Quoting: firezfurx
You are actually dumb. Also, it's very hard to tell how deep a draft will be until you look back later.
If you look at pick sheets, forwards selected 5-10 have a 70% of being top-6, and 30% elite. Not bad, right? With defense there's only a 33% chance that they are top-4, and even less that their elite. Gambling like that is ridiculous. Think about it this way:
You have $100. You can spend that $100 on a lottery ticket to win a pair of headphone, and you have a 70% chance to win headphones worth 50$ or a 33% to win the same headphones you can buy with what you have already. Doesn't make a ton of sense, right? Why wouldn't you just use your 100$ on the nice headphones? And you already have tons of good headphones that will last for years. However, you don't have a keyboard, and you want a keyboard. You could trade 1 of your nice headphones for a keyboard, or you could use those 100$ on a keyboard. OR, you could use your $100 on a lottery ticket that has a 33% chance of giving you a $50 keyboard, and even less to return the keyboard you could buy with the $100. Doesn't make sense, does it?
There are pick charts online but I made my own a few weeks ago. Online ones are more advanced stats focused but that doesn't incorporate filling positional need or return on investment well. Not sure if I still have it, but if you want I can make another one outlining my logic.
2011-2018 draft years here are the D-men that went in the 4-10 range:
Larsson (T4)
Hamilton (T4) (M)
Brodin (T4) (E)
Reinhart
Rielly (T4) (M)
Lindholm (T4) (E)
Dumba (T4) (E)
Trouba (T4) (E)
Jones (T4) (M)
Nurse (T4) (E)
Risto (T4)
Provorov (T4) (M)
Werenski (T4) (M)
Hanifin (T4)
Juolevi
Sergachev (T4) (E)
Makar (T4) (M)
Hughes (T4) (M)
Bouchard (too early to tell, so I'll leave him out of my analysis.)
Top 4 D (T4): 16/18 = 89%
D that are elite, but not quite on MM's level (E): 6/18 = 33%
D that are relatively close to Marner's value (M): 7/18 = 39%
Meaning that P(eliteORmarner-level)= 0.33 + 0.39 = .72
You have an 89% chance of getting a top 4 D man.
You have a 72% chance of getting an elite D man.
Then you factor in the fact that this draft is one of the strongest, and you consider the fact that Drysdale is a significantly better prospect than many of these guys.
You have a good chance of getting a top pairing RHD out of this (worst case scenario you get a solid top 4), if you want to play it by the numbers game rather than by the player itself