My only criticism in looking explicitly at 5v5 stats is that Miller's role on the Vegas powerplay or TVR's on-and-off usage on the Carolina penalty kill (pre-Edmundson) is lost in translation. Being able to operate - and produce even - on special teams is still something worth mentioning, and it's not without value. You've wholeheartedly convinced me that Matt Benning is the superior 5v5 player: I won't bore us looking into special teams numbers, and will instead observe that all things considered, Benning's worth a 2nd Round Pick as is.

I'll die on the Kassian hill though; Maroon as a perfect comparable fetched a 3rd Round Pick and a C-prospect. Kassian's total production is falling short of that list you mentioned. A 20-20 split does not equate to a 20-40 split. This is a player I am dreading the Oilers resigning to a bloated deal because his goal production is hitting those kinds of numbers. Historically, he's never produced like this since junior, and far too often he's toeing the line between being a useful asset on ice and being detrimental (stupid penalties, suspensions being my biggest concern). Edmonton has no other real option to try in that #1RW slot (I'd be damned curious as to what Jurco could do in that spot given enough minutes) for the time being, but I still think capitalizing on a Kassian trade this deadline is paramount for Edmonton truly progressing into not being a perennially-bad team.

My value's off, and a re-assessment of how such a trade looks would clearly need more value coming back for Edmonton. The issue of asset management moving into the Bouchard era is also at stake: if Bear is for real, and the plan is to keep Larsson until the 2021 trade deadline, Benning becomes the clear casualty on that right side. All of this, of course, assumes Bouchard really lays into the AHL this season and he's on the opening-night roster for the onset of 20-21. Is it more worthwhile to the Oilers organization to run Benning - an asset we've just established that could fetch a decently high pick - as the spare defender and rotate him with any of the Oilers' projected RHD (which would ultimately decrease his value), or do you look to move him when value is highest and teams are willing to move picks the most?

Kassian falls into this issue as well, but in an addition-by-subtraction sort of manner. Edmonton's RW depth is atrocious no doubt, and into next season, the only real projection I see right now is []-Neal-Yamamoto*-[], with the potential for Yamamoto to slot as the #1RW strictly based on how his October may or may not go. I think Puljujarvi is as good as gone (his trade should focus more on acquiring a LW), Maksimov will need a 2nd year in the AHL, and that Safin is still a project. This leaves Edmonton's #1 and #4RW slots open, and I don't think a $3M Zack Kassian is a fit for either role. There's little to suggest that this is the kind of production he will have over the course of his next deal, and I've had my fair share of overpaid fourth-line wingers in this town. I want to invest $1M or less on fourth line players and be willing to shell out more money for scoring forwards up front. The lack of toughness won't sink this team: there's still plenty of mean pricks to be had in Orange and Blue, and it's made Kassian expendable so long as the savings earned from not signing him are used to acquire someone who could out-produce him and potentially see #2PP time.

Coming full circle and assuming the Leafs still want to play ball with something built around the deal I've mentioned above, how much more do the Oilers need to take back for this deal to work? Clearly they should be asking about a 2nd and 3rd Round Pick plus. Does a 2nd and a half-decent prospect get the deal done? Again, if Edmonton is not looking to be a sure-fire contender, bringing in as many draft assets becomes the mission. They'll either stock the cupboards for down the road or be used as tradeable assets at the draft to acquire immediate help. I think I'd now start at the 2020 2nd Round Pick, 2021 3rd Round Pick, and Mikhail Abramov and look at using those picks to acquire Tyler Johnson at the draft. I'd love to know your input on a reformed trade now that we're past debating Benning's value.

Special teams certainly affect player value, no question. Miller, however, was traded because he was superseded in VGK by Theodore. Buffalo bought him for "weak 3RD" rates though, they didn't pay for him as if he was a 40-point defenseman. They have Dahlin and Ristolainen who are better on the PP, so Miller is kind of a back-up for that position. The acquisition makes sense from that standpoint. I did mention Miller's PP ability but didn't dwell on it much because the other players here didn't get comparable opportunities.

TVR has played an average of 1:09 on the PK vs Benning at 0:50 in the past 2+ years. Not a lot of difference, and their On-Ice scoring differential shows similarly: -6.72 G/60 for Benning vs -6.78 for TVR.




No I think I wasn't clear enough in that paragraph. Here are select players who scored about 20 5v5 goals and about 40 5v5 points last year.

Seguin: 82, 19-26-45
Scheifele: 82, 20-23-43
O'Reilly: 82, 18-25-43
Couture: 81, 17-24-41
Nyqvist: 81, 16-25-41
Nelson: 82, 19-17-36
Connor: 82, 18-17-35
Anderson: 82, 20-14-34

My justification for Kassian attaining these numbers is this: in the past 58 games dating back to January 1st - about when Kassian started playing with McDavid last year - Kassian has 13 goals and 16 assists at 5v5. That projects to 18.4 goals + 22.6 assists over 82 games, for 41 points total. That's not a player you trade for a cap dump just to obtain a 2nd round pick when the playoffs are on the horizon.




As am I. If he scores like I've projected above, I think he warrants a 1 year, $3M deal or something along those lines - no term though. He certainly isn't going to get more money or term anywhere else.

I'd like to see Jurco in that spot too, I think he might do just as well. And in a year or two, Lavoie. (Hence no term for Kass.)




It's a good question. I'd be tempted to move Benning once Larsson is healthy as long as Persson and Bear continue to be able to hold down top-4 jobs. Running Larsson on the 3rd pair means he's there to move up as needed, but also that Benning doesn't have a job. But if Persson shows he can't handle top-4 and (say) Bear gets injured, that leaves just Larsson as our sole top-4-capable RHD - unless we keep Benning. I'd say Holland will monitor Persson over the next 4 weeks to see how he does and makes a decision on Benning based on what Persson is showing.




Don't forget Lavoie, but he'll likely need a year in AHL anyways. I think Tippett puts Yamamoto on the 3rd line to start, Holland likes prospects to be eased into the lineup as much as possible and the McDavid line sees the toughest comp every night. So there's probably still a spot for Kassian for 1 more year after this one. I agree that Puljujarvi is likely gone, not knowing the trade return makes it hard to project forward lines in the future. Kassian may not be ideal, but he's a pretty good alternative at the moment. He's tied for 37th in league scoring at 5v5 since January 1st (just 1 point behind Leafs leaders Tavares and Marner), that's worth $3M to me if he can keep it up.

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=gpdate&fd=2019-01-01&td=2019-11-04&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL




I'd have to think about it. At this point it's kind of moot - the Oilers are doing well and the Leafs aren't, no way is Holland going to sell at the deadline if it looks like the Oilers will be playoff-bound. But if not, Kassian would be a decent rental for the playoffs, I could see a few teams taking a swing at him. He has speed, unlike Maroon, and is built for the physical side of playoff hockey. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a decent pick as a rental.

And Ceci isn't a cap dump at this point, he's the 2nd highest Leafs defenseman by TOI and he's #1in goal differential. Why would they trade him with picks when his contract expires next summer?