tintin</b></div><div>It might make sense to consider to quickly rebuild / retool now.
Bergeron leaves, can make a killing from trading Pasta and possibly Marchand.
McAvoy and Swayman are still gonna be elite in two years.

On the other hand, they just signed Lindholm to that extension.
Would also be very harsh on Taylor Hall having him tied to yet another middling team.</div></div>

Marchand yes, Pastrnak no:

You cannot find value in a trade involving Pastrnak that returns the kind of value that builds into a McAvoy/Swayman core because he IS that kind of piece. Any player returned that happens to be a few years younger is most likely a lesser piece. They have a few interesting options on the wing as it is and the Bruins really only lack two top-six pivots to become a truly contending team again. You could easily fetch one of those in a Marchand deal and they could just as easily sign Kadri to bridge the gap while a prospect taken in the 2022-23 draft percolates.
Forum: NHLSun. at 2:09 p.m.
Thread: 2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: Sidney Crosby, game-time decision, was not diagnosed with a concussion.There was some initial concern, with a headache after Game 5, that might be the case. He was tested, negative result. Nothing further developed and belief is he’s remained symptom-free since.</p>— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) <a href="https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1525897255642857473?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">May 15, 2022</a></blockquote>



Playoff hockey baby. Sid (and the pens) risking his career</div></div>

At this point they're risking his life.

Crosby can't do much else in his career to establish himself as one of the top-5 or top-10 players of all time. The numbers don't even really matter anymore. His career could have ended after that hit and the only people to really lose out would have been the fans. We've been robbed of so much of his talent already but he's accomplished everything ever asked of him.
Forum: NHLSat. at 10:59 p.m.
Thread: 2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>He explained where this is based on in that tweet.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">(Probability based on Dom's playoff probability simulations from each of the past five playoff series. Series in different years treated as independent events, which might be a little iffy but not too egregious</p>— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1525655854581702656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">May 15, 2022</a></blockquote>

</div></div>

So then the math would be:

A^z × B^y × C^x × D^w × E^v = 1/27,778, where:

A is the odds from the series in year 1
B is the odds from the series in year 2
C is the odds from the series in year 3
D is the odds from the series in year 4
E is the odds from the series in year 5
z is the number of games that could clinch in year 1
y is the number of games that could clinch in year 2
x is the number of games that could clinch in year 3
w is the number of games that could clinch in year 4
v is the number of games that could clinch in year 5
Forum: NHLSat. at 10:49 p.m.
Thread: 2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Sorry, I'm gonna need to see the math on that one.</div></div>

The approach I took was to take the base-two logarithm of 27,778: there are two outcomes of an NHL playoff game so if the two teams are evenly matched you could expect any game to be a 50-50. Thus (1/2)^x should equal that 1/27,778 figure of JFresh's, with x being the number of instances the Leafs have been in that situation for either team to clinch.

The result I got was around 14.76. I don't know the specifics of the Leafs' series but I know that x cannot be greater than 20 in this instance as there are only 4 possible games that can clinch a series (I believe the max for this number is actually 16 as I don't recall the Leafs or their opponents being up 3-0 in the series).

This leads me to suspect that JFresh is using odds from his model and that the distribution of who wins the game isn't 50-50.
Forum: NHLMay 9 at 1:24 p.m.
Thread: 2021-22 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #2 - Free Connor Ingram
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Introducing … Team Canada! 🇨🇦2️⃣4️⃣ players will wear the 🍁 at the 2022 IIHF World Championship in Tampere and Helsinki, Finland.ROSTER ➡️ <a href="https://t.co/HtfCt890zU" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://t.co/HtfCt890zU</a>NEWS RELEASE ➡️ <a href="https://t.co/gCjdgMd9xP" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://t.co/gCjdgMd9xP</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/IIHFWorlds?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">#IIHFWorlds</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/IIHFHockey?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">@iihfhockey</a> <a href="https://t.co/3dQvhfusAE" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/3dQvhfusAE</a></p>— Hockey Canada (@HockeyCanada) <a href="https://twitter.com/HockeyCanada/status/1523710248627884040?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">May 9, 2022</a></blockquote>



This team is going to kick ass</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>3 Devils. Nice. That's a young forward group right there.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Yup very good team.

Dubois-Barzal-Batherson
Johnson-Cozens-Anderson
Sillinger-Mercer-Roy
Comtois-Lowry-Geekie

Chabot-Severson
Sanheim-Whitecloud
Graves-Mayo</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Watch them lose to Finland in the finals with our top player being Joel Armia or some sh*t.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>I'm game. Then trade Armia for 3 1sts</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>SJ re-sign Barabanov, 2 x 2,5</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="und" dir="ltr">2x$2.5M <a href="https://t.co/8291RlQjVO" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://t.co/8291RlQjVO</a></p>— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) <a href="https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1523714329354285056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">May 9, 2022</a></blockquote>

</div></div>

Offseason discussion thread is <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/580586">this way</a>. Thanks.
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