I made an airmchair GM a while back, and while the Oilers did sign Kahun since then, which was something I recommended, I still think the team can get better.
I get the feeling that I'm underpaying for a lot of these players, but I guess COVID has seriously taken a toll on what players are worth, so I'll roll with it.
My PP formation:
LW = Net
C = Bumper
RW = Right halfwall
LD = Left halfwall
RD = D
Like last time, if they don't have a NMC in their contracts, I'm going to be ruthless with sending them down to clear capspace. I know I got a lot of stick last time for having Neal in the minors instead of just buying him out. The eventual plan is to buy Neal out, but if we can afford to keep him on the books for this season (We can), then we should do so in order to shave 1 season off his buyout.
Now to explain everything. the on the PP I have Caleb Jones instead of Tyson Barrie. Tyson Barrie's isolated PP impact has been close to negative over the last 3 seasons, and I'd rather have Caleb Jones because it keeps the puck off Barrie's stick and on McDavid, RNH, Draisaitl's stick. The 2nd unit is a crapshoot anyways, just stick whatever guys on there. I don't really care tbh, they never play.
Obviously, I see the problems with our PK. We don't have any PKers on this team. However, I'm of the belief that better 5v5 play will outweigh the 4 minutes a game we need to kill penalties. So our PK is in full "stop the bleeding" mode. Maybe Haas, JP, or Nygard can be elite penalty killers?
We've upgraded everywhere, except for RD, which is up for debate. I can't say with certainty that Jan Rutta is better than Adam Larsson or vice versa. What I can say is that at 900k, Jan Rutta is better value for money than Adam Larsson at 4.17M. Plus Adam Larsson has a much higher perceived value than Jan Rutta. So Larsson can and should be used to recoup some of our lost picks in the upcoming drafts.
This shouldn't just apply to Adam Larsson. I feel confident enough in the depth guys we signed to league minimum (Lennstrom, Quine, Griffith, PRussell, etc) to where I'd look to trade any of the following guys if a team is willing to take them on for even a conditional 7th:
Archibald
Neal
Smith
Khaira
KRussel
Chiasson (Would like more though)
I know we extended Russell for expansion purposes, but if we sign Koekkoek to a 2 year deal, this won't be an issue any more.
Lastly, in goal, Ryan Miller. Look, we all watched Mike Smith play last season, so I don't know why some people on twitter are convinced that Mike Smith is better than Ryan Miller. Last 2 seasons:
You said we upgraded everywhere except RD. We swapped out benning and added Barrie as much as I do really like benning that’s a significant step forward.
We didn’t do anything on the left side but no real need to do so with jones requiring ice time this season so as much as klef situation sucks it couldn’t have came up at a better time. Russell was extended to meet requirements for expansion but 0% gets taken. Seems Holland did his homework on the goalie front and willing to bet Miller was looked at and didn’t sign assuming there’s a reason why he went back to smith which I don’t see as a problem was alright last season and do like his personality around the team one of the more outspoken players with loads of experience. I wouldn’t sign koekkoek at this stage we currently have room for one of Lagesson who I’m actually very interested in seeing or Bouchard.
Pretty sure Miller wants to stay in SoCal. If he can't get a contract in that region he'll probably just retire. I can't see him moving his family to Edmonton for just 1 season and not a lot of money.
And Drake Caggiula again? Didn't Oilers fans learn from last time?
You said we upgraded everywhere except RD. We swapped out benning and added Barrie as much as I do really like benning that’s a significant step forward.
We didn’t do anything on the left side but no real need to do so with jones requiring ice time this season so as much as klef situation sucks it couldn’t have came up at a better time. Russell was extended to meet requirements for expansion but 0% gets taken. Seems Holland did his homework on the goalie front and willing to bet Miller was looked at and didn’t sign assuming there’s a reason why he went back to smith which I don’t see as a problem was alright last season and do like his personality around the team one of the more outspoken players with loads of experience. I wouldn’t sign koekkoek at this stage we currently have room for one of Lagesson who I’m actually very interested in seeing or Bouchard.
What I should've said is "I upgraded everywhere except RD"
Pretty sure Miller wants to stay in SoCal. If he can't get a contract in that region he'll probably just retire. I can't see him moving his family to Edmonton for just 1 season and not a lot of money.
And Drake Caggiula again? Didn't Oilers fans learn from last time?
Ruuta is NOT a top-4 defenseman.
Caggiula is an upgrade on Chiasson.
According to Chris Johnston, we were deciding between Miller and Smith, we made the wrong decision.
Rutta can play bottom pairing then. Move Barrie up.
Sure, and Larsson. He's a bona fide top-4 defender. Leave Ruuta in the pressbox.
In the last 3 seasons, Drake has outproduced Chiasson 5v5 while playing a lot less games (6 more 5v5 points in 37 less games to be exact). While Chiasson's defensive impact is slightly better, it's not enough to offset Caggiula's offensive impact. And we need offensive impact in our bottom 6, as Haas and Nygard are among the best in the league in terms of defensive impact.
I genuinely don't understand this site's man crush on Adam Larsson, and I certainly don't understand other GM's crushes on him, but I sure as hell would like to abuse it. Larsson is above average defensively, but is such an offensive black hole that his defensive impact means nothing. He has a 5v5 +/- of -41(!!!!) in the last 2 seasons. And an expected 5v5 +/- of -8. Rutta, on the contrary has a 5v5 +/- of +16 and an expected 5v5 +/- of +3. Significantly better than Larsson.
Like I said earlier, I don't understand why any GM would value Larsson, but if there's a market for him (there is), then we should look to trade him. We'll recoup our lost assets, we'll shed $3.2M in cap, and we'll very possibly upgrade at the RD spot
In the last 3 seasons, Drake has outproduced Chiasson 5v5 while playing a lot less games (6 more 5v5 points in 37 less games to be exact). While Chiasson's defensive impact is slightly better, it's not enough to offset Caggiula's offensive impact. And we need offensive impact in our bottom 6, as Haas and Nygard are among the best in the league in terms of defensive impact.
Cagguila's goal differential over the past 3 years: 84-103 [-19 or 44.9 GF%]. On-ice scoring rates: 2.61 GF/60 - 3.21 GA/60 = -0.60 G/60
Chiasson's goal differential over the past 3 years: 75-77 [-2 or 49.3 GF%]. On-ice scoring rates: 2.03 GF/60 - 2.08 GA/60 = -0.05 G/60
Cagguila isn't better.
Quoting: AdnacOil
I genuinely don't understand this site's man crush on Adam Larsson, and I certainly don't understand other GM's crushes on him, but I sure as hell would like to abuse it. Larsson is above average defensively, but is such an offensive black hole that his defensive impact means nothing. He has a 5v5 +/- of -41(!!!!) in the last 2 seasons. And an expected 5v5 +/- of -8. Rutta, on the contrary has a 5v5 +/- of +16 and an expected 5v5 +/- of +3. Significantly better than Larsson.
Like I said earlier, I don't understand why any GM would value Larsson, but if there's a market for him (there is), then we should look to trade him. We'll recoup our lost assets, we'll shed $3.2M in cap, and we'll very possibly upgrade at the RD spot
You clearly don't understand the impact of QoC. Some players can be trusted to defend against the opposition's best players and some can't. Larsson has had some struggles the past few years (injury, bereavement) but seems to be healthy now. He isn't going to be a healthy scratch to make way for Journeyman-Jan. There isn't a single NHL coach that would do that.
Cagguila's goal differential over the past 3 years: 84-103 [-19 or 44.9 GF%]. On-ice scoring rates: 2.61 GF/60 - 3.21 GA/60 = -0.60 G/60
Chiasson's goal differential over the past 3 years: 75-77 [-2 or 49.3 GF%]. On-ice scoring rates: 2.03 GF/60 - 2.08 GA/60 = -0.05 G/60
Cagguila isn't better.
You clearly don't understand the impact of QoC. Some players can be trusted to defend against the opposition's best players and some can't. Larsson has had some struggles the past few years (injury, bereavement) but seems to be healthy now. He isn't going to be a healthy scratch to make way for Journeyman-Jan. There isn't a single NHL coach that would do that.
I'll humor with the QoC by looking at Larsson's stats against elite comp (according to PuckIQ). In the last 2 seasons, Larsson is 11th of our dmen in DFF% vs Elite comp. That's below noted "studs" like Joel Persson, Chris Wideman, Brandon Manning, Kevin Gravel, Jason Garrison, and Matt Benning. 11th again in CF% vs elite comp. 9th in GF% vs elite comp.
I'll humor with the QoC by looking at Larsson's stats against elite comp (according to PuckIQ). In the last 2 seasons, Larsson is 11th of our dmen in DFF% vs Elite comp. That's below noted "studs" like Joel Persson, Chris Wideman, Brandon Manning, Kevin Gravel, Jason Garrison, and Matt Benning. 11th again in CF% vs elite comp. 9th in GF% vs elite comp.
Real keeper there. Can't afford to lose him.
Now look at their faceoffs/60 and zone starts. Context. It matters.
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