OTTAWA
-The Senators cannot re-sign Debrincat long term due to the salary cap.
-They need a #3 D and a cost controlled 1A/1B type goalie to play with Forsberg.
-They need to dump Zaitsev.
-They use the Debrincat/Talbot trades to subsidize the cost of acquiring those two pieces.
-One of Thompson or JBD has to be involved in the trade due to waiver status next season.
-Both pieces the Senators get are cost controlled at a good cap hit.

VEGAS
-Stone is going on LTIR after back surgery.
-Vegas has been tied to Talbot since they need help in net.
-Debrincat gives Vegas flexibility. He can either be a rental for the playoffs. In which case, they can turn around and flip his rights at the draft to recoup the 1st round pick they gave up.
-If it turns out that Stone is still out next season, they can sign Debrincat to a 1 year deal as Stone’s short term replacement.

ARIZONA
-The Coyotes get two 1sts (both top 10 protected), two 2nds, and a young bottom pairing defender for Chychrun, and Vejmelka. They take Zaitsev as part of the trade.
-A side benefit is that this certainly helps the tank of the Coyotes.

Something just says that a Vegas late-ish 1st and two 2nd rounders is not enough for Vegas to get DeBrincat and Vejmelka in return... plus Talbot for further goalie insurance! So many goalies..

Quite an undeserved return for them lol.

And too many goalies ... Thompson, Vejmelka, Talbot, Hill, Brossoit....

The Sens got him for a 7th overall in a draft with a weaker than normal top 10, a high 2nd, and a 3rd.

He is coming off a worse season in Ottawa, and he will only have 1 year of team control remaining.

I figure he is probably worth a 1st/2nd/3rd without an extension, Talbot is probably worth a 3rd, so bump it up to a 1st/2nd/2nd.

Even if the value for Debrincat or Chychrun+Vejmelka is off, it's more about the premise of the trade. The premise being, Ottawa cannot re-sign Debrincat, so they can flip him to subsidize acquiring Chychrun - and that Vegas would want Debrincat as a short term replacement for Stone.

Debrincat gives Vegas a lot of flexibility as an acquisition because they can do one of the following:
1 - If Stone will be on LTIR for 23-24: Sign Debrincat to a 1 year contract at less than 9M (9M qualifying offer vs 7.65 minimum with club elected arbitration)
2 - If Stone will return for 23-24: Trade Debrincat at the draft to recoup the 1st round pick they gave up to rent him.
3 - If Stone's career is over: Attempt to sign Debrincat long term. The 9.5M via Stone going on LTIRetirement would fund Debrincat's long term cap hit.

Maybe the Senators should be owed a conditional pick to hedge against Vegas flipping Debrincat in the off season. Unfortunately, they can no longer receive a pick conditional on Debrincat signing.

Note that Vejmelka was supposed to go to Ottawa in the trade, not Vegas.

That was an error.

AZ needs a goalie back to complete this deal. Soogard?

Sogaard is not a backup goalie. He is the Senators goalie of the future. The Senators likely value him like a 1st round pick. He's not just a throw in.

Send over Michael Hutchinson from Vegas. He is on a cheap 2-way contract, and has NHL experience. He isn't very good, but with over 100 career NHL games, he is good enough to play a few games in the context of a tanking team.

The long term outlook of this trade for Ottawa would be that before the trade they have 18M in cap space for 23-24 with only 12 active players on the roster. They need a #2-3 type D, and a capable 1A or 1B type goalie to pair with Forsberg. They cannot realistically sign Debrincat both in the short or the long term without making their team worse because his 8M+ will make them too top heavy up front and prevent them from addressing any other needs. Once they pay Debrincat they would barely have enough to fill out their roster with 2-way contracts. They would certainly not have enough to improve the D or bring in another goalie.

The result of this trade is that Ottawa has roughly 15M in cap space with 13 active players on the roster. They need a top 6 forward who can also help them out on the power play. After filling out their roster, they would have about 5-6 million open to accomplish that. Ideally through acquiring a player on a shorter term deal that could be rotated off of the cap.

Wait you're not joking, you actually made this to be a serious trade?

Ottawa can easily sign ADB to a 3-8-year deal for $9M+ as he's worth, they will have cap flexibility as long as they trade Zaitsev and a high-round pick for FC. The cap is expected to go up $10M in the next 3 seasons. Even If they don't get him on a max term right away, they have the flexibility and control over him to get a bridge deal until the spike in the cap and then sign him to the biggest deal in franchise history. Ottawa still has 1 year of RFA on him, there's no reason to make any sort of moves with him before new ownership this summer. Let him have a full season in Ottawa before making such a big trade.

You have Ottawa trading an arm, a leg, a kidney, a few toes, and an ear for Chychurn and Vejmelka. Forsberg can be the sens starter next season while they sign a backup UFA goalie on a 1-year deal. There are still Leevi Merilainen and Mads Sogaard coming up the pipeline that can be the tandem of the future as your 1A/1B.

Sens are also giving up an RHD prospect for another LHD which they have an abundance of (Kleven, Chabot, Sanderson, Brannstrom...). Arizona trade rumors have said they want a package with Pinto or Greig which neither are here. This is just a nonsensical trade that benefits no one but the Arizona Coyotes.

I do agree however Talbot to Vegas would be a good fit, but Ottawa would more than likely get Laurent Brossoit and a mid-round pick

Ottawa won't have cap flexibility if they sign Debrincat at 9M. The math doesn't work. Sanderson is a year away from getting 5M on a bridge, or 8M on a long term deal. This isn't to say that they cannot sign Debrincat. It is to say that if they sign Debrincat, they will not have enough cap space to add either a goalie or a top 4 defender, let alone add both of them. Signing Debrincat leaves them with just enough cap space to fill out the roster.

The cost to move Zaitsev right now is likely a 1st round pick. If it was any cheaper, Ottawa would have done it by now since we know they have been shopping him so last off season. If the plan is to keep Debrincat and move Zaitsev to enable the Senators to fill another need, you likely have to ear mark something like Greig or the 1st round pick to be attached to Zaitsev. It is possible that he may be able to be moved for less down the line after his bonus is paid, but that isn't for certain and it means the Senators might miss out on the best opportunity to acquire a player, which is going to be at the draft when there is maximum player movement.

Thomson has minimal value. He is likely worth a 3rd round pick at this point, maybe less. Thomson and JBD will both require waivers at the beginning of the 2023-24 season. Thomson has not cracked one of the weakest defensive cores in the league that has a particularly strong need for help on the right side.

Ultimately, the deal from Ottawa's side of things is 1 year Debrincat, Thomson, and a protected 1st for 2 years of both Chychrun and Vejmelka (at below market value cap hits), and Arizona taking the final year of Zaitsev's contract.

Vejmelka is not a backup goalie either. Coyotes need a goalie of the future. Sogard is it.

He was never inferred to be a backup. He is being acquired to form a 1A/B tandem with Forsberg.

If you put Sogaard in the trade, you likely have to remove a 1st, or there is no way the Senators would do that. Even then, I doubt they want to move Sogaard because they need someone to cycle into the tandem on a cheaper bridge contract at one point.