May 29, 2017
Jun 24, 1990
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shanesaw9</b></div><div>I was big on their projections last year, and with context they are really good. For example, their Kulak projection at 3 yrs was pretty good, but then there main projection was something like $4.5M × 6 yrs, which in hind sight was obviously absurd. They trend high term with high salary because most long term contracts (8 years) are huge deals for star players which means high salary. I'm pretty sure its even trended that way for older players even though they are less valuable when they age.
I'm thinking they likely aren't projecting Domi at 8 yrs (but let's get real, no one is going to give Domi $8.54M on an 8 year deal).
Regardless, the Johnson comparison is a good one no? Whats more is the Johnson contract isn't looking that great for TB right now either with them having to resign Cirelli and Sergachev either is it? So I wouldn't feel comfortable going over this salary for Domi, maybe we don't get him for 8 years, but 5 - 7? It's possible.
Also, I wonder if evolving wild is considering a possibility of a flat cap for the next 3 years? Likely hasn't made it into there equation yet.</div></div>
Yeah the major difference between Domi and Johnson is draft position, which on the ice means nothing. But in contract negotiations/arbitration/etc tends to carry a disproportionate amount of weight. Domi I think was a top 10 pick and Johnson wasn't even drafted. That's a big difference.
With Ferris as his agent I can't see Domi getting below 6 mil/5 years tbh. And I doubt that's worth it for y'all considering your C depth.
Comps I'm seeing (based on signing age vs. career pts/game totals) include guys like Stepan/Kadri/Palat/Teravainen/Granlund/Wheeler. That's putting Domi pretty firmly in the 6.8%->8% cap % wise. Comfortably putting him in the 5.6 on the super low side and 6.5 on the high side. He'll probably make around the middle there.
I'm not positive the flat cap matters in the projection since it's just about cap hit %. For EW they have different AAV estimates based on the cap ceiling so it's a flexible metric.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CheechYou</b></div><div>I mean he's getting bought out and will be getting paid millions anyways. Especially in a high-quantity goalie market. At age 38/39.
If he wants to play somewhere, he'll sign for league minimum. Look no further than Patty signing a 700k contract with SJ after being bought out as an example.</div></div>
not even in remotely the same ballpark lol. But I like the wishful thinking.
He's got really 2 options, go somewhere he can start (where he'd demand about 3-4 mil), teams like San Jose, Minnesota, Calgary, Vancouver, Chicago, Detroit, Buff all check that box.
Go to a bonafide contender and play backup where he'd take whatever they can afford such as Tampa, Philly or Dallas.
It seems like you're conflating the best parts of those 2 scenarios.