Be honest, even if everything goes perfect and the game 1 roster is actually this; Is this really the hill you want Dubas/Shanny to die on?

Returning to the Atlantic Division means playing Sens/Habs that they struggled with already in the easiest division they'll never see again, And also playing Tampa, Boston, Florida who without much debate being needed we can all agree have much better/deeper rosters and should be safe 1-2-3 finishes in the Atlantic Division. So the Leafs have to fight for 4th in their own division.

But with the returning to normal divisions this also means that 5 teams can make the playoffs from the Metro division, and they have 6 teams near the same level as Tampa, Boston, Florida and it should actually be a really serious concern to the Atlantic Division that 5 teams from the Metro are easily capable of claiming playoff positions.

So Leafs best strategy is to add enough value onto the team to contest for 2nd/3rd in their own division to guarantee themselves a playoff position, and while I'm not knocking your personal choices here as you did a great job adding haula,bunting,bertuzzi who would be fun players to watch as Leafs, Its still not enough quality and or depth to compete in a full 82 game season where players are guaranteed to always get hurt but especially will playing Tampa, Boston, Florida 8x each. and all the other top teams in the league 2x.

Kerf is great but not a long term 2nd liner just for 1 point. Putting Robertson on the 2nd line is a wild card play that could pay off but unlikely across a full 82 game season.
to be blunt I guess I just think this roster misses the play offs by a lot.

Can you help me write my thesis

Bertuzzi is a younger and better version of Hyman. Kerfoot is not a center, but he still has value, especially in the playoffs, so moving him to the wing is the best option.

This line up is an upgrade on last season. So they will make the playoffs. The core four are good enough to carry this team.

The two question marks are Kerfoot and Rielly. The Leafs have the option to trade them and clear 8 and a half million. They can then make a big purchase like a Dougie Hamilton or a Landeskog. But Dubas seems to like Kerfoot and wants to extend Rielly. So there isn't really much to work with.

Lol

The core 4 that has reliably missed the playoffs or lost in the 1st round is now going up against some of the best teams in the whole league in their own division.

I am not saying Kerfoot has no value, I am saying he is not a 2nd line quality player for a full 82 game season. He can cover for a few games when there is injuries but he is not a long term solution to any top 6 in the league except maybe Buffalo now. I agree that the line up overall is an upgrade from their last seasons roster, the issue is you have to play Tampa, Boston, Florida, Montreal, Ottawa x8 and the rest of the league x2 and will struggle vs all of them. This roster as is it sits now is at best 4th in its own division, even with the small upgrades. (barring any major changes)

Campbell has to play perfect every single game and i'm sorry its not gonna happen when he's getting 35-40 shots against every game from much better teams that are fully established in their systems.

I'm not saying specifically Hamilton/Landeskog would be the pieces they need, but they need more than this to even push up in their own division.
and they need to push up in their own division to even make the play offs.

Its going to be a lot different from the last regular season.