Vegas has shown zero attachment to any player who doesn't have a NMC. If they see a chance to repeat by moving an expansion OG, they will do it.

This is close to cap in/cap out. San Jose's plan would be to flip McNabb and W.Karlsson for additional draft picks. W.Karlsson might require retention, or for San Jose to take back a contract. He still has a lot of term at a high cap hit. 53 points is not strong production in today's NHL where scoring is highly inflated. It's low end 2nd line numbers. So I think it's possible that he would not be moveable at nearly 6M per with 3 years left on a deal that takes him to almost 34 years old.

I assume Lehner will remain on LTIR for his contract due to mental health issues, but if that isn't the case, add him into this deal with additional sweeteners for San Jose.

Both Vegas players have partial NTCs, which might kibosh this trade. We'll obviously assume that San Jose is not on those lists. If San Jose is on those lists, there would still be a possibility that San Jose and Vegas could work together to see if they can send Karlsson and McNabb to third teams for assets+cap considerations from San Jose. Make it into two three way deals.

San Jose will get a couple 2nd or 3rd round picks for McNabb. Karlsson will either play in their top 6 for the next few years as a warm body, or they can get a return for him with cap considerations. People will bring up how a 1st and a few 2nd/3rd round picks isn't enough for Karlsson, but it's pretty clear that the market for him is not very strong. Otherwise, San Jose would have been able to move him at the deadline. Teams are obviously spooked by his term and his level of play prior to this season.