Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Edmonton's situation with Campbell is always going to come down to the salary cap.
Conventional wisdom suggests that unless there's a team willing to take Campbell on as the cap-recapture part of a deal, or to take him for cheap, the Oilers are aiming to buy Soup out in the summer. A few AGM's I've tinkered with for next year have seen Edmonton run a cheap backup to Skinner - I typically use Rodrigue here - because the equal-to-or-greater-than $3M bonus hit that Edmonton is getting from Connor Brown doesn't leave a lot of room for quality investment across the roster. Assuming Edmonton moves Kulak and buys Campbell out, and that the trio of Broberg, Holloway, and Rodrigue all sign for just their qualifying offers, the Oilers are looking at having a hair over $12M to find two top-six wingers, a middle-six winger, a #4C, and a #2RD.
Do I think Merzlikins has a really good chance to bounce back to form on a team that hasn't been as awful as Columbus has in recent memory? Absolutely. But it's coming at the loss of almost $3.5M in cap space (the difference between the sum cost of QO Rodrigue and Campbell's buyout and Elvis' cap hit) and could be the difference between Edmonton having to forsake improvements that are going to be absolutely crucial in other areas of the roster.
If Columbus does this with some sort of retention in exchange for an asset (how much for a first?) then it's much more amenable to where the Oilers are going to be this summer, but I still think that being able to use that $3.5M to add to the skating portion of the roster makes running a rookie backup tolerable, if not legitimately feasible.
This is terrific insight on both Edmonton's cap situation and general roster needs. Just to spitball here, it seems like having Campbell on the roster is unsustainable past this season, so it's safe to assume 1) he's bought out, or 2) he's moved without salary retention. With 2, it's unlikely you're getting a team to take that on without taking back a bad asset or paying significantly (which, unlikely EDM bites), so really the only question is if EDM can get a "bad asset" back that's more tolerable than the buyout cap hit.
Moving Kulak and buying out Campbell nets, what, $5.5M in cap savings (2.75M for Kulak, 3.85-1.1=2.75M for Campbell). Maybe there's a two-birds situation with moving Kulak and Campbell as part of the same deal?
If that deal is with CBJ, EDM takes on Elvis at, say, $1M retained? For a 1st, you might be able to get $1.5-$2M retained over 3 seasons? You'd get $5.5M-4.4M = $1.1M in cap savings instead, you're probably still qualifying Rodrigue, so then it's $12M-4.4M = ~$7.6M in cap space for two top-6 wingers, a middle-sixer, a 4C, and a 2RD using that same math? If it doesn't work out, you're looking at a total buyout cost of $1.5M, $2.8M, $1.625M, and $1.625M (minus about 20% of each due to Columbus' retention). That's basically taking a chance on a different goalie, and delaying the buyout a year and lessening the total impact if it doesn't work out. But it's also clearly not enough to sign all 5 other players you're targeting, though I doubt $12M is enough to do that regardless.
I don't think there's a scenario where Columbus retains more than ~$1M, maybe $1.5M for a 1st, and there's not really a scenario where EDM can make it work without half-retention or more (75% with a 3rd team?), and that gets extremely pricey. So it's really either take a chance at upgrading the goaltender and sacrifices the chance at upgrading the top-6/depth/D; or roll with Skinner/Rodrigue, buy out Campbell, and use the space to target those other areas of need.
The more I look at the math...the more I'm on board with "just buy out Campbell". Columbus' best bet is to retain slightly on Elvis and send him to a team with the space, or just buy him out too. Or let him play and delay that decision...it's not like we need the cap space at the moment.