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Spread the Landy LTIR across the middle 6

Created by: HockeyScotty
Team: 2023-24 Colorado Avalanche
Initial Creation Date: May 10, 2023
Published: May 10, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
It is tempting to want to replace the LTIR money with a big FA signing (O'Reilly/Tarasenko/etc) but then we are right back where we left off last year with no depth...

Losing Landy means we have to re-sign Compher long-term; but put him in a place he can succeed in the top 6. Moving Rantanen to Center with JTC on his wing means we get the best of both worlds: Rantanen's playmaking with JTC's faceoff skills and his RH shot on the line. Putting Kiviranta with them gives them someone with potential and solid defensive acumen so that this line can be a "matchup" line as well.

Obviously we are banking on Nooch returning and being on the top line. Until that gets resolved there isn't much we can do otherwise.

Building a third line around Newhook as a full time center (who isn't ready to be the 2C yet) gives us depth in the bottom six. Miles Wood as physical presence and Malgin has earned more TOI after his debut season for the Avs last year.

The 4th line needs to be rebuilt after injuries and contract expiration to Cogliano and Helm. LOC remains and he has proven effective at maximizing his 9 minutes per night; and more and the law of diminishing returns sets in. Meyer moves into a regular role and I like giving Foudy the first crack at making the NHL roster between him and college free agents: Polin and Pavel. The darkhorse is Olausson who didn't make a big dent in his AHL season last year but could surprise with a great camp. Meyers can always move to 4C if one of the wingers makes the cuts.

On the blueline, extending Byram long term sets the top 5; then we promote Malinski who shined in his AHL trial over 14 games (7 reg/7playoff) scoring 10 points after being a leader in the NCAA. With Merkley, Aamodt, and Hunt in the "tweener" zone between AHL/NHL I wouldn't overspend in offseason free agency.

The Avs can't accrue cap space for the Trade Deadline with Landy on LTIR so might as well spend up to the cap; while having some flexibility for call-ups when needed.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,000,000
2$1,250,000
2$950,000
5$5,000,000
3$925,000
3$925,000
3$925,000
3$925,000
3$925,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$3,750,000
1$2,000,000
2$2,000,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
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2024
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2025
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$83,500,000$82,667,500$637,500$137,500$832,500
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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Lehkonen, Artturi
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 4
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MacKinnon, Nathan
$12,600,000$12,600,000
C
NMC
UFA - 8
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Nichushkin, Valeri
$6,125,000$6,125,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 7
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Compher, J.T.
$3,750,000$3,750,000
C, RW
UFA - 5
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Rantanen, Mikko
$9,250,000$9,250,000
RW, C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Kiviranta, Joel
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Wood, Miles
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LW
UFA - 6
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Newhook, Alex
$2,000,000$2,000,000
C, LW
RFA - 4
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Malgin, Denis
$950,000$950,000
LW, RW
UFA
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Meyers, Ben
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
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Waivers ExemptFoudy, Jean-Luc
$847,500$847,500 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
C
RFA - 2
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O'Connor, Logan
$1,050,000$1,050,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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Byram, Bowen
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
RFA - 2
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Makar, Cale
$9,000,000$9,000,000
RD
UFA - 4
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Georgiev, Alexandar
$3,400,000$3,400,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
Girard, Samuel
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 4
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Manson, Josh
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 3
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Francouz, Pavel
$2,000,000$2,000,000
G
UFA - 1
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Toews, Devon
$4,100,000$4,100,000
LD
UFA - 1
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Waivers ExemptMalinski, Sam
$850,000$850,000
RD
RFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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MacDermid, Kurtis
$987,500$987,500
LD/RD, LW
UFA - 1
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Landeskog, Gabriel
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 6
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Waivers ExemptPolin, Jason
$870,000$870,000 (Performance Bonus$80,000$80K)
RW
RFA - 1

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May 10, 2023 at 10:58 a.m.
#1
TJTwolf
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JTC is worse at wing than C. He's a 3C in reality (tweener 2/3 at best). In a way I feel for him because being the Avs Swiss army knife for so long has maybe cost him the stability over the years to ever truly develop at one position. To a degree Jost suffered in the same way, and worryingly it may also happen with Newhook. Unfortunately I think JTC is gone as he'll want his pay day and want far too much for a 3C which is where he really belongs. This would be acceptable if they could get him to take the lower dollars for long term as you have it. He can drop back to 3C later. The idea is arguably not bad (if I were going to chance it I'd keep JTC at 2C, Nich as his RW, and Kivi or Lehk as his LW, leave Rants on the first for Mack's LH face offs, that's as much of a C as he is) in spreading the money around more but I'm not sure this is the best execution.
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May 10, 2023 at 11:08 a.m.
#2
HockeyScotty
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Great points.

Yeah it's a bad combination of timing with Landy out, JTC contract up, lack of FA options, minimal cap increase, and lack of assets to swing a trade. Best thing we can do is build a 2-3 year window so when Landy returns we can return to elite contender status or next year's FA market brings help.

While I'm not in favor of dealing Girard like most; having Behrens coming up in 2 years time could make LD puck-movers a surplus while Behrens would offer cap flexibility on his entry-level deal. Just don't see many options open up this year to return us a solid 2C.
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May 10, 2023 at 11:23 a.m.
#3
TJTwolf
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
Great points.

Yeah it's a bad combination of timing with Landy out, JTC contract up, lack of FA options, minimal cap increase, and lack of assets to swing a trade. Best thing we can do is build a 2-3 year window so when Landy returns we can return to elite contender status or next year's FA market brings help.

While I'm not in favor of dealing Girard like most; having Behrens coming up in 2 years time could make LD puck-movers a surplus while Behrens would offer cap flexibility on his entry-level deal. Just don't see many options open up this year to return us a solid 2C.


Agreed on basically all of that, especially the fact that Girard is now less of a need to be dealt so unless someone offers really good value it's better to hold onto him for now. Though hell it'd be a nice surprise if the Escrow thing is cleared this year somehow and we get a shock rise as well!
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May 10, 2023 at 11:29 a.m.
#4
bcooke
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
Great points.

Yeah it's a bad combination of timing with Landy out, JTC contract up, lack of FA options, minimal cap increase, and lack of assets to swing a trade. Best thing we can do is build a 2-3 year window so when Landy returns we can return to elite contender status or next year's FA market brings help.

While I'm not in favor of dealing Girard like most; having Behrens coming up in 2 years time could make LD puck-movers a surplus while Behrens would offer cap flexibility on his entry-level deal. Just don't see many options open up this year to return us a solid 2C.


I'd like to see Behrens with the Eagles in '23 and then given a shot to join the NHL roster at camp in '24. And with the depth of this year's draft, I'd be interested in moving one the LDs for a middle 6 forward and a 1st if possible to build depth. Bring in lower cost LD this summer to compete with Hunt for 3rd pair minutes.

IMO, need to trade Toews if he isn't getting an extension that works. Or Girard before his M-NTC kicks in. Not that I want to, it just makes sense from a roster construction standpoint with Behrens potential to step in for '24 when Landy may be back.
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May 10, 2023 at 11:29 a.m.
#5
HockeyScotty
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Quoting: TJTwolf
Agreed on basically all of that, especially the fact that Girard is now less of a need to be dealt so unless someone offers really good value it's better to hold onto him for now. Though hell it'd be a nice surprise if the Escrow thing is cleared this year somehow and we get a shock rise as well!


I know, that is why I was rooting for Rangers, Leafs, and Kings to keep advancing but that didn't work out. Not sure how much playoff revenues rise with Panthers-Canes, Knights-tbd. Maybe Kraken are the only team that will create tons of new revenue but the Eastern division heavyweights (revenue wise) are all pretty much gone (unless there is a miracle comeback from Leafs). Oilers could carry the Canada fanbase with McDavid possibly.
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May 10, 2023 at 11:32 a.m.
#6
HockeyScotty
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Quoting: bcooke
I'd like to see Behrens with the Eagles in '23 and then given a shot to join the NHL roster at camp in '24. And with the depth of this year's draft, I'd be interested in moving one the LDs for a middle 6 forward and a 1st if possible to build depth. Bring in lower cost LD this summer to compete with Hunt for 3rd pair minutes.

IMO, need to trade Toews if he isn't getting an extension that works. Or Girard before his M-NTC kicks in. Not that I want to, it just makes sense from a roster construction standpoint with Behrens potential to step in for '24 when Landy may be back.


Yeah I am torn on Behrens next year; I want DU to have him but would like to see him in AHL. He probably needs another year of physical development before jumping in to the AHL.
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May 10, 2023 at 11:37 a.m.
#7
TJTwolf
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
I know, that is why I was rooting for Rangers, Leafs, and Kings to keep advancing but that didn't work out. Not sure how much playoff revenues rise with Panthers-Canes, Knights-tbd. Maybe Kraken are the only team that will create tons of new revenue but the Eastern division heavyweights (revenue wise) are all pretty much gone (unless there is a miracle comeback from Leafs). Oilers could carry the Canada fanbase with McDavid possibly.


Kraken, (maybe Knights) and Oilers are probably the only ones holding any kind of serious revenue now at a guess (bar a Leafs miracle comeback). So at least one of those is gone anyway, not sure how big Dallas's support is. The East is all pretty much low now (bar the aforementioned miracle). This is the one year from a neutral standpoint you wanted the Rangers, Leafs and Bruins to all advance, even if in any other year you'd be supporting the underdogs and laughing at the results (sorry to fans of those teams but as neutrals most of us would!)
May 10, 2023 at 11:40 a.m.
#8
bcooke
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
Yeah I am torn on Behrens next year; I want DU to have him but would like to see him in AHL. He probably needs another year of physical development before jumping in to the AHL.


That may be the case. Might be looking at '25 for him in the NHL at the earliest. Think he is going to need a year in the AHL before making the jump.
 
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