Forums/Minnesota Wild

Expansion Draft breakdown.

May 28 at 1:18 am
#1
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 1,939
Likes: 64
The Wild are going to lose a good player in the expansion draft. There isn't really a reasonable way for them not too.

NMC's: Koivu, Parise, Pominville, Suter. These 4 are auto protected, so the 8-1 route isn't really an option.
- Pominville could be bought out to open up his slot, but there is very little cap savings, and it would cost as much or more to replace him.

7-3-1

FWDs: Koivu, Parise, and Pominville auto protected for the sake of this post. So there are 4 FWD open slots.
-Coyle: Very unlikely to be exposed. His contract is too good to let go of for the production he has and his utility as a center or RW.
-Granlund: Very unlikely to be exposed. He just had a career year with 69p season. RFA contract is needed this offseason. Trade bait if he's going to cost too much for the Wild.
-Haula: Exposed. RFA contract due, a solid 3C, can play up in a pinch, but isn't really a 2C without taking a big step in his game.
-Nino: Very unlikely to be exposed. RFA contract is due this year. Trade bait if he's going to cost too much.
-Staal: Unlikely to be exposed. He's old and only has 2 years under contract left. But he is still a legitimate 1C, and the Wild don't have an in-house replacement for him.
-Stewart: Exposed. He's a 4th liner with some scoring skills. Too many better options for Vegas to consider him.
-Zucker: Likely exposed (unless Pommer waives his NMC). Vegas native (only one in the NHL), fast, goal scorer, cheap and has team control for his next contract. He'll like be the bait for Vegas not to take one of the d-men.

Defense: Suter auto protected, so 2 open slots.
-Brodin: 50/50 chance to be exposed. He'd probably end up as Vegas' #1D if taken, good contract for term and money, turns 24 before the season starts. In-house replacements.
-Dumba: 50/50 chance to be exposed. Young offensive RHD, cheap, high potential, and a lot of team control.
-Folin: Exposed: Bottom pair RHD, RFA contract due. So many better options that he won't be taken.
-Olofsson: Exposed. LHD, 2nd pair potential, injury history. RFA contract due. Won't be taken unless the team gets completely blown up. In-house replacement if one of the d-men is taken. He's NHL ready, just is made out of glass.
-Spurgeon: Unlikely to be exposed. The puckmoving, PPQB, RHD that every team seems to be looking for. $5.2mx3 contract. He'd be the best RHD in the draft if exposed. It would be a gamble, but his size and contract could scare Vegas from taking him.
-Scandella: Exposed. 3/4 defensive d-man, good contract $4mx3. Suter and Brodin are better than him and there is in-house replacements.

I see lots of teams on here that want to give pennies on the dollar for the Wild's players. The reasoning is they will be lost for nothing anyways. That thinking doesn't make sense from the Wild perspective.

Say of the players likely to be exposed: Dumba/Brodin and Zucker are worth $1.25 each; Scandella is worth $1; so $3.50 worth of players total. All trades are 80 cents on the dollar value wise
-Wild will lose one of these for nothing to Vegas, and they do nothing at all for trades before the draft. $2.25 left, one player to replace.
-Wild trade one of the $1.25 players for a return of $1 in lottery scratch-offs ($3.25 in value left). They still lose the other $1.25 player for nothing to Vegas. $2.00 left, two players to replace
-Wild trade both of their $1.25 player for $1 lottery scratch-offs ($3 in value left). They still lose the $1 player to Vegas for nothing. $2.00 left, three players to replace.
-Wild trade all 3 of their players for lottery scratch-offs ($2.80 in value left). They still lose one of the scratch-offs or Haula/Olofsson (say $0.75 in value). ~$2.05 left, four players to replace.

The trades that make sense are fair value (quality for quality) ones for the Wild, even better if they are for draft exempt players that will have top-6 or top-4 roles next season. Three future 2nd round picks and a couple of b-prospects (quality for quantity) do nothing to help a team that's in win now mode, and there is a 50 player contract limit for each team. A-prospects might be considered; but remember the Wild have JEE, Kunin, Kaprizov (all captains of their U-20 teams this year), Tuch, Greenway, Olofsson, and Reilly in the pipes already; so the A-prospect needs to be better than what the Wild already have.
 0
May 29 at 4:50 pm
#2
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 113
Likes: 6
I didn't notice this post but great thorough writeup of the Wild's situation. There's just one small thing in your money analogy that isn't quite correct. In your examples where they either trade one or both of their $1.25 defensemen, I don't think you're factoring in that the next best remaining guy will then be protected in the expansion draft. So in your second example (Wild trade one $1.25 guy), the other $1.25 guy would be protected and Vegas would end up taking $1.00 Scandella. This makes trading one of Bordin/Dumba a little more beneficial if the return is good.
 0
May 29 at 6:56 pm
#3
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 1,939
Likes: 64
It all depends on the return, cap, and expansion draft implications. A roughly equal return and it is likely worth a trade.

Also take into account the Wild are in a win now mode. A prospect that is a few years away from the NHL, or has a logjam in front of him already in the system doesn't do them any good now. Even some teams #1 prospect doesn't mean much if it's a LD or LW to the Wild. RD, C, and G are the weaker spots in the organizational pipeline.

If Dumba was traded and Zucker picked by Vegas, that's not enough cap space, so the Wild likely still lose another player for mystery boxes.
 0
May 29 at 7:51 pm
#4
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 113
Likes: 6
Now I've been under the impression that Vegas would take Scandella if one of the other defensemen get traded, but I've noticed that a lot of Wild fans are penciling Zucker into expansion drafts. Is that simply because he's the hometown kid, or is he actually a more valuable player than Scandella?
 0
May 29 at 9:36 pm
#5
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 1,939
Likes: 64
Quoting: SwissCheese77
Now I've been under the impression that Vegas would take Scandella if one of the other defensemen get traded, but I've noticed that a lot of Wild fans are penciling Zucker into expansion drafts. Is that simply because he's the hometown kid, or is he actually a more valuable player than Scandella?


Scandella had a down year, and just had some arthroscopic surgery. Scandella falls into a group of d-men that will be exposed with similar skills.

Zucker just had his 2nd 20g season (3rd season over 25 games), is cheap, team controlled, and the only hometown boy. Of his 64 career goals: 59 ESG, 3 PPG, 2 SHG. The guy gets almost no PP time and still puts up good scoring numbers. He'd be on Vegas's top line. If he works on his breakaway shooting he'd easily have been a 30g scorer.
 0
 
Reply
To create a post please Login or Register
Question:
Options:
Add Option
Remove Option
Insert NHL Teams
Submit Poll