BeterChiarelli

Hey Beter
Member Since
Oct 29, 2017
Favourite Team
Edmonton Oilers
Birthday
Oct 9, 1995
Forum Posts
2156
Posts per Day
2.44
Forum Threads
360
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 7:18 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 7:06 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 6:54 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Most player can eat minutes. But you don't want inferior players playing big minutes. I just wouldn't want the celebrity Subban on my team even at 50% retention.
Hainsey was excellent partner Reilly. So I don't understand the logic why it so difficult to find partner for Reilly.. Fact is Reilly is just average at best defensively and the coaches don't want him killing penalties. So many think he's a "number one" players because of offensively totals, He gets a lot of ice time/points on the PP. He's very good when the Leaf have the puck. But the rest his game, average.</div></div>

Most players can "eat" minutes, but not all of them do it successfully. Hainsey was below-average in terms of possession numbers and rode a PDO bender during his time on the Leafs. Calling him "excellent" seems like a stretch at best and is contradictory to your words. Hainsey was very much an inferior player in his role, and it showed when it mattered. The Leafs couldn't win with him, why expect a Hainsey-type to be what they're missing now?

You'd use Subban in this scenario with Muzzin clearly. I very much recognize that Reilly's game is primarily offensive, and that a more stable partner (Holl isn't horrible here) would help keep him afloat. If Subban could get his back sorted out, the personality shouldn't matter. He'd be at worst 75% the player he was at his peak in Montreal. At $4.5M, that's a steal and exactly what the Leafs would be missing. Personality has little to no bearing on the on-ice product, I genuinely don't understand why you'd want that as far away from the Leafs as possible.

There's a real chance that without trading Marner, Sandin, or Robertson, that a 50% PK Subban is the best the Leafs will be able to acquire this summer. Teams don't line up en masse to give away their best RHD because the Leafs asked them to. There's no money (nor any sense) to sign Pietrangelo. The thing that separates the Leafs from any other franchise is to do the financial things that don't count against the cap. Sports science and medicine are the Leafs' strength beyond the actual rink. If the offseason is going to be prolonged, this is a move that Toronto should make if they're forced into it.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 6:26 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 2:34 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 23 at 12:03
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 22 at 10:09
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 18 at 7:10
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 18 at 6:18
The revisionist history regarding Edmonton and the 2015 draft is phenomenal, and probably wouldn't have resulted in the Oilers going 7/7 on their picks.

From what we've heard from the club - directly or indirectly - the Oilers were very interested in either Chabot or Eriksson-Ek at #16, not Barzal. This was also during a time period where Edmonton's strategy beyond Connor McDavid was to add defencemen at the draft. Brandon Carlo was probably had with the #33 pick, not Aho. You have to remember how much Edmonton's management let it get in their heads that their blueline needed to be addressed at the draft every year until it wasn't a problem: this was the team that was going to take Mikhail Sergachev at #4 in the 2016 draft until Puljujarvi fell. I genuinely don't know who they would have taken at #57 (the pick used to acquire Talbot), but if they had gone for defencemen at #16 and #33, I'd wager that they would have probably taken a goaltender. Daniel Vladar was ranked #2 by central scouting for European goaltenders and ended up going #75 to Boston. His height leads me to believe that if Edmonton hadn't traded any picks, he could have been their guy?

Picks in the third round+ probably don't change all that substantially. Jones and Bear were quality finds late in this draft. Marino likely still gets selected here given that Edmonton went with the shotgun approach to finding defenders in this draft. Svoboda and Pagin were solid bets, and both did eventually see North American ice time, but are likely to not have NHL careers at this point.

Not trading for Talbot pretty much leaves Edmonton's status for 2017-onward in a bit of an enigma. Talbot was instrumental in getting the Oilers into the playoffs that season, so it would be incredibly difficult to say how the team would have fared without him. The Oilers being bad in 2016 was a given, and I figure they end up in a similar situation, and are more aligned with taking a forward at #4 due to Chabot and Carlo now being in the system. Perhaps the team would have a bit more scouting detail on Puljujarvi or would be more apt to take Tkachuk, but it's borderline impossible to tell without being one of the people tasked with making that decision originally.

This day was probably when Chiarelli did the most damage he could have to the Edmonton Oilers.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 7:05
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>The sample size is the entire 2019-20 season, not 35 games. And Holtby has been below average for 3 years now, if that's not a large enough sample size for you I don't know what is. I'm not advocating getting Holtby at all.</div></div>

I must've misinterpreted your initial post then: your minimum value for this season was 35, I read it as guys that have played 35 games.

If Edmonton wants a long-term solution to its goalie situation - and we're in agreement that one of Rodrigue/Konovalov are 2 to 3 years away from being a full-time NHL backup - then Edmonton has very few options. You're either committing term to a tenured UFA/RFA or you're rolling the dice on a relatively unproven backup. The Oilers took the second approach with Talbot and managed a quality year out of him, but little else.

The UFA market for starters is <strong>not</strong> saturated. The market for quality back-up goaltenders is. The only goaltender on the UFA market younger than 30 with a save percentage above .900 this summer is Lehner. The only other sub-30 year old goaltender going to free agency this summer with more than 10 games played is Louis Domingue. The cost for Lehner is going to be insane, both in term and in cash dollars. When evaluating goaltenders over a three-year window by 5v5 save percentage and a minimum TOI of 3000min, Lehner ranks 13th in the league with a 0.927sv%. Khudobin and Halak find themselves on this list as well - 1st (0.934) and 12th (0.927) respectively - but neither of these represent a long-term solution nor a smart bet to give starter minutes to. Khudobin will be 36 and Halak 37 come the end of this season. How much longer can they maintain their dominance at even strength? Which team will be foolish enough to give Markstrom or Holtby - both 30 as of right now - term and dollars? Both men are near the .920sv% mark at even strength over that same three year window and won't cost as much as Lehner or an RFA netminder would.

The RFA market offers more solutions, but these by nature come at asset cost. In some cases, there's risk due to the lack of games played. Does this goaltender have enough of a track record to justify giving up pieces to acquire him? Jarry, Merzlikins, and Blackwood are likely all untouchable right now. This leaves the Oilers with their choice of a very unproven Adin Hill, Linus Ullmark, Joonas Korpisalo, Alexandar Georgiev, or Matt Murray as their only real targets for a long-term solution. Because the sample size for most of these guys is smaller, I'm limited in observing data from this season and last season: when sorting by even-strength save percentage, Ullmark ranks 25th (0.923), Murray 30th (0.922), Korpisalo 38th (0.919), Hill 39th (0.919), and Georgiev 52nd (0.915). To me, it comes down to Ullmark and Murray, but the Sabres have little to no incentive to flip Linus instead of Hutton this summer. An argument could be made for Korpisalo, but I genuinely prefer the bulk of experience Murray has seen thus far in his career.

Murray has had an awful season, but how much of it has been beyond his control? The Penguins, especially of late, have been garbage, and over the course of the season have rarely iced a full roster. A player we essentially gave away became a mainstay in their top four out of necessity due to injury. Jarry has thrived in relation to Murray, but there's a myriad of reasons that would explain that. It could be something as simple as Jarry being a better goaltender, but it could be a nagging minor injury, a lack of confidence from the local Yinzers bagging on him nightly, the team not wanting to perform in front of him, Jarry getting the better lineup in front of him more often, you name it.

I've already revised my ask from a previous AGM. I figure this one is as close as taking Larsson out of the equation. Possible that a year and half a million dollars could be shed from Murray's pricetag as well. Unless the Sabres think Ullmark is the problem, Murray is the only "safe" long-term solution to the Oilers' need of a goaltender. Korpisalo is a riskier fit.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 9 at 4:47