-Giving up too much for Pulju
-Blues and Hawks likely will not give up that much for those players
-I would hold onto Georgiev and look to trade him in the offseason because we do not know what the plan is for Shestyorkin yet

Think you are looking to move the right players, but I am not as optimistic about the returns.

You have appropriate values for Kreider and Strome. It's unclear whether those teams would pull the trigger but the values are right.

Your values are too low elsewhere.

I calculated the value for puljujarvi by comparing him to nikita gusev, gusev got a 2nd and a 3rd, so I started there, puljujarvi is putting up points in a worse league than the khl but has nhl experience so that cancels out. puljujarvi is younger than gusev so I figured hes probably worth a bit more than gusev. I would say hes worth 2 seconds but Edmonton wants a player back to help them out now so a former first round pick in andersson and a third round pick seems like fair value to me. Every media pundit says Kreider is worth a first, I am skeptical of that but hes worth more than zucc and zucc got a conditional second and third so I think Kreider could get a first and kostin especially if salary I sretained which it would have to be, if theres no salary retained then I think he would bring back kostin and a second and third with the same conditions as the zucc trade. as for strome I would just trad ehim to anyone, I picke dthe hawks cause maybe they wanna unite the brothers and if strome gets 60 points this year hes absolutely worth a second round pick. that georgiev trade is on draft day so it is in the offseason, we should know by the end of the year what we are gonna do and we cant keep all three goalies afte rthis season anyways.

just look at what I said to rja in regards to puljujarvi, as for georgiev, trading goalies has no precedent in the league and assuming he finishes with around 50 games played and a 2.75 gaa and like a 910 save percentage then I think what I have is fair, the goalie market this summer is really good too with a lot of rfa's so I don't think anyone will give up more than that for georgiev.

Puljujarvi is way worse than gusev so if the rangers make the decision to trade lias for puljujarvi that’s would be enough.. I think as of right now georgiev gets more than that... and fast won’t make that much to be a 4th liner

I see what you did but i'm not sure why you did it that way since it doesn't make much sense....I mean it seems like you want to compare production judging by you bringing up Georgiev stats so let's do that.

Here are your relevant translation factors:

NHL: 1.0
KHL 0.7461
Liiga 0.4696

So let's take the most relevant repeatable number here: Even Strength Goals /60 (since we have to adjust for TOI of course)

Now let's take your players: Puljujarvi and Gusev

And let's look at their D+4 year where Puljujarvi is now all equivalent to NHL rates. .

Gusev was in the KHL. Good for 0.86 Goals/60
Puljujarvi is in Liiga. Good for 0.62 Goals/60

As a Ranger fan, you should probably know Jesper Fast and Brett Howden both have 0.72 Goals/60...

As for Lias and your devaluation of him I posted about it previously, I'll just copy and paste:

Wouldn’t it be nice to see what Lias could do with Top 6 linemates before thinking that makes remote sense. Almost the entirety of Jesse’s career scoring is with the help of McDavid, Drai, or RNH. You give Lias any of those guys and it’s pretty probable he outpaces Jesse offensively.

I wanted to look at this more. Here’s what I did:

I took a look back at their history, and then since Lias has only ever been on the 4th line in the NHL, I took a look at what Pool Party has done on the 4th line to compare and used their on-ice performance.

So I converted all these numbers to NHL equivalent rates using Manny’s translations:

Draft Year:
Lias = .29 p/gm equivalent in SHL Jesse = .26 p/gm equivalent in Liiga

Draft + 1 year:
Lias = .41 p/gm equivalent in SHL Jesse = .30 p/gm equivalent in AHL. 24% team point %
Lias = .24 p/gm equivalent in AHL 20% team point % Jesse = 0 gf/60 and 1.68 xGF/60 in 62 mins on the 4th line
Lias = .2.99 gf/60 1.86 xGF/60 in NHL in 80 mins

Draft + 2 year
Lias = .24 p/gm equivalent in AHL 20% team point % Jesse = .21 p/gm equivalent in AHL 18% team point %
Lias = 1.29 NHL GF/60 1.81 xGF/60 420 mins Jesse = 0.93 NHL GF/60 and 2.26 xGF/60 in 128 mins on the 4th line

Draft + 3 year
Jesse = 0.48 GF/60 and 1.35 xGF/60 in 126 mins on the 4th line
Lias = 1.4 GF/60 and 1.9 xGF/60 in 85 mins so far

Again, that’s just the Offense we haven’t even mentioned Lias far superior defense. I wouldn’t compare the 2.

I understand the comps from both sides, but the circumstances and leverage are different. For Pulju, he is not coming back to EDM, and not every team is willing to take a chance on him, so sacrificing Lias in this deal makes little sense for NYR I think a 2021 second and a prospect would suffice (and I think that's better than giving up Lias for a few reasons I will not get into). But yes I think @sagecoll is getting at something in that they are very different players and Lias has more upside (at this point).

Conversely, few teams would sacrifice first round picks in what should be a deep draft. I think Kreider should yield something similar to Zuccarello, and for a rental, that's not the worst return in the world by any means.

I would agree that the value for Pulj is a bit high, but considering how low regard Quinn seems to have for Lias im not sure. Pulj value should be lower then what a former top 5 pick who is kind of a bust costs, because he's not going to edm and the deadline is coming on fast for him to play this year. Strome's value is right, but Im not sure why Chicago would be trading for him. I cant see them giving up any draft assets. Colorado, St.louis, the islanders, sure he'd get a second at this rate.

I mean Kreider > Nash > Hayes > Zuccarello

Hayes and Zuccarello probably aren't appropriate values because the market was oversaturated. (If you couldn't get Zucc, you settled for 1 of Simmonds, Nyquist, Duchene, Hayes, Dzingel, Stone, Brassard or Johansson.

Now if you don't get Kreider, are you going to go for Tyler Toffoli or Taylor Hall. That's it. Those are your options and Hall is going to cost more than Duchene ( 2 1sts + one of your best prospects)

And Toffoli was a healthy scratch 2 games ago.

So I'd compare this more to Rick Nash. Except Kreider is 4 years younger, and half the cap hit. So whereas Nash gets a 1st + recent 2nd round pick Ryan Lindgren. (we can neutralize Spooner + Beleskey because that was a cap balance addition)

I'd say Kreider deserves roughly around that (with additions for salary retention or trading within division)

Such as from Edmonton: a 1st and recent 2nd round pick Raphael Lavoie
or Dallas: a 1st and recent 2nd rounder Jason Robertson
or Toronto: a 1st and recent 2nd rounder Nick Robertson
or Philly: a 1st and recent 2nd rounder Bobby Brink
or Florida: a 1st and recent 2nd rounder Serron Noel


you can probably see where I'm going with this.

I agree that he SHOULD deserve that, but I would not assume that because there is less supply of rentals means that prices will be inflated, only because I think GMs may want to trade for players with more term (ex. Bruins acquiring Coyle). I think draft classes also change GMs' analyses in evaluating trades. I'm not saying the 2018 draft class the year Nash was traded was bad; it was actually great. But there is so much hype in this draft, and that it's so deep, that GMs likely think that a 29th overall pick could be equal to a mid first round pick in other draft classes. That may depress prices, because GMs want to hold onto their picks. But then again, someone may pull the trigger. I simply look at Sakic holding onto the 16th overall pick this past draft as evidence that teams are not willing to ditch their first rounders, especially this year. Only time will tell.

That's fine. So with that in mind, if all the "1st rounders" were 2021's then conceptually that would work yes?

The Sakic thing was player specific. No one expected Newhook to fall that far, he saw him there, he didn't want to give that up...Also Sakic doesn't make trades in haste and usually gets really good value (see Duchene deal) I don't think any of his actions reflect Kreider's value.

In theory yes the 2021 firsts may be for sale; you just have to ask the question whether a 2020 2nd and 3rd with conditions on them becoming firsts is greater value than a guaranteed 2021 first. Reasonable minds can disagree on what is more valuable.