It's playing the long game. Cirelli and Sergachev are 22 years old. A trade for either one of them isn't gonna be cheap. I'd love to see a Lightning fan comment to see their opinion on this trade.

Tampa has no want or need for Mittlestadt, who they'd have to re-sign and likely ends up either in Syracuse or on the 4th line. Tampa likely isn't moving either player, as they are integral to not only the win now plan but also represent a large part of the future core. If Tampa considered moving both however, a deal like the one you proposed is what it would take. Cirelli has, perhaps, a slightly higher chance of being moved, but the oft proposed "deal" of 8OA+Mittlestadt, or even funnier, Cirelli+2nd for 8OA and Mittlestadt would meet a quick pass from Brisebois. Neither of these pieces help Tampa now in their prime Cup window. If Buffalo wants him, then it starts with Cozens or Jokiharju plus a 2nd at minimum, which at least makes Brisebois consider. Tampa isn't taking a magic bean and maybe a 4C next year for their 2C that is only getting better.

Yeah I agree with you. Te truth is that Tampa has to move at least one of CIrelli or Sergachev unless a lot of their players waive their NTC.

Post Lottery Plan "Move team to Quebec"

I don't think Quebec wants this mess. They'll wait for Florida.

Tampa can keep both even if none of the 3 full NYC waive. It becomes easier if one does, of course, but if needed a buy out of one also should be enough along with the other moves to get it done. The main player that may have to go is Cernak if one doesn't waive, but he's third on the rfa keep list behind Serg and Cirelli.

I just don't see the cap space. How are they gonna sign Cernak, Sergachev and Cirelli with 5M in cap space? Even if they move out Killorn I don't think 9.5M is enough for all 3 either.

After playing around with Tampa I found the only way to keep all 3 is to trade Vasilevsky or if Gourde and Johnson waive.

As I said, Cernak may have to be traded, but Serg and Cirelli are the top priorities and they will get re-signed after Tampa trades Killorn, Paquette and either trade or buy out one of Gourde/Johnson. Cernsk should stay if one of Gourde/Johnson are moved fully, perhaps not if one had to be bought out. Tampa won't start the year with 23, they'll be at 21 or 22.

They don't have the cap space even with your suggestions. You buy out Gourde you pay 2M in dead cap for the next 10 years.

They most certainly do, many iterations of the team have already been done with keeping Serg and Cirelli. Tampa won't be handing these rfa's monster long term deals like some teams choose to do. Both are very likely to sign 2 or 3 year bridges in the 4 to 4.5 range(less for Cirelli than Serg), and with either a buy out of one of the three or trading them they have more than enough space for a 21 or 22 player roster. It's also not 2 million a year every year, some are less. It wouldn't be ideal, but it is not crippling to the team and is far more preferable to losing either Serg or Cirelli. Much more likely though that they get one of the three to waive, and then Tampa negotiates the best deal they can, even if it's not great, in order to keep all 3 rfas.

I'd like tp see that. Can you link me?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/embed/1766183"

Here's one I made recently, some of the trades would need to be altered, but the basis remains similar. It's a 21 player roster here with a buy out of Gourde. Any trade of him, Johnson or Palat likely allows for them to keep Cernak and run 22, maybe even 23. It's not perfect, but Brisebois and his team are better at this than most fans and no doubt have a plan in place even with the loss of ~3 million in cap.

I can't see Sergachev taking 4.5M. He has similar numbers to McDonaugh when McDonaugh signed his contract and McDonaugh's AAV was brought down by giving him way too much term.

I think Cirelli has to go unless someone waives their NTC.

That's fine, Serg at 4.5 is more than fair, maybe 4 75. His comparables took 4.9 and 5 on bridges(McAvoy and Werenski). Tampa gets their rfa's to take less every time, they know how the system works. Tampa won't be losing either Cirelli or Serg and will continue to be a top 3 or 4 contender for awhile. Tampa knows they are vital to the current window and as future core stars, they aren't losing them. If Tampa was one of a few teams that usually hand inflated contracts to their rfa's, then I'd be concerned with losing one or both of them. As it is, they are not and with both players having an increased role and in a great location, the chances are quite high they will follow every other rfa in Tampa lately and sign a bridge that still gives them a significant raise and keeps them on a top cup contender. They'll then get a nice 8 year payday when more money is available in 3 years.