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Caniac2000

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Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20 at 5:21 a.m.
Thread: If OTT Trades Pinto
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>We're comparing to players on a team that have good contracts in general and who prioritize 2-way hockey (like they should)

I'm not sure how you can say that Fast is "not an offensive black hole" while Joseph is.

Fast is 31 and has a career 0.36 PPG (0.39 PPG the last 3 years with the Canes)

Joseph is 26 and has a career 0.35 PPG (0.45 PPG in 67 GP with Ottawa)

They both get their points on ES or PK, very few PP points.

Joseph actually produces that in just 12:30 TOI/GP while Fast has a career14:42 TOI/GP

So I have no idea how you can make this statement when it's objectively not true.

Yes MJ would cost an asset to move right now but that's why the Sens should keep him, his value will be positive again next season as he bounces back and the cap rises</div></div>

Erm... I doubt that, look at Joseph's RAPM over the last three seasons compared to Fast. <img class="for_img" src="https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/859504618244669501/1153983818034855946/AFQStLEzJ7qJAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC.png?width=741&amp;height=610" alt="AFQStLEzJ7qJAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC.png?width=741&amp;height=610">

That offensive struggle is undeniable. It's much more likely he doesn't bounce back at this is more like what he is making 3 million. It's why Fast who makes 2.4 is better value. Plus, Fast's line was the best in hockey in terms of xG last year according to Moneypuck. Joseph struggles across the board.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 9:17 p.m.
Thread: If OTT Trades Pinto
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>As bad as you're making Joseph out to be offensively, his Ponts/60 at ES since 2020-21 are 1.64

During the same period of time, some Hurricanes forwards Pts/60 at ES :

Sebastian Aho 2.65
Andrei Svechnikov 2.32
Martin Necas 2.09
Seth Jarvis 2.01
Jesperi Kotkaniemi 1.91
Teuvo Teravainen 1.85
Jordan Staal 1.84
Jesper Fast 1.6
Jordan Martinook 1.58

It's also important to note that last season, Joseph mainly played at ES with Tyler Motte, Shane Pinto (rookie who had just missed a full season), Derick Brassard (declined version), Julien Gauthier and Dylan Gambrell

The only good linemates he played with was Tkachuk and Stutzle for 11.9% of his ES shifts

Oh and who looks at salary, his cap hit is 2.95

Fast is actually a pretty good comparable for Joseph. Fairly similar production, ES and PK work. Fast didn't miss many games lately though</div></div>

Fast's also just better because he's not an offensive black hole. , but even if you want to compare them head to head, Fast's cheaper. Look at the Canes you tried to compare Joseph to. The only one Jospeh is better than is Jordan Martinook... a dude that was on waivers at the beginning of last year. He is a cap dump.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 6:09 p.m.
Thread: Lines n stuff
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ennis</b></div><div>Orlov might have some decent defensive numbers, or whatever your fancy graphs say, but have you <em>actually</em> watched him play? He likes to take chances and jump into the rush. He's not really a DFD. You'll see that when you watch him.

Skjei won't replicate another 18 goal season. First time he's scored double digits in his career. He's fine enough defensively to be paired with D

Their funeral if they want to stuff Bunting on the 4th line. But he's better than Martinook and help would create a scary 3rd line.</div></div>

He's very defense first, the offensive side of his game is incredibly forced, if you watched him during his early days in Washington you'd know that. Skjei isn't good enough defensively to play with TDA. Skjei and Pesce as well as Martinook - Staal - Fast are like death and taxes when it comes to Carolina. Neither will change. You're not wrong Bunting is better than Martinook, but he will not break that line up when it was THAT dominant.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 5:13 p.m.
Thread: Devils vs Canes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Your own chart shows hughes as being much more productive than Aho. GF/60 charts, outside of cases with unsustainable shooting luck (like kuzmenko/horvat for example), are much more accurate in determining a players value, as actual scoring is impacted heavily by a player's scoring skill. That is why evolving hockey uses actual goal production for offensive talent, (which you could read about if you actually took the time to understand the stats you spout). And defensively, it once again shows jack as better at preventing chances against, in this case xGA and CA are more valuable and meaningful because a skater has little impact on the shooting of opponents and goaltending behind him.

Thank you for proving my point with a chart that shows Hughes as better on both sides of the ice.

Wow so the 33 year old who can't stay healthy for a full season. good to know. that really helps his case. below average in 19-20, below average in 20-21, great in 21-22, great in 22-23</div></div>

It shows his GF was better, but if you read, they say Aho's actually the better player. Something people love to point out with RAPM charts is that they do not account for system, QoT, QoC or a few other things. Aho has a giant leash on his offensive upside under Rod. This isn't new or controversial. Look at players that come in, their xGF falls through the floor because Rod doesn't allow for quality shot chances so much as shot volume. It's an olf-fashioned system and would probably be better if the Canes were more free flowing. You also are keen to mention unless there is an unsustainable shooting percentage, which Hughes probably doesn't have? 12.8 is probably sustainable for someone of his skillset, although I wouldn't be shocked if he was going at 10% next year because he's a human being. But if we flip this and look at Aho, who shot 16% last season and has done over the last 4 years, that also implies that Aho's skillset is better. Hughes is much more talented in terms of the tools he has, but there is definitely a world where Aho outproduced Hughes next year and we revisit this. Hughes is an absolute stud, but the disrepect Aho gets is mad.

The chart shows Aho's actually probably better at this point, but you know, you probably believe points are the be all and end all so I don't blame you.

Andersen was fine in 2019-20... what do you mean? He had a tragic October, he usually does, but he was on pace for his usual save percentage and xGSA stats. They were truncated by the pandemic, and then you saw in All or Nothing he was made to play hurt during the bubble. But it doesn't fit your narrative so you'll discount it.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>And specifically regarding carolina's fake ass xGoals, they have failed to live up to their xGoals number, often by 20-40 goals, every single year since 2008. I don't know if it's ****ty tracking, but carolina's xGoals numbers aren't all that meaningful to me at this point</div></div>

As I've said, Carolina's xG differential was talent under Peters, Maurice, and Mueller. It just wasn't a good roster. Since Waddell took over, it's Rod. You can see the talent that comes through Carolina go elsewhere and succeed. Nic Roy, Erik Haua, Warren Foegele, Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter... the entire system works on low danger chances stemming from point shots. The teams xG stats and they defensemen are inflated. Definitely. The forwards probably have deflated numbers because they aren't in a position to generate so much. It's how a forward like Stef Noesen who lives at the edge of the crease scores 13 goals, like he did last season.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 5:01 p.m.
Thread: Lines n stuff
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ennis</b></div><div>Bunting is an upgrade to Martinook. He adds a bit of grease to the 3rd line, bumping Martinook down to the 4th to kind of create a good 4th line of him and Noesen on the wings. You're not going to pay Bunting 4.5m to stuff him on the 4th line.

Orlov plays a primarily offensive game. He likes to jump in the rush a lot. Having both him and Tony D on the same line wouldn't be ideal. Skjei is better suited defensively to babysit Tony D, while Pesce can play the man back while Orlov takes his rushes.</div></div>

Neither of these things is true. Bunting was not brought in to replace Marty on the Staal line, it's why they brought Fast back. That line will stay together. Bunting will play with Drury and Noesen or Jarvis and Aho. He just won't play with Staal.

Orlov is a DFD... his entire gimmick is that he is a defensive defenseman who learned what the offensive zone is age 30. He can babysit DeAngelo. Skjei is what you think Orlov is, not exactly rainbows and butterflies defensively, but he had a 18 goal season last year so he's clearly got something right offensively.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 10:28 a.m.
Thread: A couple different ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Maximus_Domi</b></div><div>I figure if anyone can make him into a good two forward, Rod could. His offensive upside could put Carolina over the top. Well…. Conference finals until they lose to the Leafs. Lol🍻</div></div>

His defensive issues are so glaring though. That's a major step backwards on the top line in the most important part of what they do. People seem to not realize, it's Jarvis that plays with Aho. Not Necas. Jarvis straight up has the potential to be better than Nylander. I just cannot see any reason for the Canes to do this. And I just don't see the fit with Nylander in Raleigh. Rod prioritizes defense. He always has. Carolina as a team has had players that weren't good defensively. Erik Haula, Ryan Dzingel... they all ended up being dealt away or in the press box. Necas is the exception right now, but he's also still really raw. Nylander as a pending UFA, defensive liability, and asking for almost double his value in a deal seems like everything the Canes will avoid
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 10:25 a.m.
Thread: Devils vs Canes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Hischier had a better even strength scoring rate than Aho both of the last 2 years in addition to being better defensively, and overall the last 2 years they are within 0.03ppg. Idk how you can say that’s not comparable, when hischier has been BETTER the last 2 years. Hughes has been a solid 0.26 ppg better than aho the last 2 years, Aho isn’t in the same tier.

Of the 5 goalies I have listed here, Freddie was the WORST in GSAx, GAA, and sv% last year. He’s had a negative GSAx in 3/4 years. And you are severely overrating his 21-22 season.</div></div>

<img class="for_img" src="https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/859504618244669501/1153696720841080932/CtvFysxin3OAXcLiJ7AAAq1d69e7ds2RIdHW3xvgsAuEtE9gAAAIAe8AQtAAAAoAdE9gAAAIAeENkDAAAAekBkDwAAAOgBkT0AAACgB0T2AAAAgB4Q2QMAAAB68P8AuOPrbsvRtK8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=741&amp;height=610" alt="CtvFysxin3OAXcLiJ7AAAq1d69e7ds2RIdHW3xvgsAuEtE9gAAAIAe8AQtAAAAoAdE9gAAAIAeENkDAAAAekBkDwAAAOgBkT0AAACgB0T2AAAAgB4Q2QMAAAB68P8AuOPrbsvRtK8AAAAASUVORK5CYII.png?width=741&amp;height=610">

Aho's right there with Hughes, since you want to look at the underlying so much. There's a gap between Hischier and Hughes, and Aho is very much in it. He's closer to Hughes than Hischier. You point out the minor PPG rate difference, but ignore that Aho plays in a system that completely strangles offensive talent. Convenient.

It's almost like he had to play injured the entire first month of the season, like I said he did... Once he got back, he was absolutely fine. In the playoffs, Freddie had the 4th next GSAx of any goalie, only bettered by Hill, Shetserkin and Bob. If you want to look at GSAx/60, he's 5th, behind Campbell, Shesterkin, Bob and Sorokin. He was 3rd in High Danger Save Percentage Above Expected behind only Campbell and Wedgewood. You are SEVERELY underrating Freddie. When he's healthy, he's a top 10 goalie in the NHL. Vanacek and Schmid ain't that.

If you want a source on the numbers, it's all from money puck. You want to try and use a season he openly admitted to playing hurt in, so why not use a time when he was completely healthy and dominant? Or we can go back to the year before when only Shesterkin's analytical breaking season was better than Freddie. Come on now.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19 at 10:08 a.m.
Thread: A couple different ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Maximus_Domi</b></div><div>I forgot to add it would be a sign and trade for Willy. Don’t blame the Canes for not wanting to do that without an extension in place. Can’t see why Willy wouldn’t want to sign there. Been contenders for a while.👍</div></div>

Then this depends on the Nylander extension. Carolina will tend to avoid players signed into their late 30s unless they're getting them at a discount rate, such as Pacioretty for future considerations or Burns for a bag of pucks and he was 1/3rd retained. I still doubt Jarvis would be on the table for Nylander unless Nylanders deal is like 7 million over 7 years and WAY below market value. He's way too awful defensively to be given a top line role in a Rod system. Nylander just doesn't work in Carolina for so many different reasons.