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22-23 Outlook Minor Changes

Created by: tp47
Team: 2022-23 Colorado Avalanche
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 6, 2020
Published: Oct. 6, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Was curious what the team could look like in a couple years without any major moves.

I think the questionable things are:
1) Does Sakic bring back Kadri after his contract / is Newhook ready for 2C?
2) I put Makar on a 3x7M bridge after 20-21. Figured it could be structured like the RFAs of last year, where the 3rd year ends high for a high QO. We'll see if he goes that route or a larger $, longer contract.
3) What will the goalie situation look like? Can Grubauer stay healthy?
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
2$925,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$2,500,000
3$4,750,000
2$1,500,000
2$1,000,000
4$3,500,000
2$7,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
7$7,500,000
3$4,000,000
4$6,000,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
6th D, UFA
3$2,500,000
7th D, UFA
1$1,300,000
4th line wing, UFA
1$1,500,000
Trades
1.
COL
  1. Killorn, Alex
  2. 2021 5th round pick (TBL)
Additional Details:
Pick is conditional on Timmins playing 40 NHL games in 20-21 season.
TBL
  1. Timmins, Conor [RFA Rights]
  2. 2021 3rd round pick (COL)
2.
COL
    Seattle expansion draft.
    ANA
    1. Compher, J.T.
    Additional Details:
    Could also be Graves or Donskoi.
    3.
    COL
      Picks, prospects.
      ANA
      1. Jost, Tyson [RFA Rights]
      2. Zadorov, Nikita [RFA Rights]
      Additional Details:
      Done before or during 20-21 season.
      DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
      2021
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the TBL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      2022
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      2023
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      Logo of the COL
      ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
      22$83,000,000$81,538,333$25,000$3,050,000$1,461,667
      Left WingCentreRight Wing
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $7,500,000$7,500,000
      LW, C
      UFA - 7
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $6,300,000$6,300,000
      C
      NMC
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $9,250,000$9,250,000
      RW, C
      UFA - 3
      Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
      $4,450,000$4,450,000
      RW, LW
      M-NTC
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $6,000,000$6,000,000
      C
      UFA - 7
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $4,750,000$4,750,000
      RW, LW
      UFA - 5
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $3,500,000$3,500,000
      RW, LW
      UFA - 8
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $925,000$925,000
      C, LW
      RFA - 1
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $3,900,000$3,900,000
      RW
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $1,500,000$1,500,000
      C
      RFA - 1
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
      RW
      RFA - 1
      4th line wing, UFA
      $1,500,000$1,500,000
      Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $2,500,000$2,500,000
      LD
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $7,000,000$7,000,000
      RD
      UFA - 5
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $4,000,000$4,000,000
      G
      UFA - 5
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $5,000,000$5,000,000
      LD/RD
      UFA - 5
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $6,000,000$6,000,000
      RD
      M-NTC, NMC
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $880,833$880,833 (Performance Bonus$125,000$125K)
      G
      RFA - 1
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
      LD/RD
      RFA - 1
      6th D, UFA
      $2,500,000$2,500,000
      ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
      7th D, UFA
      $1,300,000$1,300,000
      Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
      $1,000,000$1,000,000
      RW, LW
      UFA - 3

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      Oct. 6, 2020 at 2:42 p.m.
      #1
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      thats a massive over pay for kilorn
      Foppa21 liked this.
      Oct. 6, 2020 at 2:57 p.m.
      #2
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      Quoting: coga16
      thats a massive over pay for kilorn


      I would've agreed until Timmins got hurt again after 1.5 playoff games. I do think it's an overpay, but don't think it's massive anymore.

      Timmins' concussion history makes me nervous. He's certainly NHL-ready, but he's only played 4 NHL games. Killorn has rarely been injured throughout his career, is a proven mid-6 winger and is on a solid contract for a few more years.
      Oct. 6, 2020 at 3:01 p.m.
      #3
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      Quoting: tp47
      I would've agreed until Timmins got hurt again after 1.5 playoff games. I do think it's an overpay, but don't think it's massive anymore.

      Timmins' concussion history makes me nervous. He's certainly NHL-ready, but he's only played 4 NHL games. Killorn has rarely been injured throughout his career, is a proven mid-6 winger and is on a solid contract for a few more years.


      Timmins is fine, he didnt get a concussion in the playoffs. Its been confirmed by the all avs beat writers hes healthy and fine.
      chances are he reaggravated the shoulder injury he had in the AHL this season.
      Oct. 6, 2020 at 3:08 p.m.
      #4
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      Quoting: coga16
      Timmins is fine, he didnt get a concussion in the playoffs. Its been confirmed by the all avs beat writers hes healthy and fine.
      chances are he reaggravated the shoulder injury he had in the AHL this season.


      Where did you see that it's confirmed he didn't have a concussion? All I had seen was that Timmins' agent said "I just talked to Conor, and he told me he’s feeling much better". Even if he recovered quickly, it's not great if he's going to be concussion-prone for years. Colorado doesn't need more years ravaged by injuries.
      Oct. 6, 2020 at 3:11 p.m.
      #5
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      Quoting: tp47
      Where did you see that it's confirmed he didn't have a concussion? All I had seen was that Timmins' agent said "I just talked to Conor, and he told me he’s feeling much better". Even if he recovered quickly, it's not great if he's going to be concussion-prone for years. Colorado doesn't need more years ravaged by injuries.


      DNVR just mentioned it on his podcast yesterday when someone asked about it, said he was fine and there is no issues
      tp47 liked this.
      Oct. 6, 2020 at 3:20 p.m.
      #6
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      Quoting: coga16
      DNVR just mentioned it on his podcast yesterday when someone asked about it, said he was fine and there is no issues


      That's good to know. So yeah, with that context, it's a big overpay. Hopefully he & Johnson can stay healthy.

      Timmins could be swapped out for Jost or picks from Jost/Zadorov trades then.
      Oct. 6, 2020 at 3:27 p.m.
      #7
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      Quoting: tp47
      That's good to know. So yeah, with that context, it's a big overpay. Hopefully he & Johnson can stay healthy.

      Timmins could be swapped out for Jost or picks from Jost/Zadorov trades then.


      Im just at the mindframe that Timmins is not an expendable asset yet. They need him to fill a very specific long term need of a guy they can eat heavy minutes with this Dcore. Just an all around Dman.
      Jost and a 3rd for Killorn is the most I would want them to go, I just think there are better options in adding a 2nd line winger out there so they dont need to over pay or be in a rush to get him.
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      Oct. 6, 2020 at 4:17 p.m.
      #8
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      I go back and forth on Killorn - I hope Joe is considering him but also looks at every option available.

      Only $30MM available the following year with 11 players signed. Just signed Mac so there's $12-13 mil out the door. Now I have $17-18MM to sign 9-10 more players (that's an average of $1.7-2MM per player). And I've got Makar to re-sign to an even bigger deal, hopefully long-term, in 2 years. Looks like giving 30 y/o Kadri a raise on a 4-year deal was maybe a mistake when I've got 20 y/o Newhook to play 2C on an entry level deal. Would be nice to have that $5MM. And that is a lot of money and term to give to Nuke. I guess the cap might have gone up a little at that point so maybe it can work but it's going to get hairy.
      Oct. 6, 2020 at 4:50 p.m.
      #9
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      Quoting: NMAvsFan
      I go back and forth on Killorn - I hope Joe is considering him but also looks at every option available.

      Only $30MM available the following year with 11 players signed. Just signed Mac so there's $12-13 mil out the door. Now I have $17-18MM to sign 9-10 more players (that's an average of $1.7-2MM per player). And I've got Makar to re-sign to an even bigger deal, hopefully long-term, in 2 years. Looks like giving 30 y/o Kadri a raise on a 4-year deal was maybe a mistake when I've got 20 y/o Newhook to play 2C on an entry level deal. Would be nice to have that $5MM. And that is a lot of money and term to give to Nuke. I guess the cap might have gone up a little at that point so maybe it can work but it's going to get hairy.


      Yeah the Kadri/Newhook situation was my #1 question I put in the description. Guess we'll see how well each of them play in the years before. I structured the Landy/Grub/Kadri/Nuke contracts like they all had no drop off (or further improved) over the next two seasons. Kadri would be 32 for the 22-23 season, so the contract is definitely on the high side. I think Nuke gets 2x1.5-2.5MM this offseason.

      Think you missed LOC in your count - it's 12 players. And I believe Byram's contract would slide if he doesn't make the team this year, so that would make it 7-8 players to sign with $16-17MM. Still tight, but may be doable depending on ELCs. The big question is how much the cap will end up changing.
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      Oct. 6, 2020 at 5:03 p.m.
      #10
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      Quoting: tp47
      Yeah the Kadri/Newhook situation was my #1 question I put in the description. Guess we'll see how well each of them play in the years before. I structured the Landy/Grub/Kadri/Nuke contracts like they all had no drop off (or further improved) over the next two seasons. Kadri would be 32 for the 22-23 season, so the contract is definitely on the high side. I think Nuke gets 2x1.5-2.5MM this offseason.

      Think you missed LOC in your count - it's 12 players. And I believe Byram's contract would slide if he doesn't make the team this year, so that would make it 7-8 players to sign with $16-17MM. Still tight, but may be doable depending on ELCs. The big question is how much the cap will end up changing.


      I was just going off the count in the Long-Term Outlook tab under roster size but I guess if you move O'Connor to the roster, it helps ever so slightly. I know cap gets tight on contending teams once they have their core in place but I just can't see giving Kadri a raise at that age with Newhook coming in. They really do have to get as much as possible out of their high-end young guys to make all of this work because they've got their high-end roster players already here. Joe and the front office are going to need to earn every penny they're paid over the next 7-10 years if this team is to stay competitive. It makes you really respect what these guys have to do and how much they have to know and how much of a calculated risk they are willing to take to get to this level. I'd be stressed out all the time if I were in their shoes.
      tp47 liked this.
       
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