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How much retention is needed for him to have value

Created by: BeautifulIdiot
Team: 2022-23 Vancouver Canucks
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 16, 2023
Published: Apr. 16, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Its no secret that OEL's contract sucks, but how bad does it suck? and if he were bought out this summer how much would he resign for? personally, I would rather trade him and be stuck with some retention, because a 3.5M cap hit for 4 seasons is better than buying him out and the overall cap impact being greater, Suter in his last year with MIN had 19 points in 56 games and cost 7.5M against the cap, he was bought out. OEL did 22 points in 54 games. Suter resigned for 3.65M, he was also playing with a significantly better partner in spurgeon and Dumba. I think that at half retained OEL has neutral value, and a team would be willing to take him on, am I crazy?
Trades
VAN
    Future Considerations
    ANA
    1. Ekman-Larsson, Oliver ($3,630,000 retained)
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    2023
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    2025
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    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    24$82,500,000$76,412,917$1,250,000$1,782,500$6,087,083
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
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    $950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
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    C, LW
    UFA - 2
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    $6,650,000$6,650,000
    RW
    UFA - 3
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    $875,000$875,000
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    RFA - 1
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    $5,250,000$5,250,000
    C, LW, RW
    UFA - 1
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    $4,950,000$4,950,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 4
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    $750,000$750,000
    LW
    UFA - 1
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    $925,000$925,000
    LW
    RFA - 2
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    $4,150,000$4,150,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 2
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    $825,000$825,000
    LW
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    RW, LW
    RFA - 2
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    C
    UFA - 2
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    $762,500$762,500
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    $7,850,000$7,850,000
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    UFA - 5
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    $6,000,000$6,000,000
    RD
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    UFA - 2
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    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    G
    UFA - 4
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    $2,026,667$2,026,667
    LD
    RFA - 1
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    $4,400,000$4,400,000
    RD
    RFA - 2
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    $750,000$750,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $922,500$922,500
    RD
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $1,800,000$1,800,000
    RD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $750,000$750,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 1
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    $750,000$750,000
    LD
    UFA - 1
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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    $1,500,000$1,500,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 1
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    $4,750,000$4,750,000
    LW, RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $3,500,000$3,500,000
    LW, RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
    $3,250,000$3,250,000
    LW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
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    $2,500,000$2,500,000
    RD
    UFA - 3

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    Apr. 16, 2023 at 6:10 p.m.
    #1
    Ex Nucks fan
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    Just buy him out next year
    Apr. 16, 2023 at 6:12 p.m.
    #2
    Tony Ferguson Fan
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    Sutter was decent devensively, OEL isnt.
    Apr. 16, 2023 at 6:13 p.m.
    #3
    Thread Starter
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    Quoting: Aaron_Dell_Pickle
    Sutter was decent devensively, OEL isnt.


    OEL has been defencively responcible in the past, just not when paired with Myers
    Apr. 16, 2023 at 6:14 p.m.
    #4
    Ktownchef
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    Edited Apr. 16, 2023 at 6:31 p.m.
    There is no amount you'd get to for a team to want OEL. You'd be better off just buying him out.

    Your comments on the top about how it would be better to have him retained at 3.5 for 4 years rather then buy him out is better but I totally disagree. Here is OEL in a buyout.

    First year he costs nothing 147k
    Second year 2.3 mil
    3rd and 4th year 4.8 mil
    5th - 8th year 2.1 mil

    In the next two years you save 7 million and 5 million while the team is tight against the cap.
    Yes years 3 and 4 suck but that's only 1.3 more then your proposal of retaining. Btw the wild almost won the west with 12 million in dead cap so you can win around buyouts.
    Here is where the rubber meets the road. Yes 2.1 cap hit for 4 years isn't ideal for for crying out loud its only 2.1 million. Only JT Miller and Hughes are on the books at this point. Surely 5 years from now when the cap is pushing 100 million the Canucks could work around a 2.1 million cap loss.
    Apr. 16, 2023 at 6:16 p.m.
    #5
    Future Ducks legend
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    Edited Apr. 16, 2023 at 6:28 p.m.
    Per the Athletic player cards, his market value is $4.4 mil, so retain him down to between 4 and 4.5 million and you should be able to find a taker. Its his NMC that is the real kicker.

    Edit: sorry, that was last years value, let me try to find this years. This year his contract has a surplus value of -7.8 million, meaning he contibuted as much as a league minimum player. Maybe on his reputation as a defenseman you might be able to move him by retaining 50% without adding picks, but I can't see who specifically would take him. Maybe Los Angeles would take him at 50% for something minor like one of their excess depth RHD guys.
    BeautifulIdiot liked this.
    Apr. 16, 2023 at 7:33 p.m.
    #6
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    It is an interesting thought. He's not all bad, if there was a team without a power play QB he could fit in that role well. I think they try him in a 3rd pair and rehab his confidence, then if he has a good year you could probably retain
    BeautifulIdiot liked this.
    Apr. 16, 2023 at 7:59 p.m.
    #7
    Thread Starter
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    Quoting: Ktownchef
    There is no amount you'd get to for a team to want OEL. You'd be better off just buying him out.

    Your comments on the top about how it would be better to have him retained at 3.5 for 4 years rather then buy him out is better but I totally disagree. Here is OEL in a buyout.

    First year he costs nothing 147k
    Second year 2.3 mil
    3rd and 4th year 4.8 mil
    5th - 8th year 2.1 mil

    In the next two years you save 7 million and 5 million while the team is tight against the cap.
    Yes years 3 and 4 suck but that's only 1.3 more then your proposal of retaining. Btw the wild almost won the west with 12 million in dead cap so you can win around buyouts.
    Here is where the rubber meets the road. Yes 2.1 cap hit for 4 years isn't ideal for for crying out loud its only 2.1 million. Only JT Miller and Hughes are on the books at this point. Surely 5 years from now when the cap is pushing 100 million the Canucks could work around a 2.1 million cap loss.


    thats a fair point, but the ability to not have him on the books outweighs that, and we can only project the cap, we cant say for sure what it will be, thats up to batman to decide, I also think that out best shot to win would be when the cap hits 4.8M and the 3 years after, that would be almost 21M in lost cap that we would be dealing with for 4 years, I think he could be bought out next summer, but this was more to theorize the idea of trading him and not retaining
     
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