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Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20 at 5:21 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 9:17 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 6:09 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 5:13 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Your own chart shows hughes as being much more productive than Aho. GF/60 charts, outside of cases with unsustainable shooting luck (like kuzmenko/horvat for example), are much more accurate in determining a players value, as actual scoring is impacted heavily by a player's scoring skill. That is why evolving hockey uses actual goal production for offensive talent, (which you could read about if you actually took the time to understand the stats you spout). And defensively, it once again shows jack as better at preventing chances against, in this case xGA and CA are more valuable and meaningful because a skater has little impact on the shooting of opponents and goaltending behind him.

Thank you for proving my point with a chart that shows Hughes as better on both sides of the ice.

Wow so the 33 year old who can't stay healthy for a full season. good to know. that really helps his case. below average in 19-20, below average in 20-21, great in 21-22, great in 22-23</div></div>

It shows his GF was better, but if you read, they say Aho's actually the better player. Something people love to point out with RAPM charts is that they do not account for system, QoT, QoC or a few other things. Aho has a giant leash on his offensive upside under Rod. This isn't new or controversial. Look at players that come in, their xGF falls through the floor because Rod doesn't allow for quality shot chances so much as shot volume. It's an olf-fashioned system and would probably be better if the Canes were more free flowing. You also are keen to mention unless there is an unsustainable shooting percentage, which Hughes probably doesn't have? 12.8 is probably sustainable for someone of his skillset, although I wouldn't be shocked if he was going at 10% next year because he's a human being. But if we flip this and look at Aho, who shot 16% last season and has done over the last 4 years, that also implies that Aho's skillset is better. Hughes is much more talented in terms of the tools he has, but there is definitely a world where Aho outproduced Hughes next year and we revisit this. Hughes is an absolute stud, but the disrepect Aho gets is mad.

The chart shows Aho's actually probably better at this point, but you know, you probably believe points are the be all and end all so I don't blame you.

Andersen was fine in 2019-20... what do you mean? He had a tragic October, he usually does, but he was on pace for his usual save percentage and xGSA stats. They were truncated by the pandemic, and then you saw in All or Nothing he was made to play hurt during the bubble. But it doesn't fit your narrative so you'll discount it.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>And specifically regarding carolina's fake ass xGoals, they have failed to live up to their xGoals number, often by 20-40 goals, every single year since 2008. I don't know if it's ****ty tracking, but carolina's xGoals numbers aren't all that meaningful to me at this point</div></div>

As I've said, Carolina's xG differential was talent under Peters, Maurice, and Mueller. It just wasn't a good roster. Since Waddell took over, it's Rod. You can see the talent that comes through Carolina go elsewhere and succeed. Nic Roy, Erik Haua, Warren Foegele, Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter... the entire system works on low danger chances stemming from point shots. The teams xG stats and they defensemen are inflated. Definitely. The forwards probably have deflated numbers because they aren't in a position to generate so much. It's how a forward like Stef Noesen who lives at the edge of the crease scores 13 goals, like he did last season.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 5:01 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 10:28 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 10:25 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Hischier had a better even strength scoring rate than Aho both of the last 2 years in addition to being better defensively, and overall the last 2 years they are within 0.03ppg. Idk how you can say that’s not comparable, when hischier has been BETTER the last 2 years. Hughes has been a solid 0.26 ppg better than aho the last 2 years, Aho isn’t in the same tier.

Of the 5 goalies I have listed here, Freddie was the WORST in GSAx, GAA, and sv% last year. He’s had a negative GSAx in 3/4 years. And you are severely overrating his 21-22 season.</div></div>

<img class="for_img" src=";height=610" alt="CtvFysxin3OAXcLiJ7AAAq1d69e7ds2RIdHW3xvgsAuEtE9gAAAIAe8AQtAAAAoAdE9gAAAIAeENkDAAAAekBkDwAAAOgBkT0AAACgB0T2AAAAgB4Q2QMAAAB68P8AuOPrbsvRtK8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=741&amp;height=610">

Aho's right there with Hughes, since you want to look at the underlying so much. There's a gap between Hischier and Hughes, and Aho is very much in it. He's closer to Hughes than Hischier. You point out the minor PPG rate difference, but ignore that Aho plays in a system that completely strangles offensive talent. Convenient.

It's almost like he had to play injured the entire first month of the season, like I said he did... Once he got back, he was absolutely fine. In the playoffs, Freddie had the 4th next GSAx of any goalie, only bettered by Hill, Shetserkin and Bob. If you want to look at GSAx/60, he's 5th, behind Campbell, Shesterkin, Bob and Sorokin. He was 3rd in High Danger Save Percentage Above Expected behind only Campbell and Wedgewood. You are SEVERELY underrating Freddie. When he's healthy, he's a top 10 goalie in the NHL. Vanacek and Schmid ain't that.

If you want a source on the numbers, it's all from money puck. You want to try and use a season he openly admitted to playing hurt in, so why not use a time when he was completely healthy and dominant? Or we can go back to the year before when only Shesterkin's analytical breaking season was better than Freddie. Come on now.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 10:08 a.m.