BeterChiarelli

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Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 6:02 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ConnorMcHellebucyk</b></div><div>Soooo? Throw the roster in the blender based on the opponent haha?</div></div>

Not really: I think the trick is to identify the intended duos and work around those.

We know McDavid-Kassian is a pair that's going to start the season. We know Draisaitl-Yamamoto had insane chemistry last year but ran out of gas towards the end without what RNH brings to that duo. Turris-Puljujarvi is expected to be what starts on the third line and we know JP plays well with a right-handed center. Archibald and Khaira are bona-fide fourth liners. The trick - based on the opponent then - would be just to fill in the gaps:

To start the season:
[] - Draisaitl - Yamamoto
[] - McDavid - Kassian
[] - Turris - Puljujarvi
Khaira - [] - Archibald

By the midpoint:
[] - McDavid - Puljujarvi
[] - Draisaitl - Yamamoto
Ennis - Turris - []
Khaira - [] - Archibald

If we take your moves as gospel, it's also not like we're trying to fit all of the LW's in all four vacancies: we know RNH is playing on one of the top two lines. Ennis is a rover, and Kahun would be auditioned likewise. The fourth line depends entirely on whether or not its Haas, Nygard, or an external candidate.

I think the shuffling would be a temporary thing, and resolved for the most part by like game 12 at the latest. At that point, yeah, the lineup would depend entirely on the opponent or how crucial those 2 points were for the Oilers at that moment in time. Basement teams I'd be using to get Neal into games or to experiment with Nygard up the roster, and games that require more defensive acumen or physicality would see Kassian.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 5:49 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Russell isn't going to play above Jones and Barrie isn't going to play above Bear - based on their performances last season. I don't know much about Koekkoek but his numbers last year show better than Russell too.

I really like those additions though. I'd love to see Kahun signed for 2 years, however.</div></div>

I'd love to see some sort of justification as to why Barrie shouldn't be playing above Bear: Barrie's had 20min a night plus for years and while Bear exceeded expectations last season, the results weren't the prettiest.

Assuming 3 powerplays and penalty kills per night (league averages) and the top PP unit sees all 6 minutes of icetime for the powerplay: Barrie still sees 14+ minutes of icetime per night. I don't think Bear <em>needs</em> to be used on the PK (Nurse/Larsson and Russell/Jones are good enough pairings), so is the assumption that Nurse-Bear is a thing only because Bear should be looking at playing strictly 20 5v5 minutes per night? The second Bear gets any special teams time, the club should be looking at balancing his minutes with a Nurse-Barrie pairing: I'm disinterested in having 4 defenders playing over 21 minutes per night because the club elected to extend Russell for a year but feel that he's only a 16-minute man (14min 5v5, 2min PK). Nurse (20min 5v5, 4min PK), Bear (20min 5v5), Jones (18min 5v5, 2min PK), Larsson (16min 5v5, 4min PK), and Barrie (14min 5v5, 6min PP) already sees 5 guys pushing 20min per night without completely overworking the Nurse-Bear pairing.

But, as per usual, I'm either overthinking or underthinking the problem, and I'm never sure which.

I like the Kahun and Koekkoek signings because it means some other team doesn't have them. They're very functional depth pieces to have in a condensed season, and I think there's a case that Edmonton should need both. I'd beg Bear for a third year if that's his AAV. Klefbom's gone for the year no matter what: the team needs to move its ass a bit faster on getting him on LTIR before the season starts and to start offering a little more to the trio you've signed to ensure Edmonton goes into this season with as much quality on it's roster as possible. Wouldn't mind Hoffman for a year if he was interested.

Echoing the above sentiments of Jones &gt; Russell, and if Koekkoek ends up playing more than ol' Cowboy, I like that bottom pair a hell of a lot more.

I think at this point a more likely return for Chiasson is going to be a 7th and an AHL player to keep the 50-man lists even for both clubs, possibly a small amount of retention on Edmonton's end. I'm fine with that: the goal at this point isn't cap space, but rather a roster spot. I'd inquire as to whether or not tagging on Wells ups the return any, if at all.

I would think RNH and Kahun might switch spots if the German connection works (this time) and I have nothing but grievances with your fourth line. Either Nygard-Khaira-Archibald or Khaira-Haas-Archibald. The Turris signing tipped off that the fourth line should be expected to eat the garbage minutes and matchups, and putting Neal on that line is nothing but hazardous. I'd rotate Kassian and Neal out based on the opponent and the hot stick once Zack finds himself demoted in favour of Puljujarvi. Until then, I'd be running the blender between the McDavid and Turris lines until something sticks on either line.

Ennis - McDavid - Kassian
Kahun - Turris - Puljujarvi

to start the season (Neal in for Kahun sometimes?). I think the club has to at least entertain a Neal-McDavid-Puljujarvi line at one point or another, and I think a Kahun-McDavid-Puljujarvi line would be nothing but firewagon fun. I still personally want to see what Nygard does alongside McDavid with more than 12 minutes.

I wouldn't be against the RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto line being the #1 line until whatever the McDavid line ends up being proves that it's come to play at evens.
Forum: NHLThu at 11:49 am
I would love nothing more than it to be Wallstedt, and I genuinely don't know how any team passes up on him in the top 3. If he keeps his SHL pace up for the year, it's very likely that he's NHL bound the second his contract is up in Sweden. His numbers are asinine. His worst season was a .901sv% run as a 16y/o in the Swedish U20 league, and he still managed to finish in the top half of goalies that year. Mind boggling. He doesn't appear to be as dominant against his peers as Askarov is, but he's apparently made a very successful transition to the highest levels of Swedish hockey.

I don't even think Raty looks like a top-5 pick right now: he's not being used very effectively (or at all?) in the SM-Liiga right now and his numbers took a step back at the U20 level. He and Wallstedt have a clear advantage over the North American prospects right now given that they'll play more games, but he needs to turn it on sooner than later to secure that status.

Not sure if a defenceman goes first overall: there was enough superstition around the idea when Ekblad went first overall, and the best player from that draft ended up going 3rd overall. Unless the Red Wings are picking 1st - who have a very clear and obvious need for a #1 defender to pair with Seider - I wouldn't expect a rearguard to go 1st.

Keep an eye on Dylan Guenther once the WHL starts play. He was electric for the Oil Kings last season (really fun to watch, he's always up to something on the ice). He had a very strong D-1 season and if the Oil Kings put him in a position to succeed, he could single-handedly dismantle the WHL.

Right now, I'd go:

1. Wallstedt
2. Power
3. Clarke
4. Lambos
5. Guenther
6. Raty

I like that there's no clear-cut #1 right now. The past drafts have been boring with the top 1 or 2 positions being known by like November. Good year for defencemen.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 21 at 9:21
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mm1010</b></div><div>hes not their mentor. he is their stop gap when they need a break. Mentorship would come from barrie this year nurse and klefbom if he is back next year.

Bowey will cost you the same if not more than russell
Koekkoek probably less.

With what the oilers have both those players dont have a veteran presence if anything it makes the defense weaker and and less stable for next year on top of adding 2 potenial rookies. JOnes in year 2 and bear in year 3 id rather go with the player with 850 games played can play L and R vs a Dman with 150 GP and can only play one side.</div></div>

Neither Bouchard nor Broberg should be in the NHL this year, which discounts Barrie as a mentor unless they resign him. Nurse/Klefbom can at least get them up to speed on how to manage the minutes, but we're still talking about a completely different caliber of rearguard here.

There's no benefit to the number of games played if the man in question is completely ineffective at two-thirds of his job and is statistically expected to regress at the only thing he does well. If veterancy was all it took for a player to be quality, the early 2010s Oilers would have never been as bad as they were. They had a lot of guys that played a lot of games. The problem? The skill and ability wasn't there. Both Bowey and Koekkoek have played effectively 2 seasons of NHL hockey: these aren't players that need to learn to adjust to the pace of the game, and they've proved competent in a bottom-pairing role (the exact same place we expect Russell to occupy). Even if they cost more, the club as a whole gets more by investing in them today: you gain a competent defender that can split time with Russell and outright replace him next season.

Russell is incredibly ineffective on his off-side. He's bad enough to the point where it's genuinely detrimental to the team to run him there, and as he regresses with age it's bound to get worse. Please re-up on his underlying numbers before committing to ascribing Russell a level of quality that he just simply isn't anymore.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 21 at 6:40
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 21 at 5:27
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 21 at 5:00
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 20 at 5:00
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 20 at 4:55
For the sake of argument, I'm going to make a critical assumption that all 7 Canadian AHL teams play north of the border this year and that there will be something resembling an AHL season. I think it's worth mentioning that I firmly believe that Haas and Nygard are on the 23-man NHL roster.

Quine and Griffith are not depth guys in the AHL: they belong at the top-end of the roster. Conversely, I don't believe Lavoie will be used in a premier role in his first professional season: it's an often-difficult transition to make from junior, and it's still a difficult transition to make from the Allsvenskan.

The writing on the wall for Marody is becoming increasingly more obvious: he needs a strong bounce-back season to regain some legitimacy to his title as a prospect. If he can find more of a scoring element and continue to work on his two-way acumen, there's a gig for him as a quality depth player in the NHL for years to come. Benson needs to find an upper echelon to his AHL scoring in order to shed his doubters. Given this information and the misplacement of Quine and Griffith in the bottom-six, I would establish Bakersfield's top six as such:

Benson - Marody - Griffith
Gambardella - Quine - Russell

Is this optimal for prospect development? It depends on who you ask: it's very much setting up Benson and Marody for more offensive production, but it denies big minutes from McLeod and Lavoie. I don't necessarily think this is a problem. That entire second line is effectively the call-up squad: productive AHL veterans that the Oilers can rely on in a pinch without upsetting the Condor's ability to produce. The trio of Benson, Marody, and Griffith should be expected to operate at around a point-per-game pace. If Benson is going to build on his skillset and become more of a producing, complimentary winger, this is how it's going to happen. Same goes for Marody: he'd be expected to be the two-way glue for this line.

I don't believe McLeod <em>needs</em> a ton of 5v5 minutes in the AHL in order to develop, but rather, I'd want to see him as the ultimate utility piece for the Condors: tons of PK time, some PP2 usage, extra man situations, and driving a line with more sheltered linemates. In a previous AGM I had Edmonton acquiring some LW depth for the AHL explicitly for McLeod to run-and-gun with. I also think this the more appropriate spot for Lavoie: his mission in the AHL is not to become a two-way player, but to adjust to the pace and style of professional hockey. I'd start him as the #3RW once the AHL assumes play, but graduate him up the lineup as he becomes more adapted. I'd love to see him claim the #1RW spot you've put him into, but in a 40ish game season, is he going to get there fast enough?

Safin is a project, and Maksimov is starting to fall into that category as well: I think they represent a duo where you want them seeing sheltered offensive minutes with a reliable pivot as they continue to grow other aspects of their game. I have Cracknell as the guy that should be pivoting these two: he knows his role by now, given his age. There's a chance for a call-up sure, but at this point in his career, Cracknell's biggest priority is to mentor those younger than him. I think this fourth line as a whole has more utility than I'm giving it credit for: I'd love to see Safin as a net-front presence on the powerplay. Bottom six is thus as such:

[] - McLeod - Lavoie
Safin - Cracknell - Maksimov

The blueline pairings are fine, but Broberg should be staying in Sweden for the entire year and I think you're missing out on capitalizing on a Lennstrom-Niemelainen pairing. I also like the idea of Samorukov pairing with Berglund: they're both two-way guys and I think the give-and-go between who's playing the puck, who's defending, who's pinching, etc will help both men grow both facets of their game. It wouldn't surprise me to see Lagesson make it to the AHL, and I love the idea of not bringing up Bouchard too early. They'd be a very, very strong top pair for the Condors and it gives Bouchard all the more time to refine his play behind the puck.

Lagesson - Bouchard
Samorukov - Berglund
Lennstrom - Neimelainen

Nothing much else to add in terms of the goaltenders. Very much agree that Rodrigue sees AHL icetime as opposed to ECHL minutes, and I agree that Wells is to be moved on from.

I'm not sold on the current organizational depth: most know I was critical of the Holloway pick, and I didn't mind what Edmonton did on the second day of the draft. The problem is thus: if there's to be a large-scale graduation of prospects next season (Benson, Bouchard, Broberg, Lagesson, maybe Lavoie, Marody, and McLeod all in some capacity), who's next to fill in so many roster spots? If Holloway, Kemp, Konovalov, and Rasanen are currently the only Oiler prospects currently outside the AHL looking to make the jump, is the club going to turn to UFA to fill out the Condors' depth like they did with the early Oil Barons? Does the organization lean harder on NCAA or CHL free agency next offseason?

There's already such a shallow amount of quality in Edmonton's farm system, and next year looks like a lot of it is going to migrate to the big club. There's very much a void and I don't know what the plan is to add quality to the organizational depth charts other than it's not going to happen overnight.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 16 at 4:13
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 16 at 3:20
Forum: Expansion DraftOct 16 at 3:18
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OlegP</b></div><div>I am not fully aware of the Oilers situation on Klefbom. Again, this was a <strong>fantasy</strong>
4-4, really? They'd have to expose Yammo and Pool Party. That wont happen

I like Caleb Jones but you'll have to lose someone of value. Right now you may know more about the Klefbom situation but you also sound like a biased homer.</div></div>

I don't believe Holland necessarily needs to nor has plans to protect Puljujarvi: he didn't draft the guy, and if he can find a season of value out of him, he's fulfilled his obligation to do right by both the player and the team. There's no inherent loyalty to the player here just because pen was put to paper. Edmonton could comfortably protect McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Yamamoto, Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones, and Koskinen without derailing too much of their long term plans. Best practice would suggest they package him with Kassian or Neal as part of expansion considerations, but that's not my call.

If it were truly up to me, I'd want Klefbom healthy. He's by a mile Edmonton's best defender. Why would I want him gone? The Oilers are objectively better with him than without, but that reality isn't for me to decide. My bias comes from my understanding of the team, but to call me a homer is disingenuous. I might be the biggest critic of the Oilers on this site. If you're struggling with the idea of teams doing the best for themselves come expansion because you're unwilling to be realistic, I'm not the problem in this case. Maybe invest more of your time into understanding other teams more? It's genuinely worthwhile, and you end up appreciating more hockey at the end of the day. You can't lose.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 16 at 3:09
Forum: Expansion DraftOct 16 at 3:05
Forum: Expansion DraftOct 16 at 2:46
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OlegP</b></div><div>Very true.
Seattle is one of the few teams that can take those players but I don't think Ottawa needs to dump Nikita Zaitsev because they are in the same position as Seattle.
The Sens are 3-4 years away, that is why they went after a 31 year old forward in Dadonov til guys like Batherson are ready to be top 6 on the team. Why would the Sens send futures to Seattle when they can keep Zaitsev to hit the floor and will be bad, regardless.. Kassian. The Oilers have traded all their picks away away. That wont happen. Teams are leary now of the side deals. In the case of Johnson most likely he'll be dumped this year already with incentives so his new team wont mind paying a little as it will be found money!

Johnson assuredly will go to the team as marketing will be important to the Kraken.
That is why I have Subban and Burns on the team as well.
But they can only take so many contracts and will mostly be there in the first few years of the Kraken to sell the game of hockey and not so much the idea that the Kraken will contend right away. Or so, I think</div></div>

I'm being intentionally hand-wavy when I mention those three names explicitly because it'll be names <em>in that group of bad deals</em>. Not necessarily those names specifically.

There's a very high likelihood that Kassian might be the only worthwhile Oiler to take come expansion. It'll effectively be him or Neal, especially if Klefbom does retire. It allows Edmonton to go 7-3-1 without losing any of Jones, Bear, or Puljujarvi. I don't see a point to selecting a UFA: Seattle isn't aware of side deals that individual player may have with their current team. I don't like the risk.

Seattle exists in a hockey market. Vegas didn't. I don't think that the Kraken are going to have to manufacture as much hype through their roster in order to secure a fanbase. I think fans will be content with having hockey back and a clear plan for building for the future. Easier to sell prospects to disgruntled Canucks fans than it is to snowbird gamblers.
Forum: Expansion DraftOct 16 at 2:24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OlegP</b></div><div>Zaitsev contract is one of the worst in the NHL. Kassian lolz. Seattle wont be doing teams favours. Last thing Minnesota will have taken is a goalie. It will be a forward like Greenway or defensemen like Soucy. I won't touch some of the more ridiculous ones like Rust, Vrana</div></div>

I think you appropriately addressed in your most recent expansion draft that Seattle shouldn't be expecting to be very good right off the bat: teams will have wizened up (hopefully) and won't readily expose quality players.

I think you're vastly underestimating the prices GMs will pay to save themselves from their own mistakes. Teams are going to pay out the ass to move names like Zaitsev, Lucic, Johnson, etc. And there's an overlap with the understanding that Seattle isn't going to be Vegas 2.0 right out of the gate, especially if teams use Seattle as a means to offload one of their bad contracts. Some decent players are going to be made available, but my general understanding is that Seattle is better off looking at building for 3-5 years after expansion, especially considering the division they're entering. Vegas is still going to be very good over the next few seasons. Edmonton and Vancouver might be on the verge of becoming divisional contenders for the next decade, and both the Kings and Ducks are poised to exit their rebuilds soon and begin their climb up the standings. Calgary (who has a few relevant years left at least) and San Jose are looking to be the immediate competition for the Kraken. I think the better play is to transition as close to alongside the Kings and Ducks as possible, wait for Vegas to fall off, and compete with the top teams of the Pacific for dominance.

That means taking names like Zaitsev, Lucic, or Johnson to acquire draft capital or prospects, and it means adding in names like Kassian, Wood, and Gardiner in order to ice an NHL team over that window.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct 16 at 2:08
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MaxDomi13</b></div><div>Klefbom retires?!</div></div>

His shoulder has become arthritic, and he's 27 years old. Unless he finds a means to consistently manage the pain, he has considered retirement. He didn't want to come back to play during the play-in, but did so more as a favour reportedly. I think odds are his days of playing hockey are done.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ottawa_Kev</b></div><div>In my view Kassian is a border line 4th line player / AHL player. Given that he is vastly overpaid, the team could make better use of the money by signing some UFAs right now that would provide more value than Kassian provides. Even if your valuation of Kassian is correct there is no way Seattle takes on a contract like that without being paid to do it. If there are teams that value Kassian as a 3rd liner we need to find them and trade him there now. We know that Tipp doesn't that is why Kassian was a healthy scratch. He has got to be moved.</div></div>

Your evaluation of the player and his late cold streak do not define Kassian as a fringe fourth line forward in the NHL. His usage, TOI, and production are all in range of a typical third line player.

Is he overpaid? Absolutely. Does he take dumb penalties? Absolutely.

Seattle's required - by rules of expansion - to take at least one roster player from each team based on exposure requirements. They'll have their choice of Archibald, Khaira, Kassian, and a collection of AHL players. They can either burn their selection on an objectively worse NHL player on an expiring deal, gamble on a UFA that may not sign with them, or they can take the piece with the most objective risk-free value. That's going to be Kassian. Edmonton doesn't need a kicker. If Seattle wants one, any add-in would likely be minimal.