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Forums/Armchair-GM

Keep it simple

Created by: Juice
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 6, 2021
Published: Apr. 7, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I can't see any major type move being made. This team is rolling quite nicely and is probably looking at just 1-2 supplemental adds. I think Foligno will be the focus but a guy like Wood could be a fallback if the ask or cap space can work out.

I can see another minor deal just to add a depth d-man.

Defense: I wouldn't change much on the back end. I think the 3 pairings have built chemistry together and it's tough to bring someone new in at the end of the year and expect he'll give us more than what we have right now. If there's a vet we can bring in as a 6th/7th/8th d-man just for injury depth, and to give some guys a night off ( basically a lehtonen replacement) I'd feel more comfortable.

Tending: I don't think we make a move here, either. We have such little space for this TDL and next year. Plus, if we can get a healthy and rested Freddy and a red hot Campbell tandem, why spend assets and space unless there's a major setback between now and next week?

Forwards: From what I can see, Keefe's biggest issue used to be finding a winger for Tavares and Nylander. Now that Galchenyuk has taken that spot, the next biggest issue appears trying to clone Zach Hyman. I think Keefe would prefer to have him on the 3rd line with Engvall and Mikheyev but Matthews/Marner seem to struggle when Hyman is taken off the line.

To be honest, I think we'd be okay sticking with what we have. As a 3rd/4th line guy, Kerfoot has a little bit of skill and grit combo. But if you can add a heart-on-his-sleeve type of guy, there's two guys I'd focus in on: Nick Foligno and Myles Wood.
Obviously one would be a premium acquisition and the other a depth add, but Dubas has cut deals with both GM's recently so it wouldn't surprise me to believe if he had an idea of what each player costs and he's just waiting to see what the health of his goaltenders are before using up the remaining cap. Another possible name could be the return of Connor Brown.
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. Wood, Miles ($1,000,000 retained)
NJD
  1. Barabanov, Alexander
  2. 2021 2nd round pick (TOR)
2.
TOR
  1. Foligno, Nick ($2,750,000 retained)
CBJ
  1. Amirov, Rodion [Reserve List]
  2. Kerfoot, Alexander
  3. 2022 1st round pick (TOR)
3.
TOR
  1. Oleksiak, Jamie ($1,068,750 retained)
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2023
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
20$81,500,000$76,249,741$0$0$5,250,259
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
-$1,375,000-$1,375,000
LW, C, RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,050,000$1,050,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,645,000$1,645,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$1,750,000$1,750,000
LW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,650,000$1,650,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$874,125$874,125
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
Logo of the Dallas Stars
$1,068,750$1,068,750 ($0$0$0$0)
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000 ($175,000$175K$175,000$175K)
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$725,000$725,000 ($0$0$0$0)
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$805,833$805,833 ($0$0$0$0) (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000 ($0$0$0$0)
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0)
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0)
LD
UFA - 1

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Apr. 7, 2021 at 12:13 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: Juice
bruh...if you want to call my opinions silly and insane...don't get so sensitive if I toss a very soft insult back. You seem the need to write plainly obvious comments like "don't overpay if you don't have to". Terrific insight. Thanks. I know the coffee is hot.

You and I don't know the asking price and yet you seem super confident that you know simply due to economics.

But you're not dealing with simple economics 101 here...there's a very real human factor involved.
a) after firing a coach like Babcock, how much excess pressure is there on Dubas to have playoff success this year?
b) how much more is that amplified because their path to the cup doesn't go thru Tampa and Boston the year?
c) how does the team you're trading with view their team? To squads like Columbus or Dallas who had playoff success in recent years let key pieces go this year? Or would they rather hang on, re-sign them, and see what comes of next year?
d) how much leadership does your captain provide to the locker room. what does it say to your fan base and current roster if you trade him away for a couple magic beans?
e) if there is a specific player you covet, the supply is 1. Punch that into your elasticity model
f) many teams likely know the leafs need to include kerfoot for cap purposes...they could attach negative trade value to him, insist he ins't included, or accept him but refuse to retain salary in the deal...how much does ownership weigh in on a team like Columbus trading away their captain, keeping and taking on salary...and getting a return that barely raises an eyebrow? What...because the economics says that's the average asking price? Eff that...you want something you believe can make your roster better or you're better off not making any deal.

So don't confuse any of the above with me thinking Kyle picks up the phone and immediately offers a king's ransom up front. The pieces I've included are more representative of the price I would personally be willing to go up to if the GM on the other line wasn't responding to lower offers.


I had more to say on this but I got busy there. My overall point is that regardless of all the points you made the biggest thing is a lack of demand right now. If Columbus wants a haul for Foligno, then just go a different route. And if these teams hold on to their players when they are clearly not close to being contenders, then they are missing out on improving down the road. I think it's a time to make a move but it's also a really great time to not overpay because you just don't need to. Someone is going to blink and with more sellers than buyers they are going to be the ones to blink first.
Apr. 7, 2021 at 12:13 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Nope none of that is what I am saying. I fully understand that a top 10 pick is more valuable than the 30th pick. I also fully understand sometimes drafted players don't work out. Often they do and TO has done a good job developing players over the past several years.

What I am saying is there is no need to just say "f*CK it here is 2 1st rounders and guy who's having a similar season because I don't want to hear it from fans who have a ridiculous expectation that they are going to get massive hauls for all their players".

Supply and demand, most seasons at the trade deadline there are contenders and a bunch of teams that are fighting for a playoff spot that are buyers. That isn't the case this year. There are effectively 2 spots still up for grabs. 4th in the west and central and in both cases whoever gets in is going to get destroyed by a much better team. So really you have a maximum of 14 teams that could, or should be buyers. Doing quick math, that means there are 17 teams that are sellers. How many of the buyers even have cap space? How many sellers have multiple pending UFA's? The amount of players vs the number of spots teams would like to fill or can fill is heavily favoring the buyers.

If one guy wants to buy apples and there are 5 guys selling, the buyer will just wait for the best price to buy them. He doesn't spend way more than the Apple is worth because he doesn't want to hear it from the fans of that Apple cart.


ya...because every player is an apple...

it's more like...there are 5 guys selling apples and only 1 buyer. 1 guy is selling honey crisps, another guy granny smith, 2 guys have red delicious and 1 guy has a golden delicious.

As a guy with a craving for an apple, you realize you already have a fridge full of exotic fruit, but really think an apple will hit the spot...you love honey crisps, but they're the most expensive. You really enjoy granny smith apples, too, and they're a little cheaper than the honey crisps....and even though you feel like an apple is what you need, you'd rather eat something out of your fridge than go for a red or golden delicious because they don't taste better than the fruit you already have.

so..what do you buy? I guess that depends. Can you wait for honey crisps to go on sale?
Apr. 7, 2021 at 12:21 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
I had more to say on this but I got busy there. My overall point is that regardless of all the points you made the biggest thing is a lack of demand right now. If Columbus wants a haul for Foligno, then just go a different route. And if these teams hold on to their players when they are clearly not close to being contenders, then they are missing out on improving down the road. I think it's a time to make a move but it's also a really great time to not overpay because you just don't need to. Someone is going to blink and with more sellers than buyers they are going to be the ones to blink first.


I get where you're coming from...but as a GM you have to identify if this playoff run is the one to push your chips into the middle of the table. If so, you overpay to get the specific guy you want, IMO,

Where we seem to differ the most, is that you seem to think there is a large supply of players that they leafs are willing to trade for, are available, and are affordable. My take is that, if you really believe you're a contender...you go after the top guy on your list....you don't just say "here's market value for your player, take it or I'll keep going down my list". It doesn't mean you pay whatever it takes...but it could very well mean you give up an asset you'd rather not.
Apr. 7, 2021 at 12:47 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: Juice
I get where you're coming from...but as a GM you have to identify if this playoff run is the one to push your chips into the middle of the table. If so, you overpay to get the specific guy you want, IMO,

Where we seem to differ the most, is that you seem to think there is a large supply of players that they leafs are willing to trade for, are available, and are affordable. My take is that, if you really believe you're a contender...you go after the top guy on your list....you don't just say "here's market value for your player, take it or I'll keep going down my list". It doesn't mean you pay whatever it takes...but it could very well mean you give up an asset you'd rather not.


Even if it is, and there are very good indicators it is a time to push chips in, with the supply outweighing the demand overpaying still isn't necessary. Make some moves absolutely but if you can get one of 15 players available, and Columbus wants 2 firsts for a 33 year old 3rd liner, just move on. It's just not one of those years where that sort of ask is at all reasonable. Wait till Monday and I'd wager you are going to see fans of these teams screaming for their GM's to get something for these players. That is what Dubas is doing now.

"Oh you want two firsts? No thanks, call me on Monday when you still have nothing to show for your outrageous demands.". Getting nothing for players who may leave in the summer for nothing will make fans very angry at their GM's. TO is a top 5 team right now and have spent a big portion of the season with their two best goalies hurt. They don't need to add to be good. They already are. So wait these other GM's out. If this team doesn't make a move, will it be devastating? How will Adams look if he doesn't move Hall for something and then loses him in the summer? How will Columbus react if they keep their UFA's and lose them in the summer when they very much need some draft capital after spending huge 2 seasons ago? I think the cries to do something will be greater from those teams than the winners.
 
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