You're overvaluing Bear and undervaluing Dunn and Soucy @ 50% cap. Bear is likely worth a 3rd while at least Dunn (and perhaps Soucy) with cap retained is closer in value to a 1st- especially when you're trying to use 2024 2nds instead of the 2023 2nd. Neither Bokk nor Keane really make up for the difference between a 2nd and a 1st.

Bear is worth the 2nd, I would say Bear is worth more than Soucy. Bear is an RFA on expiry, Soucy is a UFA. Soucy is older and both he and Dunn are lefties while Bear is a righty. Bear makes less, and the difference in skill between Soucy and Bear is minimal. Soucy is primarily a DFD, Bear is an OFD. I may have undervalued Dunn, but he's not worth one of the better prospects in the organization so I went with Keane (who's good, not great) and Bokk.

I don't see a precedent for Bear being worth a 2nd. 3rd pairing offensive D with the particular limitations that Bear has (skating speed and defending) don't tend to garner much value in a trade. Conversely, players with Soucy's particular combination of skills (size, slot defense, and competent puckmoving) tend to garner greater returns than many expect. However, given the precedent of Kulak last year, I'd be willing to concede that part of the deal is at least plausible.

However, Dunn is a player that I can't imagine being traded for less than a 1st and a prospect or a 2nd and a genuine, quality prospect unless he has an abysmal season. Neither Keane nor Bokk are that.

Bokk is certainly a prospect, and I'd argue off of the season Dunn had last year he's not returning a 1st. His last few seasons in St Louis were not great and he wasn't lighting the world on fire last year.

As for your assessment of Bear and Soucy, Bear's proven he can play top 4 and even top pairing minutes comfortably on a contender. This does not make him a top 4/ top pairing defender, but it does free him of that pigeon-hole 3rd pairing D-man tag. Playing through a fractured ankle and long-term covid is also likely to earn him some extra points with some of the older school GMs in the league that value that determination and gusto. Soucy has great size, but Bear's clearly the better skater there. Bear is the better puck mover. Combine that with the gap between them offensively being bigger than the gap between them defensively, Bear being younger, having team control, and being the more valuable handedness, I fail to see where the Soucy value comes from, even half retained. I'd argue the other way, Soucy no retention is a 3rd and Bear being a 2nd, hence going from a 3rd to a second for 1.3 retained is worth moving up a round.

We are very clear on what is going on with Gardiner, he had a setback and is not expected to play this year. There are three outlets in the local Raleigh area reporting the same thing.

“ No one has a clue what is going on with Gardiner. Could he be healthy? Maybe? I don't know.”

No, this is wrong.

No one has confirmed Gardiner is out for the year. He's had a set back, but all 3 outlets have reported his timetable is uncertain. WRAL and N&O have said this. Anything else is wrong. They know Gardiner won't start the year, but he's still a possible retunr candidate later in the year. Hence, we don't know what's going on.

So we do know what’s going on or we don’t? I’m confused

We don't know if/when he'll return. All we know is that he won't be healthy to start the year. There's nothing to say he's out for the year

I wish there was a wager function on CapFriendly…I’d be willing to put a decent amount of my own money that he won’t play a single second of ice time this year (for any team).

As that may be, it doesn't mean he's out for the year. Players can be left healthy on LTIR (Lupul) so you could be right, but that doesn't mean he can't play

IMO, Kraken won’t trade Dunn