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Forechecking 3rd Line

Created by: TheTradeIs1For1
Team: 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 13, 2023
Published: Jun. 15, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Matthews = $13,417,500 x 6 year extension
Nylander = $9,000,000 x 8 year extension

These deals are an extra ~ $4,000,000 million on the cap which is covered off by Brodie’s deal expiring. With an additional increase on the cap likely in 2024-25 along with the Acciari, Schenn and Tavares’s drop in salary there should be room to continue to add and resign Liljegren/Knies long term.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
4$3,125,000
4$1,100,000
2$2,750,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
7$5,500,000
3$3,000,000
3$1,850,000
2$1,750,000
1$1,500,000
1$1,000,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. Colton, Ross [RFA Rights]
TBL
  1. 2023 1st round pick (BOS)
2.
TOR
  1. 2023 3rd round pick (NJD)
3.
TOR
  1. 2023 2nd round pick (NYR)
CHI
  1. Hollowell, Mac [RFA Rights]
  2. Murray, Matt
  3. 2024 1st round pick (TOR)
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the NYR
Logo of the NJD
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2024
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the OTT
2025
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,500,000$83,484,783$0$0$15,217

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 2
$3,000,000$3,000,000
LW, C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
$3,125,000$3,125,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
$1,850,000$1,850,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,100,000$1,100,000
C, LW
RFA - 2
$1,750,000$1,750,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$7,500,000$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,750,000$2,750,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,400,000$1,400,000
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$766,667$766,667
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$800,000$800,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,100,000$1,100,000
RD
RFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,150,000$1,150,000
RW, C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$762,500$762,500
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$850,000$850,000 ($0$0$0$0)
LW, C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$796,667$796,667 ($0$0$0$0)
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$834,167$834,167 ($0$0$0$0)
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$850,000$850,000 ($0$0$0$0)
LD
UFA

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Jun. 15, 2023 at 11:49 a.m.
#1
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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I don't know why Leafs fans hate their own. Jarnkrok at 2.1m is great value, so you trade him for a more expensive, probably no better Colton and give up a first rounder.
Jun. 15, 2023 at 11:51 a.m.
#2
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Quoting: palhal
I don't know why Leafs fans hate their own. Jarnkrok at 2.1m is great value, so you trade him for a more expensive, probably no better Colton and give up a first rounder.


I was going to have the exact opposite comment. I don't think Jarnkrok is any good and not worth a 3rd.

Is his play better than his numbers? He seems like a low 3rd, high 4th line guy.
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Jun. 15, 2023 at 11:59 a.m.
#3
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: Victor24
I was going to have the exact opposite comment. I don't think Jarnkrok is any good and not worth a 3rd.

Is his play better than his numbers? He seems like a low 3rd, high 4th line guy.


Jarnkrok....6th in Leafs points among forwards, 6th in Leafs goal scoring among forwards. 5th in plus minus among forwards. Don't know how his numbers make him a low 3rd or high 4th liner guy, except for maybe his salary.
Jun. 15, 2023 at 12:06 p.m.
#4
Thread Starter
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Quoting: palhal
I don't know why Leafs fans hate their own. Jarnkrok at 2.1m is great value, so you trade him for a more expensive, probably no better Colton and give up a first rounder.


Colton can play centre, forechecks much better than Jarnkrok and actually plays physical. Also, Colton averaged about 12 mins of ice in Tampa where Jarnkrok averaged 14 mins in Toronto with an incredibly high shooting percentage, over 6% higher than his average. Next season Jarnkrok likely drops back to 10-12 goals again and Colton in Toronto getting 2 extra mins per game likely see his point totals increase slightly while also providing additional value down the middle and physicality.

Quoting: Victor24
I was going to have the exact opposite comment. I don't think Jarnkrok is any good and not worth a 3rd.

Is his play better than his numbers? He seems like a low 3rd, high 4th line guy.


Exactly my point. Did Jarnkrok out perform his deal this season, yes. Will he continue to do that, maybe. Right now I think Leaf’s have too many “Jarnkrok’s”, he’s too vanilla. What is Jarnkrok going to do in a scrum, nothing. Yes he works hard, has a bit of speed and gets on the forecheck but rarely ever does he finish a check on a forecheck. He just gets there then does the big turn away to go after the puck in another direction when it gets moved up ice. It’s so easy for a defenceman to just move the puck up ice with that type of “zone” forechecking.
Jun. 15, 2023 at 12:13 p.m.
#5
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: TheTradeIs1For1
Colton can play centre, forechecks much better than Jarnkrok and actually plays physical. Also, Colton averaged about 12 mins of ice in Tampa where Jarnkrok averaged 14 mins in Toronto with an incredibly high shooting percentage, over 6% higher than his average. Next season Jarnkrok likely drops back to 10-12 goals again and Colton in Toronto getting 2 extra mins per game likely see if point totals increase slightly while also providing additional value down the middle and physicality.

Forget the physicality which in IMO is mostly nonsense....often means a player or his teammates doesn't have the puck when he's on the ice. Colton was 7th in forwards scoring, 6th in goal scoring, and 9th among the forwards in plus minutes. Certainly, when on the ice, teams weren't afraid of Colton and how he was going to turn a game around. So they seem to be a "about the same" at best Is that worth an extra 1m and cap and dropping 60 spots in the draft.
As I said, Leafs fans hate their own, but somehow bottom enders on other teams are soooooooo much better.
Jun. 15, 2023 at 12:15 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: palhal
Jarnkrok....6th in Leafs points among forwards, 6th in Leafs goal scoring among forwards. 5th in plus minus among forwards. Don't know how his numbers make him a low 3rd or high 4th liner guy, except for maybe his salary.


Rankings are against other forwards with 500+ min, 5v5.

He was 187th in expected goals (8th on Tor)
178th in Corsi % (7th on Tor)
196th in on-ice expected goal against per 60 (7th on Tor)
273rd in on-ice expected high-danger shots against per 60 (11th on Tor)
178th in created xgoals (7th on Tor)

He mostly played with Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Engvall, and Kampf

With the top line guys he was good but guys like Bunting and Kerfoot were better. With Engvall and Kampf, Jarnkrok was bad.

Now, it is possible he is just better with more responsibility but it is more likely he is a product of great linemates than causing their betterment (by a statistical margin).

Edit: He doesn't play in the dirty areas, which can be seen as vanilla.
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Jun. 15, 2023 at 12:19 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: palhal


This is about building a team. You can’t tell me a bottom 6 of:
Knies Colton Hathaway
Holmberg Monahan Acciari

Isn’t better than:
Bunting O’Reilly Acciari
ZAR Kampf Lafferty

I think the first bottom 6 brings so much more to the table both offensively as a whole and a style of play perspective - with respect to pace/speed. Leafs need to get faster O’Reilly, Kampf, Bunting and co aren’t the answer.
Jun. 15, 2023 at 12:22 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: Victor24
Rankings are against other forwards with 500+ min, 5v5.

He was 187th in expected goals (8th on Tor)
178th in Corsi % (7th on Tor)
196th in on-ice expected goal against per 60 (7th on Tor)
273rd in on-ice expected high-danger shots against per 60 (11th on Tor)
178th in created xgoals (7th on Tor)

He mostly played with Tavares, Matthews, Marner, Engvall, and Kampf

With the top line guys he was good but guys like Bunting and Kerfoot were better. With Engvall and Kampf, Jarnkrok was bad.

Now, it is possible he is just better with more responsibility but it is more likely he is a product of great linemates than causing their betterment (by a statistical margin).

Edit: He doesn't play in the dirty areas, which can be seen as vanilla.


This is exactly my point. He is adequately paid for what he bring but when he wasn’t playing with Matthews, Marner, Tavares or Nylander. He brought nothing to the table. Just so soft. Easily pushed around. It’s one thing to be the first person on the forecheck, which Jarnkrok often was, but he didn’t do anything when he got there.
Jun. 15, 2023 at 12:25 p.m.
#9
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: TheTradeIs1For1
Quoting: palhal


This is about building a team. You can’t tell me a bottom 6 of:
Knies Colton Hathaway
Holmberg Monahan Acciari

Isn’t better than:
Bunting O’Reilly Acciari
ZAR Kampf Lafferty

I think the first bottom 6 brings so much more to the table both offensively as a whole and a style of play perspective - with respect to pace/speed. Leafs need to get faster O’Reilly, Kampf, Bunting and co aren’t the answer.


Gee, I never said anything about retaining Bunting, ROR or Acciari, ZAR or Kampf. Though I think Lafferty is fine at 1.15m....and Lafferty is quick
Actually I think the centres you selected for the Leafs are pretty weak. Rodriques and Colton are more suited at wing. And if Rodriques is truly a 2C as you slotted him, he certainly gets more than 3m
Jun. 15, 2023 at 12:32 p.m.
#10
Birddog
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E-Rod is not a top 6 player. He might be the most inconsistent player in the league. One night he looks great and the next awful. I wouldn’t touch him. I think there was interest from the Leafs back in his Buffalo days when he was making near league minimum, but he is not a top 6 center.

If you watched Hathaway in Boston you would have seen his limitations. Boston roles 4 lines and plays with pace — he couldn’t. He was better in Washington where they play the 4th line less and they just go out and bang and crash. I wouldn’t touch him, he’s over-rated, but you certainly don’t want him on your third line unless you want to kill it’s offensive potential.
Jun. 15, 2023 at 12:52 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: Newtown
E-Rod is not a top 6 player. He might be the most inconsistent player in the league. One night he looks great and the next awful. I wouldn’t touch him. I think there was interest from the Leafs back in his Buffalo days when he was making near league minimum, but he is not a top 6 center.

If you watched Hathaway in Boston you would have seen his limitations. Boston roles 4 lines and plays with pace — he couldn’t. He was better in Washington where they play the 4th line less and they just go out and bang and crash. I wouldn’t touch him, he’s over-rated, but you certainly don’t want him on your third line unless you want to kill it’s offensive potential.


I like ERod as a 3rd line center. Not top 6 though, agreed.
 
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