Just curious, what was Draisaitl's argument when he got his contract? How was he able to get 8.5M a year? What was his comparable at the time?

Most likely a few of: Kuznetsov, Stamkos, Oreilly, Tarasenko, Johansen, Voracek, etc. Mcdavids deal probably played a small role in driving the price up too since they were on the same team and signed in the same offseason

Kuznetsov: Older and bridge before signing big contract.
Voracek: Signed two separate contracts before getting the big one. So older.
Johansen: Older and signed bridge contract before.
Stamkos: If your talking about the 8.5M that was his UFA deal so not a comparable, If you are talking about the 7.5M that was ~6 years before Drai.... hardly a comparable.


The other two you mentioned are the interesting ones. McDavids because it drove up the market a little and Tarasenko's because he was one of the only wingers the past 10 years to get a big deal coming out of ELC.

McDavid having an effect on raising the market for Draisaitl is right. Matthews gets 11.634M so that would drive up Marner's contract should it not? And since Marner is Rantanen's comparable.......you get the picture.
Secondly for Tarasenko that was another outlier contract. Being older helps because it bought out UFA years. But irregardless of that, finding another winger before him to come out of ELC and get paid takes you back to a different NHL time and contract landscape. So if we are to use his contract you have no choice but to inflate for time passed and use as your bottom comparable.

The increase in scoring league wise isn't enough to counterbalance anything. The previous year when Rantanen put up 84 points, the league wide scoring went from 2.67 to 2.73. That is barely an uptick. You can use the 2018-19 as more of case but that it doesn't explain the year before it.

So looking at all the comparables over the past decade it appears, I think I was too deadset on a an exact number as a low starting point. I think the happy medium for a starting point would be anywhere between the 9M and 9.5M to account for inflation since the last comparables and Marner's contract being the gross overpayment of current comparables.

So simply using this:

Taraenko 2015 - 7.5M
Draisaitl 2017 - 8.5M
Rantanen 2019 - 9.5M - 10M (I think this number is actually pretty close to Marner's because of the tax variance since Colorado has one of the lowest State taxes)

I think Colorado has zero basis for comparables under 9.5M and 10M may be the high end of the spectrum considering 10M in Colorado is pretty much the Marner contract in Toronto.

I think the most important part of all of this though is what term we're talking about here. Marner's contract was high in cap and low in term. I was ok with Marner getting 10.893M but I was assuming 8 years not 6. Toronto overpaid the cap on the amount of term also.

If Rantanen gets 10M I expect him to be signed for 8 years as a minimum. Which in my mind was the Marner equivalent but on the term he should have got had he got the over payment. If we start going into the 5 years of less, its a whole different ball game.

My breakdown:
10 - 8 years
9.75M- 7 years
9.5 - 6 years
Anything in between this should not be considered
8 - 3 years I guess?

I think the high end is 9.5 (or 9.6 if he wants his jersey number represented idk) with an 8 year term. Honestly though we are not far apart in our estimates, just about 500k off. I just dont see how he could make over 10 as an RFA with less negotiating power after elite UFA wingers like Stone and (to a lesser extent) Kuch signed for 9.5. If you factor in the minor difference in tax rates (COL has slightly higher taxes but they are still low relative to the rest of the league) I think that makes up for the difference between RFA/UFA and makes 9.5 AAV a very fair offer over 8 years.

Yeah i think its splitting hairs at this point. Good negotiation coupled with media/ownership/player pressure could swing the difference to either side so the rest is just a variable. I do think however the Avs current offer of 8.4-8.7 is low. If Rantanen wants to sign that he is more than welcome to though. Players don't always have to take the most possible ALL the time. But I do think anyone saying that its a fair offer for him to accept isn't accurate based on what we have seen. Based on all factors, that is low and Rant has a case for expecting and wanting more than that. Easily. I still think based on the current NHL climate, asking for 10M isn't a stretch but I can see the GM's plating their flag against it, with the final outcome meaning players missing games.

Yea because Marner was over paid by Toronto.. Toronto is screwed and will be offloading any young talent that comes into the organization for the next 5 years.

Rantanen does not deserve more then 10M.