So currently, the Blackhawks have 7 forwards and only 3 defenseman signed for 2022-23 as of right now. This also includes zero goalies. With only 31 million in cap space next offseason, I think its important to look at the 2022-23 season (AKA the final year of the Kane and Toews megadeals) and see how we can keep our players on reasonable cap hits, and be a competitive team under the salary cap. This is my first attempt at doing so.
Quick Note: I will be projecting the 2022-23 salary cap at 84M as I doubt were doing this flat cap thing again next year.
There are 2 UFA and 2 RFA contracts that I both want the Hawks to bring back, and deserve significant raises to what theyre currently getting. Those players are Kevin Lankinen and Connor Murphy on the UFA side; and Dominik Kubalik and Kirby Dach on the RFA side. Lets go through these players 1 by 1.
Connor Murphy - I am a former Connor Murphy hater and I say this because he just seemed like the guy where the puck always ended up in the back of the net due to mistakes he made. However, I have recently realized that I was massively underrating him because, I didn't take into account just how bad Eric Gustafsson is at defense and it was making Murphy look bad playing next to him. Now with "competent" players in their own zone, Murphy has proven me wrong and I'm happy about that. I think that as a steady defensive defenseman on a second pair, Murphy is someone the Hawks should look to keep long term as a very good second pair guy and leader going forward. He is about to turn 30, which is why the term isnt gonna be insane, but I think he deserve 5x5 AAV with TJ Brodie in Toronto as an easy comparable as he has that same contract. He will turn 34 when the contract ends and I have a hard time believing this will be a bad deal anywhere besides the last year.
Down to 26.275mil in cap space
The next guy is Kevin Lankinen. I love Lank but I think that the beginning of the season where he legit played like an MVP was not something we should ever expect again outside of maybe 1-2 weeks here and there. For me, Lank projects going forward as a very good 1B or top tier backup goalie. And if Fleury decides to actually play this year, we might get to see how consistent Lank can be. I totally believe Lankinen is going to be a solid NHL goalie for a long time, even if he never gets back to how he played from January to March. I would expect something like a 3 year deal at 2.5 AAV. Its a nice contract for a backup goalie, but the hawks will still need a primary or co-primary option.
Now its 23 million and theres still 2 big names we need back and the first is Dominik Kubalik.
Ill be frank, I want the Hawks to get this extension done NOW. Because Kuby is gonna be freaking elite next year. He became a much improved playmaker this season and his chemistry with Brandon Hagel is awesome to see, especially considering his rookie chemistry he had with Jonathan Toews. Those 3 I think can be a great line with smarts, tenacity, and great playmaking to add to a laser on the wing from Kuby. My expectation is that we can sign Kub for around 6 Mil and Ill give him 4 years on this contract. His defense does need to improve but I expect Toews and Hagel will improve that due to their relentless two-way ability. His production was fairly similar to his rookie year, but I think there's a caveat with that. He was getting ****ty icetime a lot of times because we wanted to artificially manufacture additional trade value for Mattias Janmark (note: it worked and we got the Colton Dach draft pick).
Speaking of Dach, Kirby Dach is the final player Im truly worried about on his contract extension. Dach is still extremely young yet hes already had a super tumultuous NHL career so far. He was a surprise 3rd overall pick who played right away in the NHL, hes already dealt with concussion issues and a broken wrist and despite all of that, he had a scoring pace increase from year 1 to year 2. Everything that has happened so far in Dachs career screams bridge deal. Before he can get his giant payday, I expect him to simply get a 2 year contract, probably gonna come in around 3.5AAV which will allow him to be an RFA once he proves himself more and he can get a much larger contract as the 1C of the future.
So, with now 11 mil in cap space after those deals, I have 10 forwards, 6 defenseman and 1 goalie on the roster. These last few will be quick fixes
Brandon Hagel 2 year 2,25 AAV
Wyatt Kalynuk 1 year 1.5 AAV
Caleb Jones 1 year 2 Mil AAV
Philipp Kurashev 1 year 2.75 AAV
Random Tandem Goalie 2.75 AAV
This absolutely doesnt leave us with much cap space and I havent even mentioned Nylander or Strome, but I think that this is a good baseline going forward to see how we can fit this team under the cap. Theres always a Connolly trade, a Johnson trade, we let someone walk to bring up a younger player/minimum contract depth player. But for now, this is where it stands. What do yall think?
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