Close. AZ probably wants Pinto or Sanderson.

If the Senators had that on the table, Chychrun would be dealt by now. The prospects in that package aren't that great, but that's one of the biggest hauls any play has gotten in the last few years.

People are going to counter that the Coyotes are taking Zaitsev, which increases the cost. Nemeth, who was owed similar (real) money to what Zatisev is owed, cost two 2nd round picks for New York to dump to Arizona. The dynamic is different though. The Coyotes have more incentive to take Zaitsev in a Chychrun trade for two reasons. One, if they are even thinking about taking Zaitsev to facilitate a Chychrun trade, that likely means that the Senators already have a better offer than the second best offer. So whatever that difference is between the Senators top offer and the number two team's top offer helps justify taking Zaitsev. Two, the Coyotes will only be about 2M above the floor once they set a 23 player roster. Moving out Chychrun both puts them below the floor, and also loses them their wiggle room above the floor.

By waiting this late in the off season to move Chychrun, they lost some flexibility cap manipulation wise. This is because they now need to take back a contract if they move out Chychrun, and there is no way to guarantee that if they deal with a different team the contract they take back will be advantageous this season like the Zaitsev contract is. Zaitsev had his signing bonus paid by Ottawa, so he would get Arizona above the floor with a cushion, while costing them less real money than taking back a contract where the salary is at parity (or higher) than the cap. Arizona needs to have a cushion above the floor (as they currently do with Chychrun) to allow them to sell off players in the season and at the trade deadline.

Does this mean they should take Zaitsev for free as part of the trade? No. It means, it likely won't boost the return by Zaitsev's full negative value of two 2nd round picks, because there is incentive for Arizona to take him to facilitate the deal (The Senators offer is higher than the next best offer and would be off the table without Zaitsev+Zaitsev saves Arizona cash this season compared to adding a different approx. 4.5M player).

Take out JBD and Merilainen, and I think that's what the return will be. 2023 1st (lottery protected)/2024 2nd/2025 2nd/Jarventie/Brannstrom for Chychrun+Taking Zaitsev

Maybe the 2024 2nd would have come conditional elements that could upgrade it to a 1st. Like if the Senators make the conference final, and Chychrun plays in x amount of playoff games, it becomes a 1st.

I don't think the Coyotes will get their ask, which has seemed quite high. If that was going to happen, it would have happened by now. I think a trade might be expedited by Chychrun's recent comments and the opening of training cap. Chychrun's injury status has bought the Coyotes a bit of extra time, but ultimately teams rarely do better by holding on to a disgruntled player when it is publicly known he wants to be traded and has been shopped for an extended period of time. They are reaching the peak of whatever offers they will get, and this is just the final posturing between all sides before someone blinks and something gets done. It wouldn't surprise me if he is traded this week.