Captain Crunch

Joined: Jun. 2019

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How tf does Sergachev warrent a 6.5m contract with only 3 years, I get an 8 year extension but he is not better than McAvoy who got 4.9x3. Same thing with Cirelli, with only 3 years he is not making above 4.5M

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Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:21 p.m.

TheAlien

Joined: Apr. 2019

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If a team were to offer sheet Cernak at 4x5 do you think Tampa lets him go?

Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:23 p.m.

Thread Starter

Hasbro

Joined: Mar. 2019

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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

Roughly what the prediction tool had them at. Just want a look at what kind of cap trouble the Ning are in.

Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:26 p.m.

Joined: May 2020

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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

It could be safe to assume that Cirelli & Sergachev will come in around $9.5m-$10m combined on the cap on 3 year bridge deals, no? I would think TBAY has a $10m cap issue that could be solved by moving 2 players. Problem is Killorn is the only one that doesn't have an NTC...

Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:29 p.m.

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Quoting: Hasbro

Roughly what the prediction tool had them at. Just want a look at what kind of cap trouble the Ning are in.

what prediction tool do you use? I have referred to this model lately but doesn;t account for term/bridge. https://dobberhockey.com/2020/02/20/capped-prediction-model-for-free-agents/

Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:32 p.m.

Thread Starter

Hasbro

Joined: Mar. 2019

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Quoting: TheAlien

If a team were to offer sheet Cernak at 4x5 do you think Tampa lets him go?

Would they have any choice?

Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:33 p.m.

Thread Starter

Hasbro

Joined: Mar. 2019

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Quoting: Itchy22

what prediction tool do you use? I have referred to this model lately but doesn;t account for term/bridge. https://dobberhockey.com/2020/02/20/capped-prediction-model-for-free-agents/

Evolving Hockey.

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Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:35 p.m.

Joined: Jun. 2019

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Quoting: Itchy22

what prediction tool do you use? I have referred to this model lately but doesn;t account for term/bridge. https://dobberhockey.com/2020/02/20/capped-prediction-model-for-free-agents/

he's likely using EW where Serg is listed at 6.5x8 and Cirelli at 5.812x6. Due to the cap crunch and no arbitration rights, neither will be correct

Quoting: Itchy22

Johnson's NTC becomes modified next year, if he doesnt want to end up on in somewhere randomly he will likely choose a couple locations he's willing to waive to this off season.

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Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:35 p.m.

Thread Starter

Hasbro

Joined: Mar. 2019

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Quoting: Itchy22

He's even got a 16 team NTC right now so that can handcuff the Ning on a return.

Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:36 p.m.

#10

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Quoting: TheAlien

If a team were to offer sheet Cernak at 4x5 do you think Tampa lets him go?

Why would any GM offer Cernak 4M> and also walk him to UFA. Cernak is a decent #4 but he's definitely not worth more than 3M

Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:37 p.m.

#11

Joined: May 2020

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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

he's likely using EW where Serg is listed at 6.5x8 and Cirelli at 5.812x6. Due to the cap crunch and no arbitration rights, neither will be correct

Johnson's NTC becomes modified next year, if he doesnt want to end up on in somewhere randomly he will likely choose a couple locations he's willing to waive to this off season.

Issue likely become McD likely needs to be one of the contracts that needs to move. Johnson & Killorn probably don't likely get to compliant. Good insights/discuss. Thanks for the prediction tool hint.

Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:42 p.m.

#12

TheAlien

Joined: Apr. 2019

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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

Why would any GM offer Cernak 4M> and also walk him to UFA. Cernak is a decent #4 but he's definitely not worth more than 3M

I'm super high on him and I think he could be a longterm option to play with Hughes.

Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:43 p.m.

#13

TheAlien

Joined: Apr. 2019

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Quoting: Hasbro

Would they have any choice?

Well that's what I was kinda curious about

Jul. 9, 2020 at 3:47 p.m.

#14

Thread Starter

Hasbro

Joined: Mar. 2019

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Quoting: TheAlien

Well that's what I was kinda curious about

Same goes for Serge or Cicirelli. They've got a week to clear the deck to match the offer sheet.

Jul. 9, 2020 at 4:22 p.m.

#15

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Quoting: Itchy22

To view EW's model i think you have to be a patron subscriber though

Jul. 9, 2020 at 4:24 p.m.

#16

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Quoting: TheAlien

I'm super high on him and I think he could be a longterm option to play with Hughes.

You should be pursuing Phillippe Myers equally as much then

Jul. 9, 2020 at 4:27 p.m.

#17

Thread Starter

Hasbro

Joined: Mar. 2019

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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

To view EW's model i think you have to be a patron subscriber though

Yep.

Even say for those 3 RFAs for three payers it's 2.5M over, Tamp still has to clear out $10 M and needing at least around $1M for every replacement player and minimal cap space.

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Jul. 9, 2020 at 5:49 p.m.

#18

Leafs_and_Sens_Fan

Joined: Jan. 2020

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Quoting: Itchy22

I don't think that's a safe assumption at all.

Cirelli gets 5M and Sergachev gets 5.5M on 3 year deals and that's without an offer sheet.

Jul. 9, 2020 at 5:55 p.m.

#19

Joined: May 2020

Posts: 165

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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

To view EW's model i think you have to be a patron subscriber though[/quo

Saw that - may have to subscribe. Interested to see the model - but I think the new CBA tosses a curve at any modelling done to date. Will see a lot (maybe all???) of bridge contracts for 3 years for RFAs and possibly extended term with lower AAV for UFAs . Will be interesting to see what happens.

Jul. 9, 2020 at 5:57 p.m.

#20