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AdnacOil

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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 21, 2021 at 4:45 p.m.
Thread: Dont Spend on Bottom 6
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>uphere</b></div><div>Lagesson is exempt from the expansion draft because he doesn't have enough NHL games played. He needs to get into 10 more, which seems unlikely at this point.

A lot rides on how the NHL views Klefbom's situation. He hasn't played in over a year, and if the NHL decides that his career is in jeopardy because of his shoulder issues then he will not be available for the expansion draft and Edmonton will not be required to protect him. I don't recall the NHL ever making a decision in favor of the Oilers, so it seems likely Holland will have to decide whether or not to protect Klefbom. But if I am wrong, and the NHL decides Klefbom's prognosis is poor, then Holland will be in a pretty good position.

As things stand at the moment, if the NHL does Holland a favor then Seattle may have to choose from Neal, Turris, Kassian, and Kris Russell... of those, I am going to guess that Kassian would be Seattle's choice. The list changes is Holland comes to terms with either or both of RNH and Larsson before they hit the UFA market. Signing RNH will likely result in Archibald being exposed in the draft. Signing Larsson will result in Jones being exposed.

I think securing RHN under reasonable contract terms is well worth the possibility of losing Archibald, and I feel the same way about securing Larsson under reasonable contract terms at the expense of quite likely losing Jones. The catch is that the either, or both of RNH and Larsson might price themselves out of Edmonton.

Another possible move Holland might make is leaving Koskinen exposed and protecting Stalock. I think that is very unlikely to occur, unless Holland feels he has the inside track on signing a guy like Dreidger or Ullmark, and possibly bringing back Smith on another one-year value deal.

Its all speculation, but that's what makes it interesting.</div></div>

Lagesson isn't exempt

I'm protecting Jones regardless of Larsson's contract situation

And I protect Skinner in the expansion draft
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 10, 2020 at 10:20 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 26, 2020 at 3:00 p.m.
Thread: Still not satisfied
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Cagguila's goal differential over the past 3 years: 84-103 [-19 or 44.9 GF%]. On-ice scoring rates: 2.61 GF/60 - 3.21 GA/60 = -0.60 G/60
Chiasson's goal differential over the past 3 years: 75-77 [-2 or 49.3 GF%]. On-ice scoring rates: 2.03 GF/60 - 2.08 GA/60 = -0.05 G/60

Cagguila isn't better.



You clearly don't understand the impact of QoC. Some players can be trusted to defend against the opposition's best players and some can't. Larsson has had some struggles the past few years (injury, bereavement) but seems to be healthy now. He isn't going to be a healthy scratch to make way for Journeyman-Jan. There isn't a single NHL coach that would do that.</div></div>

I'll humor with the QoC by looking at Larsson's stats against elite comp (according to PuckIQ). In the last 2 seasons, Larsson is 11th of our dmen in DFF% vs Elite comp. That's below noted "studs" like Joel Persson, Chris Wideman, Brandon Manning, Kevin Gravel, Jason Garrison, and Matt Benning. 11th again in CF% vs elite comp. 9th in GF% vs elite comp.

Real keeper there. Can't afford to lose him.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 16, 2020 at 6:00 p.m.
Thread: Still not satisfied
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>No, he isn't.


Sure, and Larsson. He's a bona fide top-4 defender. Leave Ruuta in the pressbox.</div></div>

In the last 3 seasons, Drake has outproduced Chiasson 5v5 while playing a lot less games (6 more 5v5 points in 37 less games to be exact). While Chiasson's defensive impact is slightly better, it's not enough to offset Caggiula's offensive impact. And we need offensive impact in our bottom 6, as Haas and Nygard are among the best in the league in terms of defensive impact.

I genuinely don't understand this site's man crush on Adam Larsson, and I certainly don't understand other GM's crushes on him, but I sure as hell would like to abuse it. Larsson is above average defensively, but is such an offensive black hole that his defensive impact means nothing. He has a 5v5 +/- of -41(!!!!) in the last 2 seasons. And an expected 5v5 +/- of -8. Rutta, on the contrary has a 5v5 +/- of +16 and an expected 5v5 +/- of +3. Significantly better than Larsson.

Like I said earlier, I don't understand why any GM would value Larsson, but if there's a market for him (there is), then we should look to trade him. We'll recoup our lost assets, we'll shed $3.2M in cap, and we'll very possibly upgrade at the RD spot
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 16, 2020 at 2:48 p.m.
Thread: Still not satisfied
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmah007</b></div><div>You said we upgraded everywhere except RD. We swapped out benning and added Barrie as much as I do really like benning that’s a significant step forward.
We didn’t do anything on the left side but no real need to do so with jones requiring ice time this season so as much as klef situation sucks it couldn’t have came up at a better time. Russell was extended to meet requirements for expansion but 0% gets taken. Seems Holland did his homework on the goalie front and willing to bet Miller was looked at and didn’t sign assuming there’s a reason why he went back to smith which I don’t see as a problem was alright last season and do like his personality around the team one of the more outspoken players with loads of experience. I wouldn’t sign koekkoek at this stage we currently have room for one of Lagesson who I’m actually very interested in seeing or Bouchard.</div></div>

What I should've said is "I upgraded everywhere except RD"
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 31, 2020 at 7:33 p.m.
Thread: Salvaging our bad offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>While I no longer advocate the extension of Adam Larsson, to discount the role he plays on this team is disingenuous at best: he is Edmonton's strongest defensive option on the blueline and eats a myriad of minutes. There's value in having him paired with Jones for this season: Edmonton's going to be running a very young blueline for the foreseeable future and maximizing how much Adam can pass onto guys like Jones and Bear before he leaves has value. If you trade Larsson, the structure of the blueline as a whole crumbles: you either end up with Bear playing 24+ minutes a night or Russell playing more than 16. I don't think he's by far the most optimal name Edmonton could be employing, but given that there's but a year left on his deal, he's far from being the primary issue this team had last year. A healthy Larsson is a legitimate top-4 option. The only caveat is that he needs to be healthy.

Burying Neal makes no sense at all, short or long-term. You only gain a hair over a million dollars in cap flexibility: fundamentally it makes more sense to bite the bullet on a buyout and take on more cap savings for success now despite the three extra years of his $2M buyout hit. You appear to have tried to find a middle ground, but only found an inferior option. The play is to pay another team to take (at minimum) 50% of his deal or buy him out. Maybe this season, maybe next, but burying him shouldn't be the primary option. Even Montreal saw the light in an Alzner buyout.

Bouchard doesn't need to be in the NHL this season. An extra year of development isn't hurting him.</div></div>

I advocate for Bouchard to play, but Larsson hasn't been moved. If you all insist that a 30% 5v5 GF% dman needs to play, he will fit under the cap with Bouchard in the minors.

Burying Neal makes a lot of sense. We can fit him under the cap this season, so by burying him this season, we shave 1 year off his eventual buyout if we choose to do so. Buying him out next season has us on the hook until 2025 instead of 2026. But yes, I agree that paying another team to take him at 50% retention is the best move. I just didn't want to speculate too much on trades. I wanted this to be centralized around what we can do on our own account.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 31, 2020 at 7:29 p.m.