Flames get fleeced in that Toronto trade, Arizona trade is the exact opposite since that 1st will be top 3 in a stacked draft.

How are they getting fleeced? They're getting a top 5 right wing.

and in the playoffs he magically goes missing

Made some changes per your thoughts, would these trades work now?

Bruh what? For a top 5 LW and 2 1sts?

Still no, the difference between Gaudreau and Marner is not a 1st. Still bo chqnce Zona does that, they are quite clearly sellers

He's 24 years old, he'll be fine. Guys like Ovi and Hall were playoff chokers until they weren't.



Top 5 left wing? bahahahahaha you can't be serious.



You're right, it's far more than just one first.

I mean if Marner is a top 5 RW then why is Gaudreau not a top 5 LW?

Marner is just a bit better defensively, thats it.



Lol ok bud, keep your overpaid winger

Gaudreau is a fantastic player, don't get me wrong, but he's not a top 5 left wing (not unless he proves his 99 point season wasn't a fluke).

Panarin, Marchand, Huberdeau, Kaprizov, Tkachuks (both of them) and Landesgog are all better if Gaudreau has a season like his last 2.
Ovi, Guentzel, Forsberg are up there too.

To suggest he's worth a younger, better player as a rental is absurd.

What do you mean "if Gaudreau has a seasob like his last 2?" He literally lead Calgary in points this year all while playing on a line entirely by himself.

Panarin, Marchand and Huberdeau yes, Kaprizov, and Landeskog definitely arent, Beither Tkachuk is better either. Only ones you could make an argument for right now are Ovi and Svechnikov.

As for RW's Marner is 5th at best and thats even debatable. Kane, Pastrnak, Kucherov and Stone are all better. Rantanen and Stamkos can definitely be considered better

Leading Calgary, a bad team, in points does mean that much.

If he played 82 games at the same pace in 2019-20 and 2021, he would have gotten 68 and 72 points respectively.

And when his best part of his game is his point scoring (there's nothing special about his defence or psychical play), that doesn't tell me top 5 left wing. Fringe top 10 (he was 8th in points for left wings over the last 2 seasons).

Hes been scoring well below expectation the last 2 years, whereas Marner has scored above expectation

Whose expectation are we going by? Yours? Not sure why this is relevant.

Why would I state a personal opinion, Im talking stats here. Marner's Goals For was well above his expected Goals For, whereas Gaudreau's was below. That means that Marner was quite puck lucky with his offensive chances and Gaudreau was not

What stats go into this chart thing?

People always post these things, but they have no meaning to me. Can you explain why Marner has been "lucky" but Gaudreau "unlucky"?

These charts are based on RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus). Basically there is a whole **** load of math using statistics, standard deviation, and what not that determine things like Goals For (GF), Expected Goals For 9xGF), Corsi For (CF), Expected Goals Against (xGA), and Goals Against (GA). As well as many other things but those are the main ones.

The above chart is based on a players 5v5 ice time results per 60 minutes of play, as you can see Marner had a very high GF/60 but his xGF is quite a bit below that meaning he scored more than he theoretically should have based on the offensive chances created. On the other hand Gaudreau had a higher xGF/60, that means that Gaudreau scored less than what was expected of him based on the chances he created this year. This was very likely due to playing nearly all season with a dysfunctional Monahan and an AHL plug.

To further dive into what I mean by that, when Gaudreau was moved to a line with Lindholm and Tkachuk towards the end of the season he had 22 points in those 16 games which is a 113 point pace

This is all well and good, but there's no way of knowing how much better Gaudreau will be with new linemates. It also doesn't mean Marner will slow down at all (if anything he'll improve with another year of age). Marner is still the better player, and because he's younger and isn't a rental, he's got a lot more trade value.

I understand your POV, I think the difference here is that I am expecting Gaudreau to come with an extension around 8M and if he produces at the paces he should then offensively they are a wash, and as I said earlier Marner is a bit better defensively.

If Gaudreau comes with an 8 mil a year extention that does bring his value up (still not Marner but close).

here's another thing to look at, these were posted on JFresh's twitter this offseason


It can be noted by the graphs on the right that Gaudreau's defensive game has clearly improved drastically in the last 2 seasons as well (the red line)

Interesting. To be honest Gaudreau has been better than I thought.