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Late Night Thoughts

Created by: bunnymcfoo
Team: 2020-21 San Jose Sharks
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 21, 2020
Published: Sep. 22, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I've spent a lot of time over the last 9 months trying to figure out what went wrong with the Sharks and how I would progress if I were the GM. I thought about at least 100 different factors and my hockey ideals and then I got really really freaking high and came up with this roster.

Is it perfect? Nope. Is it even close to being realistic? No way in hell. But I think it *is* more or less an outline of the philosophy I think the Sharks should follow, which is “Try and find a few reasonable pieces you can incorporate into the whole for several years, but try to avoid major trades, give your kids time to develop, and for the love of all that is holy stop trading away all our first round picks”

So. First of all, no, I did not address The Goalie Issue. Frankly, I liked the way that both Jones and Dell were playing in February and March, and I liked January too for Dell. I think the long break is going to be good for Jones’s mind, body, and play. I think working with Nabby has been extremely good for both of them, and I’d like to see what further work with him and being away from DeBoer’s pattern of “ride Jones until he dies, then start a cold Dell” can do for their games. And anyway, buying Jones out with the flat cap issue is a terrible idea and we should be able to get Dell cheap. Cheap is good.

I also didn’t do dick with the blue line, except re-sign Heed and make him the 6th D. He shouldn’t cost a lot and I felt like addressing the forwards issue was frankly more pressing. (I know there’s people who think that Merkley should be starting in the NHL but I think that would be a terrible idea. I paid serious attention to him at the prospect’s scrimmage last summer and I’ve watched a truly stupid number of clips of his play with the Knights on youtube and I just don’t think he’s ready for the show. He needs to put on some muscle, and he’s *got* to remember to keep moving after he makes a pass - I think tiime in the AHL is going to be important for him and I hope he gets it.)

Okay! So! The trades! I’m over Sörensen. He didn’t blow my skirt up in 18-19 and he sure as hell didn’t rustle my jimmies last season. But still, he’s an experienced NHLer with one year left on a fairly cheap contract and he’s proven that he can produce decent 3rd line numbers. Suomela still has a decent amount of promise and potential, and Viel could maybe make it? I don’t know, I just want another pick. Gimme prospects to develop!

I think Josh Anderson would be a smart target - Columbus is going to have a hell of a time keeping him *and* giving Dubois the raise he’s earned, and I strongly suspect that they’re going to have to move him to save cap room. I based both the trade and his salary on both the fact that his numbers last season were absolute dogcrap even before he was officially injured in March (do I think he was playing through an injury for the first half of the season? Yes, yes I do.) and that he just had surgery to repair his left shoulder and nobody knows what his play will be like going forward. Will he continue on his trajectory towards 30 goals and 50+ points in a season or will he wind up being more on the “four points in 26 games” path? It’s all a mystery at this point. I think that Columbus would be willing to deal for a couple of decent prospects and a 2nd round pick - given his injury I don’t know that they’d get a 1st for him. All of that said. he is arbitration eligible so I couldn’t go *too* low with his contract - based on his trajectory, injury, and last season 3x3.25 would be reasonable.

Which brings us to Labanc - while his numbers are actually not *that* bad, he had a pretty dramatic fall-off from where he was the season before and he’s still not figuring out how to play any kind of defense. That said, he has a lot of potential and is still pretty great on the PP. He should net a decent return - possibly better than this one, considering what we got for Goodrow :P. (this has been edited based on feedback)

Galchenyuk struggled mightily this last season, but prior to that he was a steady presence in Montreal. Sounds like he had a very Sharky year and here’s hoping for a rebound for us all. I like him, I think he could be a solid middle six winger again, and I based his salary on comparable numbers pulled from this here website.

I absolutely brought Jumbo and Patty back - if they want to play, they play. Ideally, John Leonard would be ready in 21-22 to take Patty’s place on the LW, and I’m confident that at least one of our baby centers will be ready to step up to 3rd line duties by that point. I also brought Melker and Noesen back because that fourth line really clicked towards the end of last season, Noesen was absolutely one of the best parts of last year and we barely had him at all, and Melker is absolutely needed for the PK now that Goodrow is gone. Also I like him. Hush.

ANYWAY. I wrote a novel. Sorry. Comments, critiques, etc etc are welcome - I love feedback on this kind of thing (and I also love mess, which is why I’m a Sharks fan, I guess.)
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$925,000
1$800,000
2$725,000
3$3,250,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,500,000
1$975,000
4$5,200,000
2$800,000
1$1,000,000
1$975,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Heed, Tim
1$960,000
Trades
1.
SJS
  1. Anderson, Josh [RFA Rights]
CBJ
  1. Chekhovich, Ivan
  2. Gambrell, Dylan
  3. 2020 2nd round pick (COL)
2.
SJS
  1. 2020 3rd round pick (FLA)
FLA
  1. Sörensen, Marcus
  2. Suomela, Antti [RFA Rights]
  3. Viel, Jeffrey
  4. 2021 4th round pick (SJS)
3.
SJS
  1. Brännström, Erik
  2. 2020 2nd round pick (OTT)
OTT
  1. Labanc, Kevin [RFA Rights]
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the FLA
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the WSH
2021
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
2022
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$73,676,666$0$815,000$7,823,334
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$8,000,000$8,000,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 7
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$3,000,000$3,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
$5,200,000$5,200,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$5,625,000$5,625,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$3,250,000$3,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 7
$975,000$975,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$1,000,000$1,000,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$836,667$836,667 (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$800,000$800,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$750,000$750,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$975,000$975,000
RW, C
UFA
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$10,000,000$10,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$5,750,000$5,750,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$2,250,000$2,250,000
LD/RD
UFA - 4
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$5,280,000$5,280,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
LD
UFA - 2
Heed, Tim
$960,000$960,000
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$2,500,000$2,500,000
G
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$736,666$736,666 (Performance Bonus$20,000$20K)
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$450,000$450K)
LD/RD, LW
RFA - 2

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Sep. 22, 2020 at 7:05 p.m.
#26
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oh how i suffer
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Quoting: benjgc
Re: Wennberg, he's being paid about $5M and producing like a bottom-6 center. He always seems to show JUST enough to make you think he's ready to take that leap... and then you remember he scored just 15 goals over his last 198 regular season games.


Yeah, but he's also still producing a decent number of assists and that's got value - I just think it's smarter to try and move him while retaining salary. The team would be paying to get him off the books one way or another and trading him away at least gets something in return.

In any case, moving him and, say, Nuti only gains you ~5m and given the 8 RFA contracts that need delt with I'm not sure that'll be enough wiggle room, especially considering that Dubois is arbitration eligible and due for quite a raise.
Sep. 22, 2020 at 7:28 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: bunnymcfoo
Yeah, but he's also still producing a decent number of assists and that's got value - I just think it's smarter to try and move him while retaining salary. The team would be paying to get him off the books one way or another and trading him away at least gets something in return.

In any case, moving him and, say, Nuti only gains you ~5m and given the 8 RFA contracts that need delt with I'm not sure that'll be enough wiggle room, especially considering that Dubois is arbitration eligible and due for quite a raise.


Actually, moving Wenns and Nuti would clear $7.6M off the books. And most of those RFAs can be signed below the burial limit, and Dubinsky being 100% insured means we can easily spend to the cap.
Sep. 22, 2020 at 8:36 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: benjgc
Actually, moving Wenns and Nuti would clear $7.6M off the books. And most of those RFAs can be signed below the burial limit, and Dubinsky being 100% insured means we can easily spend to the cap.


Sure, if you can move Wenny for his full 4.9 and Nuti for his full 2.7 (you could absolutely move Nuti for that) but I'm skeptical on Wenny. I think he's a damn fine 3rd line center, but he's definitely being paid to produce on a 2nd line level and that's just not gonna happen for him. He was always going to be a "pass first" kind of player - and there's nothing wrong with that! Joe Thornton has had an amazing career being a high passing center! - but I think that hit from Wilson damaged his confidence and he's been a much more timid player in the last 2 seasons.

I don't think that he'd be impossible to move, like, at all, but I do think that there would have to be around $2 million in salary reserved for a trade to happen with him, and that cuts your margin of $7 million down to $5 million, and that gives you around $12 million for 8 contracts to sign this season - and that's assuming that the club is willing to spend to the cap, which I'm by no means certain of considering that it's not a rich club, McConnell is super wealthy but not rolling in billions, and they're already making hard payroll decisions with coaching bonuses. Dubois is going to get around $6 million - bet on it. The comparables to his production are Horvat and Forsberg and in my opinion he's better than either of them when it comes to showing up during the playoffs - and he's younger than either of them. His ceiling is so high and he's gonna be a stud for the Jackets for a long, long time. Even with the flat cap, I'd bet he gets somewhere between $5.5 and $6.5 and if he doesn't he needs a better agent.

Annnyway, I think that y'all are moving Anderson and I think that he's worth a 2nd and a couple of decent to good picks or a 3rd. I love the dude, but that injury was bad and I think he'll be prone to being breakable after this. God knows that CBJ is used to dealing with broken players (looking at you, Ryan Murray) but Jarmo is smart enough that I'm putting my money on him not wanting to risk an injury prone player making $3-$4 million a year.
Sep. 22, 2020 at 8:45 p.m.
#29
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Edited Sep. 22, 2020 at 10:31 p.m.
Quoting: gegemoroo
I think you overvalued Galchenyuk a lot, since most of scouts have him at ''don't even think about him'' category. I think Galch would be great to have as a tryout but in like 2,3mil max.

Erik Brännström trade was random in my opinion, since I don't think Ottawa will do that.
Even though great potential, we have a future top 2-4 RD already cooking.

I would keep Labanc. Young, potential and wants to play here in any situation (based on last year paycheck) He has his flaws, but so did the Sharks last year.
I've always rooted for the guys that give that extra little interest in playing in a certain team, even if it means getting payed **** money.
Also guy who can rack up 4 points (1g 3a) in a game 7 against VGK in third period is not a guy you want to give up on yet. (oh the memories)

Anderson is great addition. I believe that he can give that extra punch to this team for the future.


Argh, why do my phone and capfriendly occasionally conspire to delete what I'm typing??? Ugh. ANYWAY.

I'm not nearly as sold on Merkley as everyone else seems to be - as I said, I've seen him play in person and watched a **** ton of footage of him and while his offensive upside could be massive, his defense is severely lacking and that's a problem for me when it comes to, you know, defensemen. He's also got a tendency to make a pass and then just, like, stop skating, which he obviously will need to stop doing, and he's small and easy to push off the puck. I think he's going to need at least a season in the AHL to develop and address those issues, and frankly I'd like options. We don't have much besides him in the pipeline for RD - almost all our defense prospects are LD, including Pasichnuk - and that worries me as a fan of both the Sharks and Barracuda.

I love Labanc. I gave a LOT of consideration to buying his jersey after game 7 (ultimately I spent that money - and a lot more - on a tattoo and have no regrets) and I appreciate his commitment to the Sharks organization. I also appreciate his potential. That said, at this point in time he hasn't proved that he can effectively play above the 3rd line and we desperately need to fill in our top 6. I think Anderson is a better risk, all things considered. I'm betting that someone would be willing to give us a solid prospect and a high second for Bancer, even if it's not Ottawa.

I will conceed that I should reconsider the Gally deal as everyone thinks that's a massive overpay (in my defense, I was very high when I pulled this together and I'm actually impressed it makes any sense at all!) but even if I cut that salary down to, like, $2.5 - $3 million for 2 years that doesn't give me enough to keep Labanc, since I think he's gonna get $3.5 to $4.5 million.

P.S. I love your pfp! I'm not quite ready to stop wearing my Pavs jersey, but I suspect that by the time I feel safe going to live games again I'll be ready to get a Ferraro one.
Sep. 22, 2020 at 9:19 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: bunnymcfoo
Sure, if you can move Wenny for his full 4.9 and Nuti for his full 2.7 (you could absolutely move Nuti for that) but I'm skeptical on Wenny. I think he's a damn fine 3rd line center, but he's definitely being paid to produce on a 2nd line level and that's just not gonna happen for him. He was always going to be a "pass first" kind of player - and there's nothing wrong with that! Joe Thornton has had an amazing career being a high passing center! - but I think that hit from Wilson damaged his confidence and he's been a much more timid player in the last 2 seasons.

I don't think that he'd be impossible to move, like, at all, but I do think that there would have to be around $2 million in salary reserved for a trade to happen with him, and that cuts your margin of $7 million down to $5 million, and that gives you around $12 million for 8 contracts to sign this season - and that's assuming that the club is willing to spend to the cap, which I'm by no means certain of considering that it's not a rich club, McConnell is super wealthy but not rolling in billions, and they're already making hard payroll decisions with coaching bonuses. Dubois is going to get around $6 million - bet on it. The comparables to his production are Horvat and Forsberg and in my opinion he's better than either of them when it comes to showing up during the playoffs - and he's younger than either of them. His ceiling is so high and he's gonna be a stud for the Jackets for a long, long time. Even with the flat cap, I'd bet he gets somewhere between $5.5 and $6.5 and if he doesn't he needs a better agent.

Annnyway, I think that y'all are moving Anderson and I think that he's worth a 2nd and a couple of decent to good picks or a 3rd. I love the dude, but that injury was bad and I think he'll be prone to being breakable after this. God knows that CBJ is used to dealing with broken players (looking at you, Ryan Murray) but Jarmo is smart enough that I'm putting my money on him not wanting to risk an injury prone player making $3-$4 million a year.


If Dubois ONLY gets $6M, I'll call that a massive win for the Blue Jackets. To sign him for 8 seasons (which would be my ideal scenario), I'd be willing to pay up to $8.5M, honestly. But a 3 year, $6M AAV deal would be pretty workable, too, since it would allow the Blue Jackets to have another RFA deal with him and help reset the market once the world gets back to normal.
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Sep. 22, 2020 at 10:30 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: benjgc
If Dubois ONLY gets $6M, I'll call that a massive win for the Blue Jackets. To sign him for 8 seasons (which would be my ideal scenario), I'd be willing to pay up to $8.5M, honestly. But a 3 year, $6M AAV deal would be pretty workable, too, since it would allow the Blue Jackets to have another RFA deal with him and help reset the market once the world gets back to normal.


I really do think that we're extremely likely to see some bridge deals for big RFA names. Barzal, Deangelo, Dubois, Kubalik, and Cirelli are all coming off elcs and I don't think any of their teams have the cap space or wiggle room to give them what they've really earned without moving other also valuable pieces and getting a little bit lucky.

Three years at $6 to $6.5 with the knowledge that you'll get another raise when things are more normal and the cap is going back up isn't all that bad, especially if you don't want to play on a team where they had to move other valuable players and made the team weaker, you know?
Sep. 24, 2020 at 12:13 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: bunnymcfoo
Argh, why do my phone and capfriendly occasionally conspire to delete what I'm typing??? Ugh. ANYWAY.

I'm not nearly as sold on Merkley as everyone else seems to be - as I said, I've seen him play in person and watched a **** ton of footage of him and while his offensive upside could be massive, his defense is severely lacking and that's a problem for me when it comes to, you know, defensemen. He's also got a tendency to make a pass and then just, like, stop skating, which he obviously will need to stop doing, and he's small and easy to push off the puck. I think he's going to need at least a season in the AHL to develop and address those issues, and frankly I'd like options. We don't have much besides him in the pipeline for RD - almost all our defense prospects are LD, including Pasichnuk - and that worries me as a fan of both the Sharks and Barracuda.

I love Labanc. I gave a LOT of consideration to buying his jersey after game 7 (ultimately I spent that money - and a lot more - on a tattoo and have no regrets) and I appreciate his commitment to the Sharks organization. I also appreciate his potential. That said, at this point in time he hasn't proved that he can effectively play above the 3rd line and we desperately need to fill in our top 6. I think Anderson is a better risk, all things considered. I'm betting that someone would be willing to give us a solid prospect and a high second for Bancer, even if it's not Ottawa.

I will conceed that I should reconsider the Gally deal as everyone thinks that's a massive overpay (in my defense, I was very high when I pulled this together and I'm actually impressed it makes any sense at all!) but even if I cut that salary down to, like, $2.5 - $3 million for 2 years that doesn't give me enough to keep Labanc, since I think he's gonna get $3.5 to $4.5 million.

P.S. I love your pfp! I'm not quite ready to stop wearing my Pavs jersey, but I suspect that by the time I feel safe going to live games again I'll be ready to get a Ferraro one.


Thanks for the reply!

Now that you have made some nice points about Merkley and have made some research on him you got my interest. I have to admit I have not made that much effort on Merkley.
Just the usual hype about him bringing the points, but not being that defensive. In my mind I always had this vision of Ferraro and Merkley pair in 2-3 years making some teams look silly.
Have you thought about Merkley for Brännström+ trade maybe?



Labanc is a high risk high reward, and I agree that he hasn't really sealed that top 6 just yet. I don't really know what to do with him yet.
Agree on Anderson, would love to check him out on Teal.

Thanks, I love me some Ferraro 8-)
 
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